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Analyzing The Phillies: Vance Worley

2012 Expectations

Vance Worley was expected to be a dependable fourth starter in the pitching rotation. The 25-year old was a major surprise in the 2011 season, compiling an 11-3 record with an ERA of 3.01. Injuries to Roy Oswalt and Joe Blanton created an opportunity for Worley to prove he belonged in the big leagues, and he impressed the team so much that they felt confident penciling him in for the fourth starter’s spot in 2012, and declining their option on Oswalt.

2012 Performance

It was a rocky road for Worley this year. The righthander started strong, but battled an elbow injury throughout the season that made it increasingly difficult for him to pitch effectively and go deep into games. He finished the season with a 6-9 record and a 4.20 ERA before being shut down for the year at the end of August.

Before he suffered his injury, Worley was pitching quite well. In his first five starts, he put together a 2-1 record with a 1.97 ERA. Then in the middle of May, the team learned of his elbow problem and placed the young pitcher on the disabled list for a couple of weeks. While doctors revealed that Worley would need surgery to solve the problem, they also said it would be possible for him to return and play out the rest of the season.

Worley returned to the rotation in June, and pitched pretty well in his first five starts, going 1-2 with a 2.70 ERA. However, as time went on it was clear that the elbow injury was becoming more of an issue.

Worley struggled heavily in his final 11 starts. He went 1-2 with a 6.43 ERA in July, and 1-3 with a 5.23 ERA in August. In those final 11 games, he pitched more than six innings in just two of his starts, and allowed three runs or more in eight of them.

With the season all but a lost cause, the Phillies decided to do the right thing and shut their young starter down to begin to get him ready for 2013.

2013 Outlook

I expect Worley to bounce back with a strong season next year.

Before his elbow problem began to take a toll on his effectiveness, Worley was pitching very well and it looked as though his 2011 season wasn’t a one-year wonder.

While the 25-year old isn’t an ace, I believe he’s capable of being a quality third starter on any team, and he’s capable of winning more than 10 games while keeping his ERA somewhere in the 3.50 range. It’s going to be very important for him to meet those expectations. While the Phillies can count on Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee to give them excellent production, the same can’t be said of Roy Halladay. With Halladay’s health a serious question mark, it makes it even more important for Worley to bounce back and be a stabilizing force at the back end of the rotation.

As long as he’s healthy, the Phillies should receive excellent production from their fourth starter. The team is very fortunate to have a young, affordable, dependable pitcher like Worley around to help keep their starting rotation a deep one.

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Posted by on Oct 30 2012. Filed under BREAKING NEWS, News, Phillies. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

45 Comments for “Analyzing The Phillies: Vance Worley”

  1. Denny, while nobody is more ready for pitchers and catchers to report I don know that you will get much discussion on our number4 pitcher! I too look for a nice year from Worley. But right now our birds are a laughing stock and a Philly institution in AR is about to get fired! Our me first A.hols are starting to turn on one another…. The birds are a national story of dysfunction until the season is over.

    • I can’t believe I’m agreeing with you! O_o
      Worley should be fine. He’s the least of the Phillies worries!

  2. Jimmy wins the GG! not bad for a washed up dude! Since the birds are in the toilet I will say i’m ready for the hot stove league! I am saying a platoon of Ruff and Brown maybe… that combo should give us .280 with 35 HR’s and 90 RBI’s which would be better than Burrell and Ibanez did. Some say Hamilton may come on the cheap considering his flame out in Texas. Obviously Utley and Howard have to be themselves….that is a big if. The BP showed some signs of improvement towards teh end but they have to get an 8th inning guy… Madsen? Bullpen always seems to be a crap shoot for every team. There you go DCar you can go back to disagreeing with me

    • LMFBO!!! I’ll save it for after the free agency period cools down, & I see what your boy does, to improve this abortion of a line-up. Give me a month, or so! LOL!

