I don’t want to brag, but I picked every game correctly last week. Not that I considered the spread or anything. Ok, so it wasn’t that impressive and I pretty much picked all the favorites.
These games are much tougher to pick, but I’ll do my best and hope I get lucky. Let’s look at this weekend’s matchups:
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots
The Jaguars have their work cut out for them, I think that’s safe to say. It looks like the weather should be ok up in Foxborough, but that’s actually a bad thing for Jacksonville. The Patriots are the team whose air-based attack would suffer should it rain or snow. The Jags are actually built to beat the Pats. Their run-first offense has the ability to chew up clock and stop Tom Brady by keeping him on the bench. He can’t hurt anyone there. The big problem, as I see it, for the team from Florida will be their health at defensive tackle. One of the reasons I loved the Jaguars at the beginning of the year was that nasty tandem of John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Well, no Stroud and Henderson has a bum hammy. Not good.
And on the other side…
I think the defensive tackle situation in Jacksonville tells me that the Patriots can run the ball should they choose to do so. Heck, they can do whatever they want anyway. Maybe Stephen Gostkowski will get a couple of carries. Why not? We all know the deal with the Patriots. They can and will steamroll you in a variety of fashions.
My pick: The Patriots may lose this year, but not Saturday night: Jags 23, Pats 35
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers
I said last week that I don’t love the Seattle Seahawks. I still don’t, although I admit that their linebackers can be murder. I wonder if Andy Reid watched the game last week and saw what play-making linebackers look like. But, they won’t be enough. I don’t think much of cornerback Kelly Jennings, so he better hope his brother Greg is really slowed by that groin injury (I actually have no knowledge of whether they are related. I made that up.) In other news, Shaun Alexander stinks. He looks like he is running on the beach. He turns his back on the hole, what a disgrace. Just give it to Maurice Morris and save yourself the headache.
And on the other side…
The Packers are running the ball too well right now and that makes Favre’s arm that much more of a problem for Seattle. The Packers have a deep defensive line, so they’ll be fresh for whatever running back the Seahawks throw at them. Defensive ends Cullen Jenkins and Aaron Kampman are excellent and will make Hasselbeck get rid of the ball in a timely fashion. Keep an eye on second-round draft pick Brandon Jackson to see some more time at running back behind Ryan Grant. Grant has been nasty this year and fresh legs will only help.
My pick: The Seahawks are a paper tiger: Seahawks 13, Packers 28
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
I know the Chargers have already beaten the Colts this year, but it took a horrific game from Peyton Manning and they still almost blew it. That game was in San Diego too, don’t forget. Now, they will face an Indy team that has Marvin Harrison back and the home field advantage. Tight end Antonio Gates is questionable with a bad toe and that could be the difference…..between getting blown out and keeping it respectable. The Chargers have some players, but something about them as a team isn’t getting it done for me. Maybe it’s Philip Rivers.
And on the other side…
Don’t sleep on the Colts. This team has been devastating all year, but no one knows it because of the Tom Brady Show up in New England. They are running the ball as well as ever with Joseph Addai, and the overall attack is more balanced. Still, they will welcome Harrison back with open arms. As good as the Colts are, I was shocked at their alarming lack of depth at WR this season. I guess that’s what happens when you devote your whole salary cap to four players. The Colts can be beaten, but not this weekend and not by the Chargers.
My pick: Rivers gets exposed…again: Chargers 10, Colts 31
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
Oh where to start? Dallas is the better team this year. They’ve beaten the Giants twice, They’ll have T.O. back. No brainer, right? Not so fast. The Giants can win this game. I don’t know that they will, but it’s possible. It’s very, very tough to beat a team three times in one season. The Cowboys haven’t seen rookie running back Ahmad Bradshaw yet. Rookie tight end Kevin Boss has filled in nicely for over-rated Jeremy Shockey. Eli Manning has a bit of confidence, although he still sports that stupid look on his face. If they can get some production out of Sinorice Moss and Steve Smith at wideout, they could cause some problems for a Cowboys secondary that can’t cover.
And on the other side…
I worry about the Cowboys. I don’t know that I make too much out of the Romo/Simpson stuff. He could be distracted, but I don’t know that to be the case. I would be far more worried with the fact that he’s generally stunk up the joint as of late. Lito Sheppard got way too much credit for shutting down T.O. in their December matchup. Romo couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn. The concern is heightened when you compare this with his body of work from last year. Same Bat time, same Bat meltdown. I don’t know how badly his thumb is hurt, but that’s a problem because he has wittle hands anyway and struggles to grip the ball. Also, T.O. hasn’t practiced this week and that ankle is an issue. Will he be out there? Bank on it. I just don’t know how effective he’ll be. This is a big deal, because then Jason Whitten isn’t as open in the middle of the field and Patrick Crayton and Terry Glenn won’t be worth much. And then, well, here come those Giants’ defensive ends that Winston Justice has heard so darn much about. Oh, and what’s the over/under on whether or not Roy Williams will take a horse-collar penalty?
My pick: I can’t do it! I hyped the Giants and downplayed the Cowboys. But I got to the dance and chickened out: Giants 21, Cowboys 27
micahw@feverpitchmedia.com
