Death Of RB Draft Strategy?

By Scott Pashley  Since the inception of fantasy football, owners have counted on taking two running backs with their first two picks and riding dual studs to victory.

You could count on this winning strategy just as surely as you can count on Tony Romo choking in December. 

However, this once surefire strategy is starting to become a relic of the past.  Several trends are conspiring to knock the RB/RB strategy from its perch atop the hierarchy of fantasy football strategy.  Teams are relying on thunder and lightning style backfields and RBBC, and some teams have decided to rely heavily on the passing game (Arizona nearly rode this strategy to a super bowl). 

Only the Jacksonville Jaguars have run more than they have passed in each of the past four years.  From a fantasy perspective PPR (point-per-reception) is becoming more prevalent which places greater value on selecting elite receivers in the league.

This article focuses on a change in strategy to an anti-RB/RB draft which we feel could be the wave of the future.  Using current ADP (average draft position) we are putting our theory that 2009 may be the perfect year for the anti-RB/RB draft to the test. 

We will show you the results and you can be the judge.  This season may be the perfect year to wait until RD 3 to take your first RB.  I know, I know, blasphemy.  But, hear us out.  Besides the aforementioned reasons to try the anti-RB/RB draft, there are some unique situations looming as we enter this year’s draft.  Consider the fact that Marshawn Lynch may be had in the 4^th or even 5^th Rd because of his three game suspension for general stupidity (his latest run-in with the law was a misdemeanor gun charge in Los Angeles which followed last year’s hit-and-run charges).  

Consider also the number of aging backs who may be due for a comeback or may have one good season left in them, i.e. Larry Johnson (29 years old), Ronnie Brown (27), Jamal Lewis (29), Fred Taylor (33), and Thomas Jones (30).  Less unique, but still relevant, are the rookies who appear to be set up for big seasons, including Knowshon Moreno (Denver) and Beanie Wells (Arizona). 

To play out the anti-RB/RB draft scenario, let’s say that we have the 10^th pick in a 12 team league with the old faithful serpentine draft format.   As a caveat, there are limitations to this theory.  For instance, you cannot pass up a RB if you are drafting in the top 5 of your draft.  Therefore, we will show you the results of a draft picking at #3 overall and taking a RB with the first pick but waiting until Rd 4 for RB2. As a control, we will use the same ADP data to perform a classic RB/RB draft at the number 10 slot.

Let’s get started.  At number 10, we are positioned to possibly acquire the number 1 or 2 overall WR.  Larry Fitzgerald is a no-brainer at 1.10 and, with the return of Tom Brady, we are high enough on Randy Moss to invest in him at 2.03.  Now, we’re set at WR, we still need another since we are playing in a league that starts three WRs, but as long as we are sober a little later in the draft rounding out the best WR crew in the league is a snap, right? 

Now it’s time to stockpile RBs with our next two picks and three out of our next four selections.  Lucky for us Marshawn Lynch’s gangsta exploits mean he will be available when we pick at 3.10.   We will have to cover for the lack of our stud RB since Lynch will be suspended for the first three weeks. 

Fortunately, we can address this problem by grabbing Lynch’s more-than-capable-backup Fred Jackson somewhere between Rd 8-10.  When pick 4.03 arrives there will be several possible steals on the board in a few different flavors; the back coming off of an injury plagued season, the aging runner that may or may not broken down,  and the back that may be devalued because his planned successor is on the roster. 

Ryan Grant, Larry Johnson, and Thomas Jones fit the bills respectively.  There will likely be high upside rookies like Moreno and Wells on the board and runners with possible RBBC implications, like Joseph Addai and Pierre Thomas waiting for a home.

Lynch is a great value pick at 3.10, so pencil him in.  The pick at 4.03 is trickier. This pick has a lot riding on it and could make or break our draft.  After much hand wringing we settle on Ryan Grant.   Here is what our team nucleus would look like;

1.10 Larry Fitzgerald

2.03 Randy Moss

3.10 Marshawn Lynch

4.03 Ryan Grant

Clearly, what we have done is sacrifice some security at the RB position to be stacked at WR.  Look at the backfield though, I certainly would not call our starting backs stiffs.  Last year they were first round considerations and may be again next year.  