  3. Early 2013 NL East Predictions

    #1) Nationals 94-68 (Winner)
    #2) Braves 91-71 (Wild-Card)
    #3) PHILLIES 85-77 (No PLayoffs- Manuel fired in June after slow start)
    #4) Mets 82-80
    #5) Marlins 76-86

    Nationals have too much Talent who are young, hungry and led by an agressive Mananger in Davey Johnson. If the stay healthy, I expect the Nats to be the class of the NL East for the next few Seasons as I predicted last Off-Season..

  4. As far as Worley goes,
    I see an 8-10 Game Winner and around a 3.75 ERA… Good quality Starts to keep the Phils in many ballgames, but a #4/#5 Starter, no more or no less..
    I think down the road he could be more effective in a set-up Role (7th Inning or so kind of like Chad Durbin was used)

  5. Fraud IF the queen had balls she would be king. Zimmerman seems to get hurt a lot and so does Desmond. Of course they have a good young nucleus but are now the hunted. Bryce Harper is due a sophomore slump, it’s a long season and shit happens. Free agency and trades haven’t even started yet, you have no idea what rosters will look like come April. So STFU

  6. Pman, a 3.75 ERA is not good enough for you to be the 4th/5th starter on a team? That is better than most teams’ 3rd starter.

    Worley should be fine next year hopefully injury free. In fact I have enough confidence in him that I would be fine with moving Cliff Lee.

  7. A 3.75 ERA is good Bugs, Unfortunately the Phils will average 3 Runs a Game again so it’s not good enough..If Worley doesn’t have his top command, his stuff is not going to blow anyone away.. He’s adequate going thru a Line-UP once or maybe Twice, but that’s about it..(basically a 5, manybe a 6 inning Pitcher)
    He’s a junk ball Pitcher that relies on getting batters out on “Balls” if he doesn”t have command of his Slider, he’s in big-time trouble which you cansay the same thinkg about Kendrick too..

  8. 3.75 ERA would be top 25 in the NL. It would also more than likely get him a better than 8-10 record unless he gets poor run support.
    I would be thrilled if Worley had a 3.75 ERA.

    • I would be thrilled, if could actually pitch past the freaking 5th inning. He does NOT eat up enough innings, & got pulled way too any times in the 5th & 6th innings the past 2 seasons. But hopefully he can improve, because he’s a solid young pitcher.

  9. I know it upsets many of you when I am right, but I was probably the only person in the Country who called for the NAts to take 1st Place last year and I did so for 3 Reasons

    #1) Their young Talent reminds me a lot of the Phils from 2006-2007 with their nucleaus just reaching their primes (Morse, Ramos,Storen,Clippard,Strasburg,Harper, Desmond,Bonifaco,Lombardozzi) and then you have Veterans like Werth,LaRocher, Gio Gonzales,etc,etc)
    #2) Their Manager Davey Johnson is an excellent field and game manager (unlike Charlie Manuel)
    #3) The PHils are older and have dropped, there is no question about it.. look over the last 4 Seasons and the Phils haev dropped in almost every category whther it be batting average, HR’s, DOubles, RBI’s, etc,etc..and their Starters Doc,Lee are another year older on arms that have thrown a lot of innings and their Bullpen is a complete turnstile (besides Papelbon)

  10. Too many Phils Fans like Eagles Fans have little idea of what their Competitions is doing around their respective leagues which is part of the Over-Hypeing that Philly Fans buy into and help create.. Philly Fans are very passionate about their Teams no doubt, but are usually clueless about what their Competiion is doing in relation on how successful their Home Town Teams will really be and then panic and are pissed when their Teams fail to perform or succeed… No Surprise at Phils/Eagles Recent Fall the last couple of Seasons if Fans paid more attention to what other Teams are doing…

  11. hey numb nuts do you really think that us fans didnt see the nationals building? you think when they overpaid werth we didnt see it as a move for veteran presence on a young team?
    as for the eagles the minute they signed vick as a starter most fans felt we were doomed.you say so much bullshit on here and you ignore the times you are WRONG.

