Close Up On Niners-Saints Game And The Pick

As we move deeper into the NFL playoffs, there are two ways to approach breaking down the game. There is the analytical approach which constitutes hours of watching film back, analyzing trends, stats, home record, road record, record during the day, record at night. Then there is the history of past games to factor it. How do warm weather teams play in the cold ?  How do teams that play in a dome play outside ? How do teams that play on artificial turf play on grass ?  And also through in Vegas line movements.

We will hear many NFL experts come out with stat after stat on who should win; and why they should win. Then there is the eye approach. What do you see with your own eyes ? Through all of the technical research out the window and pick your winners based on common sense and logic. Will the winner be the same on both approaches ? And if not what approach will work best  I have  decided to put in the extra work for the rest of the playoffs to in fact see is one approach better ten the other. Should be an interesting few weeks. So on to the first game:

New Orleans at San Francisco    Vegas Line New Orleans -3.5  Over /Under 47.5

New Orleans comes into this game is some people’s eyes the not so dark horse anymore to win it all. They are Green Bay with a power running game. San Francisco has by a lot of standards exceed everyone’s expectations by posting a 13-3 record ( 7-1 home ) thus earning the 1^st round bye. Both Coaches are high energy and their players love to put it on the line for them.

Interesting facts I uncovered. New Orleans 5 lowest point totals this year have all come on the road with 3 of the 5 coming on grass. The Saints have also NEVER won a road playoff game. The Super Bowl in 2010 was a neutral site. They have lost twice at Chicago, Minnesota, and last year’s upset at Seattle. They will be handling this trip different leaving two days early to get use to the two hour time difference. The temperature shouldn’t be a factor Saturday as the forecast calls for Sun and 65 degrees.

The 49ers come in well rested off a well earned bye. Their defense is allowing a stingy 14.3 points per game. Second only to Pittsburgh 14.2 points per game. Their run defense allows only 77.3 yards a game. They are one of the few defenses that may cause the  New Orleans offense  to slow down. The 49ers also have a solid run attack led b Frank Gore. His ability to move the chains, burn the clock and keep Drew Brees on the side lines will be key to the outcome of this matchup. The 49ers are an outstanding 6-0-1 against the Vegas spread at home.

ALL IMPORTANT VEGAS LINE MOVEMENT  ::: As of Tuesday Evening when this article was written.   87% of all tickets were New Orleans tickets to cover the spread. 77% have bet over the posted total . The line hasn’t moved and in some casinos has actually gone down making the 49ers the “sharp play” The over has gone from 47 to 47.5 so not enough to call it one way or the other yet.

The two approaches have very different results : When I was asked by someone to give my gut reaction I immediately thought of the game for 30 seconds and came up with a final score of New Orleans 28 San Francisco 17  That would give New Orleans and Under the Checks

When you analyze the tape, the trends and the Vegas line movement you get the exact opposite. Based on these numbers when you factor in New Orleans Road record ( 0-4 ) The fact San Francisco is fresh and is 6-0-1 at home against the spread. The fact that defense usually wins in these cases. And more importantly the sharp action being on San Francisco and somewhat the over you get something that absolutely fascinates me. I am very curious to break down the rest of the games both ways.

I want to take the rest of the playoffs, a small sample that it I sand see what approach made more money. This is a topic that all sports fans and gamblers alike I am sure will be curious to see the outcome of.. Lets se how the chips fall..I will be following my gut on these games and not the due diligence. Although  I promise to do as much work as I would on every other Sunday as I want the research to have integrity. Good Luck no matter what you choose.

I will come out with Denver at New England on Wednesday,  Houston at Baltimore on Thursday and NY at Green Bay on Friday….

Stats and research ; San Francisco 28  New Orleans 27

Instant Reaction      New Orleans    28 an Francisco  17