• March 19, 2024

Chip Kelly’s Offensive System Produces High Turnover Rate

ChipKelly1Sam Bradford and the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense have produced a high rate of turnovers throughout the season.

After committing four more giveaways on Monday night against the Giants, the Eagles are currently second in the league with 14 turnovers, trailing only the Detroit Lions who have 18. The Birds are currently averaging more than two turnovers per game, and while much of the fault lies on the shoulders of the careless play of Bradford, when you look a little deeper at the situation, a case can be made that Chip Kelly’s offensive system is conducive to generating turnovers just as quickly as it generates yards and points.

In 2014, the Eagles led the league in turnovers with 36. Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez combined to produce 21 interceptions, and the Birds also lost 14 fumbles.

The Eagles only had 18 giveaways in 2013, however 14 of them came in the first eight weeks of the season (team was 3-5 in that stretch) before Nick Foles went on his magical 27-2 touchdown/interception ratio run in the second half of the season. Had Foles never taken over as the starting quarterback, the offense would have been on place for 28 turnovers that year as well.

With 14 turnovers already on the board for the 2015 season, the Eagles are on pace for more than 37 turnovers this year, which would exceed last year’s league-leading total.

Throughout Chip Kelly’s tenure in Philadelphia, the players have changed, but the system has stayed the same. And the system, for all of its high yardage and point totals, has also produced some very dark elements as well. The high number of turnovers are the most damning, but there other significant issues as well, such as the constant three-and-outs and the heavy workload it places on the team’s defense.

But the focus for today is the turnover problem.

Whether its been Michael Vick, Nick Foles, Mark Sanchez, or Sam Bradford, Kelly’s quarterbacks have turned the ball over frequently. Skill position players have been prone to fumbling. Jordan Matthews lost one on Monday, and DeMarco Murray could have easily lost another (and set the Giants up with a short field). Even a quality center like Jason Kelce has been guilty of a number of botched snaps over the last three years (including one on Monday) that have led to turnovers, or at the very least killed drives.

I think that the way this offense is designed, with such an emphasis placed on speed, tempo, and getting up to the line and snapping the ball as soon as possible, it makes the players running it more likely to make mistakes during a game.

The NFL is already an extremely intense, fast-paced level of play to begin with. And with the rate of speed that Kelly likes to run his offense at, his goal is to overwhelm opposing defenses by creating confusing and taking away their time to adjust. However, there I times where I believe the same problems that Kelly is trying to create for the defense actually come back to impact his offense.

Just like the defenders, the players on offense don’t have time to adjust or compose themselves after a play. They’ve got to worry about getting back to the line as soon as possible to run the next play. But with the rate of speed at which things are transpiring, there have been plenty of times in which not all of Kelly’s players are on the same page with each other. The quarterback may expect his receivers to go one way, while the wideouts believe a completely different thing is expected of them.

Case and point goes back to Monday’s game on one of Bradford’s interceptions. Bradford targeted Riley Cooper on a deep ball down the field, however there was some kind of miscommunication, as Cooper didn’t make a break downfield and the result was an easy interception for the Giants. Similar plays, mental mistakes, or lapses in judgement by the players have occurred throughout Kelly’s time with the Eagles.

The other example I’ll point to is Jason Kelce. Kelce snapped the ball too early again on Monday, firing the ball right by Bradford who was not expecting a snap at all. A similar thing occurred earlier this year in a loss to the Cowboys, and Kelce has had several plays similar in the previous two seasons. Again, when I think about the rate of speed that this offense runs at, and the priority that is placed on running as many plays as quickly as possible, the philosophy of speed could be working in Kelce’s head and contributing to making him a little trigger happy at times in order to get the next play going.

Kelly and the Eagles have talked for over a year now about cleaning up the turnovers, but we’ve seen no sign of the rate coming down. The Eagles have been able to get away with the giveaways in the last couple of weeks, but sooner or later the mistakes are going to come back and be the undoing of this team, just as they were a year ago.

Follow Denny Basens on Twitter, @DennyBasens

Denny Basens

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Canttakeitanymore
Canttakeitanymore
October 21, 2015 11:34 am

I see what you did there…leave out 2013 numbers because it doesn’t fit the narrative. Pretty standard in this media market.