  12. Yes HAC,
    80% of Philly Fans have no idea what their Competition us up to..
    Part of it is that they are so passionate about their own home Team which is a good thing I suppose, and the other part of it is that they simply don’t care what goes around the rest of the MLB or NFL for they beleive their Home Team are legitimate Teams with a shot at the Championship regardless of what’s really going around the Leagues that their favorite teams play in..

  13. Fraud, your arrogance actually trumps your stupidity. To think that people on this web site don’t know or understand what our rivals are doing personnel wise shows your stupity and to proclaim that you do shows your arrogance.

  14. Then why did so many proclaimed “True Fans” of the Sport that you state are on here not realize the Phils Talent Level has slipped to merely average the last few Season while many teams in the NL have moved improvements..
    And why would so many of you tell me many times.. The Nationals ?? Are you kidding me, The Braves ??? they suck .. The Phils had the best Record in 2011 , which means absolutely shit in 2012…
    Why could you not see that coming then HAC and if you did, and still thought that the 2012 Phils Team was going to compete, than you are more foolish than I thought… Phils best 4-5 Payers are all past their primes and are not longer in the upper echelon of players in MLB.. Can you understand and accept this.. and I am not talking about the injuries, but look at Utley’s Numbers for example, they have been declining since 2008 ?? Howards #’s over the last 3-4 Seasons, Declining, Rollins had a decent bounce back seasin 2012, but overall is not what he was in the 2005-2008 era and why would anyone expect him to be at his stage of his career.. Doc Holliday has tossed tons of innnings over a great career. but he can last forever..
    WOrley,Stutes,Bastrao were all unknowns in 2011 and did well flying under the radar but were overused by Manager Manual in 2011 and were falme outs in 2012 now that Teams have books on their weaknesses… on and on and on I can go.. but too many Fightin’ Phils will say, they brought a Championship 4 years ago which gives them a Free-Pass for now..
    What a joke

  15. Dickwad, in your words the talent level slipped the last few years…that’s what you said idiot well 2011 was just a year ago and they won z102! That IS NOT AVERAGE. Even an arrogant idiot like you will admit there had to be talent to win 102!. They are a FA and a young guy stepping up from being in this thing. That isn’t blind loyalty that is the truth
    You proclaimed Rollins a bum yet he won a GG and hit over 20 HR. you are just full of crap.

  16. and Mr Ass-Wipe, the NL was very weak as a League in 2011 and especially the NL East where the Mets,Marlins and Nats all were struggling as well as Teams as the SF Giants (When Posey went down) and the Reds (Who underachiebed) and the CUbs,Astros and PAdres who all imploded and had poor Seasions.. Yada,yada,yada..
    Take a look at the 2008 Champ Team in beating the newbie TB Rays who came out of nowhere only to do little else since then.. 2008 Team would struggle to be the Top 5 Teams of MLB from the last couple of Seasons..

  17. Oh so they had no talent but the rest of the league had less so the phillies won 102. Wow you are dumb. The Nats were bad? Hmm I thought they were the up and comer in 2011. Hmmm and the giants were weakened by injury? Hmmm injuries happen, you may realize that our own team were devastated by injuries. Every year there are injuries, dont throw out one player injury to explain how they won a bunch of games… If you do you would also acknowledge that the Phil’s injuries helped out the Nats, braves, giants etc. you are nonsensical!

