From Jeff S,
As a long-time Eagles fan (since the days when Bill Bergey was the defense and Harold Carmichael was the offense), I’ve seen many a dark day, yet have remained pretty optimistic over the years (often too optimistic) and I was optimistic this year – until now, that is.
If – as NBC reported on Sunday – the Westbrook injury is more serious than reported (being a rib cage tear rather than an “abdominal strain”) and he misses extensive time, or is significantly less than 100%, I think that, despite the return of the defense to form (and kudos to Jim Johnson and Bunkley/Patterson in particular for turning it around), this year has the smell of a 6-10 disaster.
Why? For five basic reasons centered on the offense and – more ominously – Andy Reid:
1) Westbrook’s Injury: You need playmakers – plural – to make things happen. With Donovan’s injury eliminating his running ability thus far – along with the loss of LJ Smith and no clear #1 receiver (Curtis’ one-game wonder not withstanding) – Westbrook has become the single playmaker on offense. Thus, no Westbrook – or Westbrook at significantly less than 100% – no playmakers and therefore, little offense. And oh by the way, the Detroit victory – yes, Curtis accounted for 221 yards, but guess what -Westbrook accounted for 221 as well (110 ground; 111 air).
2) McNabb’s Injury: When it occurred, I looked at it and figured Feeley would be the starting QB in Sept, with DM taking over in October – and that should have been the plan IMO. However, I think the drafting of Kolb really got into McNabb’s head and he felt he HAD to get out on the field to start the season – so he went crazy on the rehab to make sure that happened. However, he clearly isn’t the same Donovan in terms of escapeability and that has had a major impact on him – he can’t buy that extra time he so often uses to find the open receiver/make the big throw, while the D knows that he cannot hurt them running, so there’s no spy devoted to him – that guy’s now back in coverage – or rushing straight at him.
3) LJ Smith’s Injury: While LJ isn’t a Pro Bowl caliber TE, he’s a pretty darn good one when healthy – certainly heads and shoulders above Schobel and (at least at this point) Celek. So that’s one powerful weapon gone from the arsenal.
4) Reggie Brown: IMO, Reggie Brown IS a #1 receiver, but he has a fundamental problem – he can’t handle Donovan’s throws which, as we all know, can often be short on touch and/or accuracy. As a result, Donovan has no confidence in the kid and is reluctant to throw to him – ending up in a vicious cycle. But with another QB (like Garcia last year), he’s able to produce.
5) Andy Reid – Passoholic: If you didn’t read Phil Sheridan’s column on this the other day, you should. What really hit me was this passage:
“The serious passaholic is always making excuses. There was something on film he thought he could exploit. The run game wasn't quite working. The other team had the lead, so he had no choice but to throw. The dog ate the running plays.”
After last year with Garcia, I thought that – eureka – they had FINALLY seen the light with a balanced attack, but it turns out to have been just a mirage. “Stubborn Andy” has taken over for Marty on calling the plays – there’s just no doubt about that. The Giants game was the ultimate proof: a totally ineffective passing game, coupled with all the sacks, while Buckhalter was on his way to a 100+ yard game, they were still only down 7-0 through almost 3 full quarters – yet you end up calling for a pass on 47 of the 66 plays you run (a whopping 71% of the time) – that’s ten times worse than leaving Justice exposed the whole game IMO.
And to me, that’s where the real problem lies: “Stubborn Andy.” Its like he has all those strategies, game plans and notes from his Green Bay days and he’s sticking with them, come hell or high water – including injuries and lack of playmaking talent. And that’s worked fine in the past with a Pro-Bowl McNabb joined by a should-be-Pro Bowl Westbrook – and, barring the injury to T.O. – it should have gotten us the SB victory in 2005.
However, we don’t have “Pro-Bowl McNabb” – at least not this year, coming off the ACL and maybe never again – and who knows what we’ll have in Westbrook the rest of the way out.
What SHOULD be done?:
In short, adopt the “Garcia model” from last year:
1) Run the ball – a 50%-50% split for at least the first half of each game should be the aim. That’ll take the pressure off McNabb, the receivers and the defense, along with opening up things when they DO go ahead and throw. Look at the Oakland Raiders: An absolute train wreck on offense last year, they are averaging a healthy 25 points a game this year BY RUNNING THE BALL – nearly 200 yards per game (tops in the NFL) – using 2 backs (LaMont Jordan and Justin Fargas) that hardly qualify as superstars and an o-line that was an absolute joke last year.