Next time the draft rolls around to us we should have some good talent left at RB to fortify the position.  Here are some of the names that are still on the board in the fifth round of early mock drafts; Wells , McGahee, Moreno , Mendenhall, Jamal Lewis, and Derrick Ward.  With our upcoming picks we must address the RB3 and WR3 positions and look for opportunities at the QB and TE positions as well.  Here is how we have it shaking out;

5.10 Knowshon Moreno

6.03 Desean Jackson

7.10 Carson Palmer

8.03 Jeremy Shockey

Not bad, right?  Several players on our roster were acquired later than they have traditionally been drafted including; Palmer, Shockey, Lynch, and LJ.  Find value is critical if you are going to roll the dice and wait on running backs.  Looking at our squad after nine rounds, we ask you to be the judge, is this the season to ditch the RB/RB draft?

 

Below is a comparison between the team we just drafted and the RB/RB strategy team based on current ADP.  The third column represents a draft where we had the 3^rd overall pick, in that position you absolutely must take a RB in most scoring systems.  But, for this experiment we followed the first selection with back to back WRs.  See what you think of the final teams.  We look forward to your feedback. 

 

 

Below is a comparison between the team we just drafted and the RB/RB strategy team based on current ADP.  The third column represents a draft where we had the 3^rd overall pick, in that position you absolutely must take a RB in most scoring systems.  But, for this experiment we followed the first selection with back to back WRs.  See what you think of the final teams.  We look forward to your feedback. 

Picks By Round
Anti RB/RB	Pos.	Pick		RB/RB	Pos.	Pick		Mix	Pos.	Pick
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	1.10		Steve Slaton	RB	1.10		Matt Forte	RB	1.03
Randy Moss	WR	2.03		L. Tomlinson	RB	2.03		B. Marshall	WR	2.10
M. Lynch	RB	3.10		Houshmandzedah	WR	3.10		Dwayne Bowe	WR	3.03
Ryan Grant	RB	4.03		Tony Romo	QB	4.03		Ryan Grant	RB	4.10
K. Moreno	RB	5.10		Eddie Royal	WR	5.10		Antonio Gates	TE	5.03
Desean Jackson	WR	6.03		Desean Jackson	WR	6.10		Hines Ward	WR	6.10
Carson Palmer	QB	7.10		Darren Sproles	RB	7.10		Carson Palmer	QB	7.03
Jeremy Shockey	TE	8.03		Jeremy Shockey	TE	8.03		Donnie Avery	WR	8.10
Fred Jackson	RB	9.10		Kevin Walters	WR	9.10		Tim Hightower	RB	9.03

Roster By Position
Anti RB/RB	Pos.	Pick		RB/RB	Pos.	Pick		Mix	Pos.	Pick
Carson Palmer	QB	7.10		Tony Romo	QB	4.03		Carson Palmer	QB	7.03
M. Lynch	RB	3.10		Steve Slaton	RB	1.10		Matt Forte	RB	1.03
Ryan Grant	RB	4.03		L. Tomlinson	RB	2.03		Ryan Grant	RB	4.10
K. Moreno	RB	5.10		Darren Sproles	RB	7.10		Tim Hightower	RB	9.03
Fred Jackson	RB	9.10
Larry Fitzgerald	WR	1.10		Houshmandzedah	WR	3.10		B. Marshall	WR	2.10
Randy Moss	WR	2.03		Eddie Royal	WR	5.10		Dwayne Bowe	WR	3.03
Desean Jackson	WR	6.03		Desean Jackson	WR	6.03		Donnie Avery	WR	8.10
				Kevin Walters	WR	9.10		Hines Ward	WR	6.10
Jeremy Shockey	TE	8.03		Jeremy Shockey	TE	8.03		Antonio Gates	TE	5.03