    • Hate to break the news to you again, HAC, but 102 wins means squat, when you get knocked out of the 1st round of the playoffs, with our SO-CALLED 4 ACES & the 3rd highest payroll in MLB! It’s just another useless stat, my brother! The end result, is all that matters! Also they are not just 1 FA & 1 young guy from stepping up, to being right back in anything! This team needs to be rebuilt. They are too old, in major decline, overpaid, & lacking talent everywhere (All 3 outfield positions, unless Ruf can prove he can play LF, 3B, BP) & our nucleus of Chooch, Rollins, Utley, Howard are another year older & huge question marks. Not to mention the HUGE ??? in the starting rotation. Other than Hamels, who in the starting rotation, can be counted on, close to 100%? Halladay is aging rapidly & coming off an undisclosed injury, in which he pitched like crap all year! Lee quite possibly, will be traded, from what I heard down at the Bank, from an insider! Worley is coming off of a mediocre season, in which he had a season ending injury, with bone chips in his arm! Kendrick had a good second half, but he has been very inconsistent his entire career! Cloyd is a junk baller, & although I like his make-up on the mound, he can’t be counted on, to consistently get out MLB hitters! The BP is a flat out mess, & has bigger ??? than the outfield! Come on dude, lay off of the LSD! You should be using the same logic, that you use with your Bird arguments! They are in the same exact position. Both need to be rebuilt. Both coaching staffs need to go. Both GM’s need to go. So stop being a hypocrite.

  18. E-Money – paulman never said a 3.75 ERA was not good generally speaking. He simply said that when the Phils are averaging 3 runs a game, then a 3.75 ERA isn’t going to be good enough because they won’t be able to match the opposition’s runs.

  19. No LSD since a Floyd concert in the 70′s. But we disagree and I will be on here next summer when only time will tell. I believe they have 1 more run, at the outside 2 more.

  20. As for the 102 Car I was counter pointing frauds comments that they had diminishing talent. you can’t win that many games with a bunch of nobodies.
    baseball and football are significantly different as for the over 30 arguement. a 34 year old ball player is still at the outer edge of his prime. a 32 year old football player can barely get out of bed in the morning.

  21. I stand by statement that the Phils are on the way down similar to the Eagles fall to mediocrity.. Too many teams in their Leagues have improved the last couple of seasons while both Philly Clubs has declined and that’s just the reality of the situation.. No problem in rooting for your home team and hoping for the best, but I tend to make a more realitstic assesement in stating their chances to be legitimate Playoff Teams and right now, neither Franchise is what I would consider “Legitimate Playoff Teams with a Chance for a Championship”..
    Happy All Soul’s Day..

    • I agree. Ryan Howard’s, Chase Utley’s, Roy Halliday’s Cliff Lee’s and Jimmy Rollen’s best years are behind them. Mayberry and Brown are average players at best. The bullpen stinks. They don’t have a 3rd baseman. The coaching is nothing special. I think they would need special years from a lot of their players to get back to the top of the National League. This could certainly happen, but I don’t see it.

  22. fraud they ane not the same– the phils locker room has character– eagles locker room is me first guys. guys that HAVE never won a thing– i bet namdi is 30 games under .500 for his career! if you don’t think that the phils are a contender in 2013 you are foolish. i’m not saying they will win it but they will contend.

  23. Phils will not make the Playoffs in 2013 as they are comprised right now
    lets see waht aquisitions they actually make before anyone can be difinitive
    But with 2 gapings holes in the OF, 3B and Bullpen Postions with lots of ???
    They are not contendors at this time.. This I am pretty sure about

  24. There is little to compare the eagles with the phils except neither makes playoffs this season, the franchises now are bipolar opposites, almost every player on phil is class, especially the core, eagles, don’t think so, the phils have a gm with some acumen, roseman know nothing about football or finance, phils have a baseball man as a mangager, talks straight with the fans, birds have”gotta do a better job”, enough said, phillies upper management is first class, beautiful park, Luriie is a carpet bagger who brought his wife to turn the eagles from kelly/hunter to those awful midnight green uniforms all for a buck, that’s the least offensive change to this franchise THAT HAS NEVER WON ANYTHING IN THE MODERN SUPERBOWL ERA, so just stop with these silly comparisons betwen the phillies and this trash eagles franchise

    • Jake they are not polar opposites. Both rosters are disappointing, overpaid, underachievers! Both GM’s are inept! Both Managers/ coaches suck at in game adjustments! Both ownership’s are blind loyal to a fault! The only difference, is that the Phillies at least gave us to WS wins! The Birds ain’t won $#!t, in most of our lifetimes, & I’m 43! So how are they polar opposites?

