LSU Vs. Alabama For BCS Championship In Less Than Nine Hours

Here we are !  Less then 24 hours away from kickoff of what we have all been waiting for. Nine months from Spring ball to Summer Camp to non conference openers to conference play has all led to this one game for it all. For me, I picked LSU way back in August so there is some personal pride at stake in that I like being respected for being correct.

I don’t know anyone who works harder to be as accurate as humanly possible. For this particular game, I went back and watched the 1st meeting 4 times. Then, even though I saw all of their regular season games I went back to a few and watched them over. I wanted a sample of beginning middle and end.

So for LSU, I picked Oregon, West Virginia and Georgia. For Alabama: Penn State , Arkansas, Auburn. And after hours and hours of processing information I came out with the write up last week that I believed LSU was still the better team and would win tomorrow evening.

But I just cant ignore the possibility that there is some omnipotent sports God somewhere in Vegas who knows more then all of us. And he gives us loud signs of who is going to win each contest. This week there were two games where if you looked at the x’s and o’s there was a clear separation on at least the winner of the contest yet alone covering the Vegas spread. But some unexplained Vegas line movements screamed that the other side was the correct side if you were looking for the winner And all of that film study and studying match ups were all for  nothing in these particular situations.

The first Game was the Orange Bowl : Clemson opened as a 3.5-4 point favorite in the game. When I first saw the Vegas line I couldn’t help but think Vegas was giving us an early Christmas present. On one hand you had the ACC Champion who came storming in off a blow out win over nationally ranked Virginia Tech ( for the second time this year).

It appeared even to people who are around the game everyday that Clemson indeed had righted the ship and were poised to become a top 5 team heading into 2012. On the other hand you had West Virginia who won the Big East through a tie breaker and had to win its last three games just to get in. It also had a 26 point blow out los to Syracuse and a loss to Louisville on its schedule.

All of that aside here is where the story gets interesting:

81% of the public was going to the window in Vegas and betting Clemson  to win the game and 91% were betting the money line. SO basically 9 out of every 10 people who placed a bet on the Orange Bowl bet Clemson to win. Yet the Vegas line went from 4 to 3. An inverse line movement. Now some may say the sharps ( Professional betters ) were coming in and betting sizeable wagers on West Virginia but at those numbers it doesn’t matter what they were betting the line should have gone the other way. It turned out you saw an absolute blow out like everyone expected. It just wasn’t the correct team winning.

Game two ended a few hours ago. Denver was playing what most thought was a difficult task to say the least. Denver’s quarterback Tim Tebow had struggled mightily the last 3 games having trouble even getting first downs against mediocre teams. It was thought by many Tebow may be pulled from the game today at some point and it was probably his last game as a starter. The Vegas line has gone from 7.5 to 9as of yesterday. Under double digits it seemed like a strong  wager thinking if Pittsburgh just scored double digits there was a chance they could cover the game easily.

At that high number the spread wasn’t as one sided. 64% were betting Pittsburgh but it was the money line at 69%  where people thought there money was pretty safe. I mean all the heavily favored Steelers had to do is win the game. And if you asked anyone to pick one of the two teams with their dinner riding on it I am sure you would have got more like the same 9 out of 10 picking Pittsburgh. On paper this was a complete mismatch. Pittsburgh high ranked defense against the struggling Broncos. Two hours before kick off the Vegas line dropped from 9 to 7.

In the gambling world that is a monumental drop. It usually only happens when a star player doesn’t play. In fact the talk on twitter was the Steelers Quarterback Ben Rothlisberger out ? He had hurt his ankle a few weeks back so it wasn’t a crazy thought. What else could have made this line drop ?  Tebow has the game of his life. Throws for 30 yards and Denver wins the game and moves on.

Which brings me to tomorrows BCS Title game. LSU, who already beat Alabama in its home stadium opened up as a 1 point favorite. Since the line has come out. 62% of the public has have bet LSU on the money line. Over the last 10 days or so despite money pouring in on LSU, the favorite has now become a two point underdog. A again monumental line swing. Is someone hurt ? Was someone out the first game that Is back  did they change the venue back to Alabama from this basically being a home game for LSU ?

What does Vegas know ?   And have they always known ?  Let me say this. I do not think tomorrow nights game is fixed. But we would be naive to think that a game has never been tampered with. All we need to do is go back to the Arizona State point shaving scandal in the NCAA or Cardinal Ohara’s own Tim Donaghy being involved in providing information on NBA games. Where there is human behavior there is deceit. Hey it’s the world we live in. But it will be interesting to see if perhaps cracking the books on the x and o method I have uncovered Vegas’s little secret.