Canttakeitanymore
Canttakeitanymore
October 21, 2015 11:35 am

*Discount 2013 numbers

Canttakeitanymore
Canttakeitanymore
October 21, 2015 2:29 pm
Reply to  Denny Basens

That is why I said “discount 2013”.

Same way people like to make excuses for wins. Could it be that he actually had a QB executing his offense and making good decisions which is why turnovers are down and not that this offense is doomed to only produce turnover machines?

vinnietheevictor
vinnietheevictor
October 21, 2015 12:34 pm

Interception percentages for Kelly QBs (the lower the better of course)

Foles 1.9% (12 ints in 628 atts)
If we discount his “magical” year (silly, but I will do it for fun), he was at 3.2% in his “lead the league in turnovers” year.
Foles 1.9% int percentage with Kelly was LOWER than his career average.

Vick 2.1% (3 ints in 141 atts)
Vick’s 2.1% int percentage with Kelly was LOWER than his career average (though admittedly a small sample)

Sanchez 3.6% (11ints in 309 atts)
Sanchez’s 3.6 int percentage was EVEN with his career average

Bradford 3.9% (9ints in 228 atts)
Bradford’s 3.9% int percentage is WORSE than his career average.

I dunno….2 of the QBs did significantly better under this system, one was the same, one was worse.

Discountin the “magical” 2013 the numbers look like

Foles 3.2
Sanchez 3.6
Bradford 3.9

(Again, I think its silly to discount 2013 as it did happen…but whatever)

Are the percentages rising because teams are figuring out the system? Or because the players stink?

All I know is 3 of the players did better under Kelly and one has done worse.

paulman
paulman
October 21, 2015 12:59 pm

One thing to take account in Kelly’s “Horizontal Approach” to his Offense is that it exposes the QB’s & Receivers to a lot more Hits and Contact then the normal Vertical Attack where’s it’s more 1 on 1 for the Receivers..
All these 3-4-5 Yard Slants, Wide-Out Screens mean that the Receivers are now being hit by multiple Defenders running to the ball after htey make their Catches..
Also, all these Formations with empty back sets means that Defense’s know its a pass coming which allows for more of a Pass-Rush which results in greater chances for Hits, Sacks, Fumbles by the QB’s ..

Look at all these Fumbles the last few Seasons and its the QB’s and WR’s who have had the greatest increase in Fumbles than the RB’s who are more used to contact and on how to protect the Ball..

vinnietheevictor
vinnietheevictor
October 21, 2015 1:50 pm
Reply to  paulman

I’ve said this since week 1. I am tired of watching spindly Matthews, or tiny Huff, or Sproles get buried by 2 250lb LBs after every catch.

No kidding they’ve got the dropsies right now. They aren’t being tackled by CBs, they’re getting driven to the turn over and over by LBs.

Now….whether this is all by design, or that Sam I am keeps popping those 4 yrd hooks ’cause that’s what he likes, these guys are getting pulverized every second pass play….add in a couple Kelly standard WR screens, and its more punishment.

I’d like it if that stat were kept….Number of times WRs buried by LBs. I am sure the Eagles would lead the league.

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 21, 2015 1:01 pm

Not too mention Sam threw in domes 9 out of 16 games every year Rams and Phoenix.

paulman
paulman
October 21, 2015 1:23 pm
Reply to  deserteagle

DE, When did Sam Bradford play complete Seasons in the NFL?

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 21, 2015 1:03 pm

It’s obvious were trying to recreate this Frankenstein monster with bad wheels ,he’s not been able to somehow “get on the same page” with his receivers ? I thoughts am I am had a higher IQ ? This guys been manufactured to be something he isn’t ..case closed

zilents44
zilents44
October 21, 2015 1:11 pm

Chip is getting better with play calling, if we can limit bradfords ints to one a game ill be happy….lol

mhenski
mhenski
October 21, 2015 2:37 pm

man the kid koolbreeze be locked up in that doomsday vault or sumpin

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 21, 2015 2:59 pm
Reply to  mhenski

Kool is deluged by falling Vick and Sam I am disease…get better soon..miss your Kool breeze here in the tepid dedert

haveacigar
haveacigar
October 21, 2015 3:21 pm
Reply to  deserteagle

as we have said before If we want any kind of a chance this season he better ultimately be correct about bradford. Right now bradford couldn’t lead us to the toilet bowl let alone the super bowl.

mhenski
mhenski
October 21, 2015 4:33 pm
Reply to  haveacigar

super bowl? lmfao. that D and Run game better step up even more and chip should start treating this unathletic googly eyed loooosah like trent dilfer

Eaglehaslanded
Eaglehaslanded
October 21, 2015 4:03 pm
Reply to  deserteagle

Naw Kool has ducked himself into the witness protection program. I thought I saw him on the side of a milk carton.