2) Tell McNabb he needs to be Garcia (and run “Garcia plays”: quick dink-and-dunks): No more 5-7 step drops, then scanning the field seemingly forever for the deep threat or the perfect opportunity – instead, short drops (or use shotgun), read/react quickly (look at options A and B, not options A through F) and THROW THE BALL, even if it means throwing it away. Donovan doesn’t have to run like Garcia would (and he shouldn’t, coming off the injury), but he’s gotta get rid of the ball quickly or else it’s just a matter of time before he’s knocked out for the year. Dink-and-dunk focusing on Celek and Avant (maybe Baskett too) – along with screens and dump-offs to whoever is there – whether it be Westbrook if healthy or Buckhalter, Hunt, Taphe (or even Mahe) if not. Then, every so often, try a deep route to Brown or Curtis to keep everyone honest. Now this will be a hard sell to McNabb, but hey, even Farve bought into the new McCarthy plan in GB that reined him in, but is getting him the W’s in the standings.
What WILL be done?:
Despite the logic of the above, I fear “Stubborn Andy” will prevail. I think his comment about McNabb/the offense after the Redskins debacle is telling: “We’ll make it work.” To me, that sounds like he’s going to put the blinders on and try to ride McNabb once again (“Why can’t every week be like Detroit?” he’ll say to himself) – and I just don’t see that working this year, not with the ACL and especially not if Westbrook can’t go.
And if McNabb goes down in the process and Feeley comes in and does anything at all, McNabb is done in Philly (and if Reid actually plays Kolb, McNabb is definitely done, no matter what Kolb actually does IMO).
Wish I could be more optimistic, but I have a real bad feeling right now, fueled by a huge loss in confidence in AR that has been building in my mind for awhile and erupted after watching the Giants debacle. (And I didn’t even touch on the continuing problem with penalties, particularly stupid personal foul penalties that reflect a fundamental lack of discipline that AR has seemingly failed to instill in his teams.)
From Frank,
G
Great article on Reid. He needs to get the blame and has to be held accountable. I am starting to hear these jokers on WIP making excuses for Reid and blaming Justice and the backs ..blah blah blah. We need in Philly to stop making excuses for this coach because we will NEVER win the SB with him. Ownership blindly is loyal to this guy and that is not a good thing. They need to do whats best to give this CITY and us FANS our Championship we deserve. Stop being loyal to themselves and their egos and be loyal to US!
From Ash,
G,
I am the biggest DMacc fan in the world and I think you just gave the best assessment of him I have seen this year. It is on the money. He needs to play better and so to the WR's and O-line.
I am interested to see what grade you will the coaches so far this year as they have to aleast be around a D if you gave McNabb as C. They have cost us a chance of winning two games and in the other loss they made their injuried QB throw the ball 40 plus times….crazy!
I have been to both road games this year and in both case I though the Eagles had hurt the other team on the ground so what to the eagles do. They go to shot gun for most of the second half in Green Bay and go with 3 plus WR sets vs Gaints when you QB has almost zero time to get rid of the ball and is getting hit on alomst every sinlge pass play called. I have been very upset with the way Reid and Marty have done things this year – they are just not putting guys in the position to made things happen and Donovan is just not healthy enough that he can bail Andy out with crazy escape plays.
From Charles,
G, I've heard you mention several times now about the problem between McNabb and Brown. As a fan and watching on TV we don't get to see the whole field. Is Reggie showing his emotions on the field? Remember the routes that T.O. used to run, crossing routes and moving him around the formation, why don't the Eagles try that with Brown or another receiver? Here's my theory on why they don't draft receivers high. They don't want to have to pay them after the 4 or 5 year contract is up. Where are all of those routes that Chad Lewis used to run? Too many questions. I guarantee you that the Eagles play well against the Jets, the Bears game is the one that will decide the season.
From Tom H,
Hey G,
Great site and information for us die hard Eagle fan.
I was wondering if you have heard (through your contacts) any truth to the rumors circulating that this is Reids last year or that he will be stepping aside even earlier.
Mark Altschuler <mka@pensionanalysis.com>
Gary, great article about D being wasted. So much better than last year. In early years, even without running game and bad wideouts, D would keep it close and Mcnabb would win it. He can't now.
What I can't understand is how well Brown did last year, if he can't handle press coverage. Also, Curtis did well with Rams as a No. 2 in 2005, when Bruce was hurt. Again, how did he do it, if not able to handle press coverage.
Good point about Curtis being small and Brown being slow. But they did well in the past.
From Joel,
G-Cobb, Chris Chambers is wallowing on a very bad Miami team. The Eagles need a receiver. He has nice size (5-11, 210) and good speed. His physical enough to get open on the jam and be a number one receiver. Do you think Miami would take a second or third pick for him? Better yet, do you think the Eagles would go for it. Chris is a guy who would put up excellent numbers here.