  25. Philly was on a roll with Competitive Teams in 3 of the 4 Major Sports over the last last 6-7 Years with the Phils,Eagles and Flyers all having success but now I expect a 3-4 Year down-period for the Eagles & Phils but still have some Post-season possibilites with the Flyboys leading the up and coming,improving 76ers Team
    This will be good for the City and many of it’s Fans who are younger and don’t recall the years of struggle and toil than many of us older fans had to endure with poorly run Franchises.. Every once in a while, it’s good for people and especially young fans to see Teams Struggle a bit so they can appreciate the good times when they roll around again.. Not everyone is like it is in “Madden ’13″ or X-Box and Coach AR has been with the Eagles so long that the next GM/HC will have to change about 1/2 this Roster to adjust or fit to their style of play which I hope is a downhill, tough, physical brand of fttball where many of these small but fast players have a place for..
    Long & Lean OL with quick feet means nothing for a running,smash mouth football philosophy.. and Small but Fast LB’s don’t cut in a downhill, attacking, run stopping, blitz after the QB style of Defense and making plays on the other end of the line of scrimmage.. Having 6 DE’s all under 6-2 and 265lbs doesn;t cut it either.. Get me a couple of 6-4 275-280lbs DE’s with long arms to block passing lanes and not these stumpy 6-1 or 6-2 players with short arms who can’t disengage from blocks very well and do not block passes or clog passing lanes like the taller DL do..

  26. when i said namdi was probably 10 games under .500 i had just done some of that LSD …. he is 54 games under! football is not a 1 man game by any stretch, just saying that there seems to be this collection of ‘one man shows’ that the birds got that just don’t mesh… babin 18.5 meaningless sacks, namdi was suppossed to neutralize one side of the field, D Jax was this deep threat and of course Vick.. to compare to the phils is another example of the frauds just throwing crap against the wall to see what sticks.

  27. I was probably the only one who did not like the Signing of CB Asmogoah for I though he lacked the toughness and speed to play in the tougher NFC East Division and to play.. I stated they should have gone out and went after a CArlos Rogers or even a Richard Marshall who has gone on and play very well for their repsectful Clubs..
    See, Joe Banner was already out of the picture (though he did not formery resign until post 2011 Season, so GM Roseman and COach AR want Ga ga ans signed has been players like Asmo, Ronnie Brown, Steve SMith, and Vince Young instead of focusing on LB, Safety, a big-bodied WR and OL Help and now fast fgorward to 2012 and here we are .. When you take the Draft Class of 2010 & 2011 and combine it with the FRee-Agency Moves and SIgnings of 2011, these 2 Years have set the Eagles Franchise back 5 Years and it’s mostly the doings of GM Roseman and Coach AR…

  28. Pman- you thought he was too expensive.

  29. “I stand by statement that the Phils are on the way down similar to the Eagles fall to mediocrity”.

    U said this before the year they won over 100 games. Stop.. please.. just stop.

    BTW… obama will not be pres…. this is a fact…. its going to happen…. either this election or next…. mark it down. 5 years from now…. this is fact!!

  30. Stevo leave the fraud alone, by his definition of diminishing, the nationals are on there way DOWN because they have 3 players of their starting 8 over 30! And they will be paying an aging werth like 17 million when he’s 39! He doesn’t understand the cost of doing business!

  31. Yes Stevo, Too expensive and that he was physical enough to play inthe rugged NFC East against he Physcial Recivers of Nicks,Bryant,Jennings,and other COntending Teams in the NFC Have..

    I’ve stated that Eagles Secondary biggest issue was a lack of Toughness from it;s CB and SAfeties since Dawk and Seldon Brown left 4 Seasons ago.. and since the Eagles already obtained the Fast but non-physical DRC For Kolb, and still had Assante Samuel, why add another puss,light-hitting CB who speed was suspect and whose physical play was just not there..