IrishEagle
IrishEagle
October 21, 2015 6:51 pm
Reply to  Eaglehaslanded

Koolbreeze is still on here – just look for the guy who is pounding the drum trying to convince us that the Eagles are improving and that the fans should shut up and be happy… That will be koolbreeze in his new persona…

zilents44
zilents44
October 21, 2015 4:31 pm

Hes plotting his revenge as soon as sam has a good game…lol

haveacigar
haveacigar
October 21, 2015 5:28 pm

What’s wrong with the defense? They are pretty damn good, they had a hiccup the game they were on the field for 46 minutes….ok but overall they are good. Running game will be fine particularly if our QB can learn to throw it to the guys in the same color jerseys as his…

mhenski
mhenski
October 21, 2015 7:34 pm
Reply to  haveacigar

Like I said they’ll need to step up EVEN MORE.

Speaking of that d man Bennie Logan bull balling too

eagles0superbowls
eagles0superbowls
October 21, 2015 7:17 pm

hopefully these NYG interceptions are just an unfortunate hiccup. I want to see these long distance TD passes to Cooper and long distance passes to Ertz, Austin, Agholor, & Matthews. I’m back on the Sam Bradford band wagon this week – keep launching.

vinnietheevictor
vinnietheevictor
October 22, 2015 12:29 am

One of the things that might give a little pause is the Ds reliance on turnovers.

They are second overall, with 16 turnovers acquired. 8 ints and 8 fumble recoveries. This is twice league average (8.7), so some regressing to the mean should be expected, especially with fumble recoveries, which for the most part are pure luck.

Eagles have forced 11 fumbles (good) and recovered 8 of them (luck). Recovering that percentage of fumbles is probably unsustainable, as in the end, teams usually recover 50% of the fumbles that happen.

As for interceptions….can’t see why they won;t continue at this pace….Eagles only have to play one good QB for the remainder of the year.

vinnietheevictor
vinnietheevictor
October 22, 2015 1:57 pm

Throw out some odds:

What do you think are the chance that this is Bradford’s last starting game?

I’m going with 30/70. (30% its his last, 70% chance he’ll get another)

My original leaning was to 50/50….but then I took into account Kelly has a lot invested and it will be hard for him to pull Bradford out, even if he stinks…so I dropped that to 40/60

But then I thought about how if Bradford is pulled it would be for Sanchez. And even despite giving Sanchezx that stupid contract in the offseason, even Kelly has to know there’s no chance to win with him at QB, so that dropped it to my final 30/70.

The 70% represents that Kelly really has no other option, the 30 recognizes that bradford has been putrid and Kelly, despite not wanting to, may be forced into a change…..

Oh wait…injury history…better factor that in….

35/65…final!

What do you guys have?

IrishEagle
IrishEagle
October 22, 2015 2:20 pm

The only way Bradford is pulled is injury, is what I think. The odds are 20% that he is pulled.

I think Pat Shurmur has lost a lot of credibility with Kelly, and it could cost him his job if Bradford doesn’t come around. The trade was more Shurmur’s idea than Kelly’s.

I don’t think Kelly sees Sanchez as an option. The franchise has too much riding on Sam – he’ll stay with him until the fat lady sings…. In the off season look for a new QB in the first round…. and a new offensive coordinator.

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 22, 2015 2:28 pm
Reply to  IrishEagle

Adding into the matrix a surprising defensive side of the ball..i don’t see why chip wouldn’t stay the course; and not upset there dominant stature..the leadership has had a seismic shift on this squad..imo..

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 22, 2015 2:22 pm

I really think until an injury occurs; that sam I am; will be the man.agreeably pulling him is tantamount to admission by the GM.as a mistake. .When considering that they now control there own destiny , sitting atop the East, chip would be foolish to pull the plug voluntarily..I’m of the belief he alters his expectations first and makes sam a quick who simply manages the games..