Let’s hope Not……….. Go LSU

14 thoughts on “LSU Vs. Alabama For BCS Championship In Less Than Nine Hours

  1. Good stuff Charlies but I am not a betting man and will be watching the game closely for there are about 10 Players in this Championship Game that will be in the Top 100 Selections of the 2012 NFL Draft that interest me and there may be a player or 2 who end up being drafted by the Eagles…

    Top Alabama players to Watch
    RB – T Richardson (5-11 225lbs) A top #5-#10 Pick (Top RB in Draft)
    CB – Dre Kirpatrick (6-2 195lbs) A top # 8-15th Pick (Most physical CB)
    OLB/DE – Cortney Upshaw (6-2 260lbs) A top 20 Pick (perfect for a 3-4 scheme and can move very well for a big LB)
    ILB – Donte Hightower (6-4 260lbs) Mid to late 1st Rounder ( A stud and maybe an Eagle come April, is a downhill LB, not great in pass coverage, think of a Jeremiah Trotter type.)
    SS – Mark Barron (6-2 220 lbs) Mid to late 1st Rounder (Best SS in the Draft could also be an Eagle come April)
    FS – Robert Lester (6-2 210lbs) 3 Rd Rounder (under the radar since he plays with Barron, very athletic and could be a great pick-up in 3rd Round)
    DT – Josh Chapman (6-1 310lbs) 3rd Rounder (typical Alabama,tough-hard nosed DT)

    LSU Tigers Plays to Watch
    CB – M Claiborne (6-0 190lbs) Top 5 Selection (Best cover guy)
    DE – S Montgomery (6-4 250lbs) Late 1st/Early 2nd Round Pick (Projected as a pass rushing OLB, probably best suited for a 3-4 scheme and needs to bulk up, but is very athletic with long arms)
    WR – R Randle (6-3 210lbs) Mid-late 2nd Round Pick (has some real upside and could be one of Eagles 2nd Rd Selections depending if they decide to let D-Jax walk)

  2. Good Start for Alabama…
    I tell you what as football fan, this Bowl Season has been the most enjoyable and exciting in recent memory, there have been some great games and performances all over the map.. The Future of Football is in good hands.. Lots of talented players coming into the NFL that if they receive good coaching on good teams can really be the next generation of Big time players in the NFL..

  3. Is it just me or do both of these college defenses tackle better then our beloved Eagles who call themselves professionals? Please Reid skip the high motor bullshit reaches this year and just grab somebody on either of these defenses (safety from Alabama would be perfect)

  4. Who doesn’t think that (#30) MLB Donte Hightower would look great in SIlver & Green.. This guy is all over the place making Tackles Sideline to sideline, Calling the Defenses,Setting up the Alignments, firing up his teammates.. Eagels should grab him with that #15 Selection.. He’s 6’4″ and 255-260lbs and is more atheletic than any LB on the Eagles Roster..

  5. Paulman, would Hightower fit best in the 4-3? For some reason he seems like he is made for the 3-4 in the NFL?

    Imagine having Trent Richardson back up Shady…I know it would never happen but that guy is a machine.

  6. Brett Musberger has got to be one of the top 3 football announcers in the game – can we get him and Bellicheck in the same booth – (Keith Jackson will always be #1)

  7. Pheags88 -The SEC is the best division in all of college football and we need Alabama’s D-coordinator to come here and show our boys how to get it done. LSU only crossed midfield 1 time the entire game! Good job Saban and Bama!

  8. draftcountdown.com has the birds taking Birfict in rd #1 is hightower in the draft this year? not listed – Upshaw from bama is #1 OLB

    there is a DT out of washington that is 337 and runs a 5.2 ta’amu there is a 6’5 350 junior at memphis – if he comes out this draft.. only 107 days till draft

  9. Navy, I agree. It is a must that they get one of these top LB’s & one of the big boys for DT, with their top two picks. I would cream if they got Stills from Penn State & Vontaze, or either Hightower, or Upshaw. That would be sweet & a great start.

  10. I think Hightower can play and play very effectively as aMLB in a 4-3 scheme
    I believe Upshaw would be better of as a OLB a 3-4 Scheme and reminds me of a little of a Terrell Suggs/James Harrison/D Ware type. He can put his hands down and rush the Passer from the down position or stand up and move around.. What I am not to sure about in his game is his pass coverage ability and unfortunateluy, LSU QB and offense was so bad last evening, that we didn’t get a good chance to the ss the Bama LB’s have to make many plays in the passing game..

  11. Depending on where you look, there are various mock drafts pointing at the birds taking a linebacker….truthfully I will believe it when I see it.

    Some list Kuechly from BC, Cole from NC State, Acho from Texas and Franklin at ARK as possible fits. I agree Pman, I like Hightower or Upshaw….there are plenty of days to debate the draft, but who can really predict what this FO is thinking or will do?

  12. If I were a “Fantasy GM”, my 1st 5 Rounds would go something like this

    1st Rd (#15th Overall – A) DT Devon Still (Penn State) or B) MLB Hightower
    2nd Rd (#45th f/Cards- A) MLB Burfict (NC State) or B) SS M Barron (Bama)
    2nd Rd (#47th Overall- A) OLB Lewis (Oklahoma) or B) CB S Gilmore (South Carolina)
    3rd Rd (#79th Overall- A) WR D Jones (UNC) or B) OT Nate Potter (Boise St
    4th Rd (#101 d/Bucs)- A) OG K Zietler (WIsconsin ir B) DE C Johnson (Virgina)
    4th Rd (#111 Overall)- A) SS H Smith (Notre Dame) or B) OLB T Nielson (Iowa)
    #5th Rd (#143 Overall)- A) TE R Ellison (USC) or B) WR J Adams (Arkansas)

  13. Ha Ha and a good one Greenfan,

    I should have prefaced by stating , “If I was the next Fantasy GM of the Eagles”

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