    Carlos Rosgers,Richmard Marshall are smash-mouth, in your face cover CB’s that will scratch,claw and bang a Reciver around while still knowing where the ball is.. Asmo is unable to look back at the ball and still keep the Receiver in his Sights, he can do one or the other, but not both which is required if you want to be considered and “elite” CB

    I said this 2 months ago, that I would take 15 Other CB’s in the NFL ove rAsmo and stand by it … You want the list …

  32. No…. you say a lot of things…. you have many lists…. none of them mean anything…. its bad enough its written down once… no need to put it down 2 times.

  33. “Somebody has to tell the tale, I guess it was Up to me..”..
    This Team has sucked and underperformed going on 4 Years now.. Why do so many of you continue to think they are “Talented” and one of the best Teams in the NFL.. Look at this Team, how dysfunctionable it is from Top to Bottom. It is what it is and to be honest, this is exactly how the Coach AR should end.. A complete Train Wreck..

  34. lol.. fraudman the Prophet.

    You said the phills wouldnt make the playoffs and they won over 100 games. Thats the story you told?

    Or that there was no way they would resign Djack? that story?

    For every time you get one right you get 7 wrong. yawn…

  35. stevo i guess you figured out fraud moves on when called out. he is the prototypical synonym for ‘kitty’

  36. The Phils have a ton of problems starting with what will they get from Doc? That is a huge if. Then defensively they are pretty shaky especially on the right side of the IF. They have no 3B except Frandsen who played well this year, but I don’t that he will repeat the same next year. Chooch was their major producer, but he will come back to Earth some next year. So where will they get production from? At this point, I think that counting on Howard to return to old form is something that I wouldn’t bet on. I would bet that he would be somewhere around 30-100/110, but also somewhere around .250. The bullpen before Papelbon is a mess unless you count on some young players performing well over a whole season. You need 2 OFs unless you are going to go with very limited players in Schierholtz and Mayberry or with Ruf. Personally, I think that Ruf should start in LF from day 1. I am worried that Charlie will platoon guys again, so no one gets comfortable at the plate or in the lineup. Personally, I think that Utley would be most effective batting 2nd going forward because of how he can get on base, but he will be cemented into the 3rd spot especially since they don’t have a better option which is sad.

    The FA class is crap. The Phils would have to overpay for Hamilton or Bourn which they shouldn’t do. If they sign Upton, then you will have another .250 hitter in your lineup. They could sing Youk, but he is not good defensively anymore and he probably would miss 50 games or so.

    So I say start cautiously rebuilding now and try to move Lee while you can to fill in some holes. They can always look at signing someone like Sean Marcum for a short term deal or Edwin Jackson long term if they move Lee. Let the kids play. Ruf and Brown in the OF and Cloyd in the rotation. They have have 2 pretty good catching prospects to move as well.

  37. 30 and 110? Hmmm ok
    As for a platoon it may be necessary. A combo of ruf and brown or Mayberry and brown could produce 35 and 100 you need two outfield positions to produce decent numbers .. Look at the combo of Burrell and werth, ibanez and werth.
    As for the .250 hitter I would agree they need a guy to hit .300

  38. Cigar, if healthy, you don’t think that Howard will hit 30 HRs or knock in 100-110?

    Last 2 injury free years:
    2010 = 31 HRs and 108
    2011 = 33 HRs and 116 RBI

    He only played 71 games last year and he had 14 HR and 56 RBI. Double that to get to just 142 games and it is 28 HR and 112 RBI.

    What am I missing? Do you think that he has regressed that much or that his injury will linger into next year? Or do you think that he will be more productive than that?

    And no more effin platoons. All they do for a young player is prevent them from developing into a full time player. How will Brown ever hit RH pitching if he never faces it? And how will Ruf hit RH pitching. If you want to go with journeyman vets, then platoon.

  39. Yes at least but you made it sound like it was terrible. I agree 45/150 may be gone but 35/110 or so will do. You misunderstood I expect full recovery and he is only 32!
    Brown may never hit LH pitching right now I don’t care they have a two year window in my book

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