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 22, 2015 2:24 pm
Reply to  deserteagle

Q.b.not quick…who invented spellcheck..

paulman
paulman
October 22, 2015 2:38 pm
Reply to  deserteagle

No Change at QB unless there is an Injury to Bradford,
Now if Eagles lose 2-3 Games in a Row with Bradford playing Poorly, then
maybe a change, to salvage a Playoff Run… But I don’t see that happening with all these mediocre,banged up Teams all bunched up 1-2 apart from the Top to the Bottom…
On Pat Shurmur, don’t be surprised to hear his name for the USC Job
and possibly the Detroit Lions HC Job as they have to find a compatible Coach for QB Stafford who has regressed under Jim Caldwell

RealTalk777
RealTalk777
October 22, 2015 4:10 pm
Reply to  paulman

No QB change happens, unless injury…Chip will stay with Bradford…and honestly he doesn’t have a choice…he’ll stay with him or he will get criticized to no end…

Xevious
Xevious
October 22, 2015 3:47 pm

Nah man he is gonna have a stud game, toss 4 tds and no INT’s the birds will win by 40 points. Then the next game in the first half he will toss 3 TDs and then get hit first play of the 2nd half and be out for the year. It’s how shit goes down in philly. Then after than game and a half Kelly will sign him for 5 years 120 million and we are fucked.

paulman
paulman
October 22, 2015 2:57 pm

For Whatever it’s Worth Dept — List of Paulman’s Eagle Awards after 6 Games

Offense
Best OL — LG Alan Barbree has been the most Consistent Player so far
TE – What’s happened to Brett Celek and Trey Burton? – No Awards
WR – Riley Cooper has been the Best WR so far which is a Shock – (No Awards for any WR)
RB – Ryan Matthews has been the Best RB by far and a natural fit for Kelly’s Offense where Murray just looks like a fish out of water
What’s happened to Darren Sproles Touches the last few Games ?? (The Same thing happened last year where Kelly forgot about him…)

Defense
DL Bennie Logan is playing at a Pro-Bowl Level all Season Long
LB Jordan Hicks has come in like gangbusters and making Plays in both the Run Game and in the Passing Game.. Is he another Joe Mays/Jamar Cheney who both started hot and fizzled out quickly or is he the real deal.. He sure looks like a Natural to me and always around the Ball and much better against the Run than Kendricks and Alonso in my Opinion

CB Nolan Carroll has been the Eagles Best Cover CB by far

Safety Malcolm Jenkins is Playing at a Pro-Bowl Level , If he could learn how to catch the Ball he would get 6-8 Int’s a Season…

Kicker Caleb Sturgis had a nice game last week and needs to keep it going.. I am concerned about his accuracy and especially as the weather turns as he’s a Florida boy born and raised, kicked for the Florida Gators and for the Miami Dolphins and has not had much success in Cold Weather..

Punter Donnie Jones and Long-Snapper Jon Donebros are very reliable, consistent Players ..

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 22, 2015 3:00 pm
Reply to  paulman

I’d also throw a bouquet to demo Ryans who apparently wrestling that ball away..saved our season

deserteagle
deserteagle
October 22, 2015 3:03 pm
Reply to  paulman

$$$ for $$$ G.M.monies mis-spent..top of the heap..sits the injun chief..Sam I aint..with his roommate ..together they pulled quite a heist..

paulman
paulman
October 22, 2015 3:14 pm

More Paulman Rumor’s after the Season is Over..

QB Sam Bradford signs a Free-Agent Deal with Houston Texans as HC Bill O’Brien tries to save his Job.. Good Luck…

Eagles Trade RB D Murray to the Titans for QB Zack Mettenberger

Cedric Thornton Signs Big Free-Agent Deal with the Dallas Cowboys
Fletcher Cox Retires to take care of his Ill Mother
Kiko Alonso goes Missing on Zen Philosophy Worshiping Trip to Australia, and is never heard from again..
Nolan Carroll signs a Big Free-Agent Deal with Baltimore Ravens

DE Jason Babin Calls Chip Kelly to see if he can Return to the Eagles
Chip says, sure, Why not..

zilents44
zilents44
October 22, 2015 9:32 pm

Wilson is pretty good i dont know u think he sucks henski

zilents44
zilents44
October 22, 2015 10:57 pm

Man wilson takes too many sacks

mhenski
mhenski
October 22, 2015 11:07 pm
Reply to  zilents44

Many of the Same reasons I thought Vick sucked

Too many sacks

Can’t throw guys open

Can’t make simple plays – notice how jimmy Graham is invisible every week now?

