By Rob Warner Remember when Shaun Alexander posted an NFL record 27 TDs in 2005 (only to see the record topped by LT’s 28 in 2006). At that time Alexander was 28 and had just finished his 6th NFL season.
He was a consensus top 3 Fantasy pick in 2006 and posted a pedestrian 896 yards and 7 TDs and is now out of the NFL.
In 1998 at the age of 26, Terrell Davis reached pay dirt an amazing 21 times. He followed that up with three injury riddled season and was out of the NFL before his 30th birthday.
Bottom line is age 30 is kryptonite for the fantasy running back and usually spells doom and last place finishes for owners who invests a first round pick on them.
The multi-talented Tomlinson enters his ninth NFL season in 2009 (turns 30 in June) and has topped 1,000 rushing yards, 10 TDs, 300 receiving yards every season so far. I’m saying the buck stops here. Tomlinson’s seat amongst fantasy royalty has been vacated.
The nagging toe injury lingers and the off-season re-signing of Darren Sproles (age 25) spells the dreaded RBBC. Combined these factors diminish LT’s value to below first round stock.
Despite Head Coach Norv Turner (not sure how he still has a job) proclaiming LT will remain the featured back, the Chargers brass figures to insist on some form of a time share to ensure that LT doesn’t break down like he has the past two seasons.
The Chargers franchise leading yard gainer by over 8,000 yards (Marion Butts is a distant second with just over 4,000 yards) has now logged 2,657 career carries (not counting the postseason). A decrease in his effectiveness and production shouldn't come as a surprise,
Here is how I see the first round breaking out…(notice that all but Westrook are younger and have fresher legs)
Player Age
1. Peterson 23
2. Turner 26
3. Jones-Drew 23
4. D. Williams 25
5. Forte 23
6. Westbrook 29
7. S. Jackson 25
8. C. Johnson 23
9. Gore 25
10. Fitzgerald 25
Arguments can be made to include Marion Barber (I see Felix Jones having a bigger role this season) and Andre Johnson who led the league in receptions (115) and receiving yards (1,575) in 2008. I can’t see any way to justify selecting LT over these two younger studs.
I’m predicting that the 2008 season was a sign of things to come as Tomlinson posted a career low in yards (1,110, less than 4 yard average) and his 11 touchdowns were the fewest since his rookie season.
Bottom line is that if selecting Tomlinson, wait until the middle of the second and you get a great value. Otherwise there are better players on the board which must less risk and greater upside.