Locks on to 1 receiver

When first read isn’t there he runs

Half or more of his plays are schoolyard improvised plays

I see wr running open and he just won’t throw any timing routes

Plus he just a weirdo. You lose a lot of points if you ain’t laying pipe by choice. Lose even more points if that 10 Ciara ur girl who gotten plowed by so many and you refuse to hit it, wtf???? You pulling 15-20 mill and not laying pipe in prime top shelf ??? Youre a nutcase wtf or Mike SAMs boy

mhenski
mhenski
October 22, 2015 11:11 pm

Kolin krappernick may be the worst starting qb in the NFL. Actually nah he for sure is. They need to bench that dude he can’t play the game

zilents44
zilents44
October 22, 2015 11:26 pm

Yea kapernick just doesnt get it, but I see what u mean with wilson schoolyard plays, i think hes on pace to get sacked 70 times almost, thats scary

zilents44
zilents44
October 22, 2015 11:28 pm

Yo ehl goff is getting abused by ucla, he has major talent but scares me with his constant over throwing wrs

paulman
paulman
October 22, 2015 11:39 pm

Just got back home from watching my Appalachian State University kick some Georgia Southern Butt 31-13 in front of a raucous sell-out crowd at Kidd Brewer rStadium in Boone,NC.. The Game was Televised Nationally on ESPNU Channel in a battle for 1st Place in the Sunbelt Conference
App State has a true Sophomore QB named Tyler Lamb.. A 6-3′ 220lb Athletic QB who is smart, tough and very careful with the ball and was very impressed with how he ran the offense and managed the game.. He was Freshman of the a Year in the Sunbelt Conference last year and is having a very nice Sophomore Season… Keep this kids name handy Two Years from now as he could turn out like another Joe Flacco type, though he is much more mobile

zilents44
zilents44
October 22, 2015 11:44 pm

Nice revenge game for app state after georgia southern won last year I believe

paulman
paulman
October 23, 2015 12:23 am
Reply to  zilents44

Ga Southern whooped up on App State last Year…
Both Schools moved up from the FBS “Southern Conference” to the BSC “Sun-Belt Conference” 2 Years ago and are now full fledged members and eligible for Bowl Games
The Sun-Belt Conference Champ gets the R&L Bowl Game in New Orleans usually around New Years Eve which is a greatt Town to Visit for a Bowl Game…
App State Won 3 FBS Division (Old Division II) NCAA Football Championships from 2005 thru 2007 with some Great Teams and have a nice tradition of good Football.. The Stadium in Boone holds about 25,000-28,000 Fans and get great crowds which is a lot for Boone only has about 25,000 People to begin with.. Alumni come up from Charloote, Winston Salem, Greensboro & Raleigh.. Especially inthe Fall when the leaves are changing for its a beautiful region to visit during the Fall Season..

zilents44
zilents44
October 23, 2015 3:46 am

Thanks boone enthusiast

eagles0superbowls
eagles0superbowls
October 23, 2015 10:40 am

watched Temple last night beat East Carolina – Philadelphia Inquirer has an article where Temple wants the tax payers to build them a 35,000 seat $100 million dollar stadium now.

eagles0superbowls
eagles0superbowls
October 23, 2015 10:48 am

Bradford / Manning took a beating from the media for Monday night’s game. Not seeing the same venom from the National Media about the stinker Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick Put on last night .

paulman
paulman
October 23, 2015 11:39 am

**NFL NEWS***
Bears Release DT Jay Ratliff Wed afternoon in what they Termed as a Move that’s best for both Parties… Ratliff was suspended the first 3 Games for Personal Misconduct after Pleading Guilty to a DWI Charge back in 2013
He’s also had some Foot/Ankle Injuries of late as he’s never been the same player that led him to 4 Pro-Bowls from 2008-2011 as a member of the Cowboys.. Some Team may take a chance on him..