By Scott Paishley This is about more than me being nostalgic about a player that won me championships. As far as I can remember, I’ve never been lucky enough to have Landanian Tomlinson on a team.
Is he the same LT he was 2002-2007? No, and he never will be again.
So, he is not worth the 1st pick, or the 2nd, or the 5th pick overall, but I have seen such ridiculous statements as people declaring him unworthy of even a 6th round pick. The real argument here is whether he is a first or a second round player in 2009. I say he is still worth a late first round pick in a league of 12 or more teams.
2008 was indeed a down year and he is on the wrong side of 30, a doomsday number for running backs. It should tell you a little something when a down year means 1,100 yards and 12 TDs, not super, but not a disaster. Kinda like a bad hair day for Gissele.
Add on his 56 receptions and 426 yards and what you have is a top 10 back. In 2008, Tomlinson produced 14.10 fantasy points per game, good enough to tie Steve Slaton as the 8th overall point producer at the position, only 3 pts per game less than Micheal Turner who led all backs in points.
Tomlinson still managed 18.2 rushing attempts per game and only three other backs caught more passes. It is also worth noting that with 77 targets he was the most thrown to RB in the league. If Tomlinson scratched out a few more TDs and averaged 4.2 yards per carry as opposed to 3.8, he would have been a top 3 back.
It is not a stretch to imagine him doing just that in 2009, especially when you consider he will be facing the 4th easiest strength of schedule against the run. The teams the Chargers face gave up an average of 121.
Can you find 12 players worth drafting ahead of LT? Let’s go through the process of seeing if we can. Here are some obvious choices to pick before considering LT; Peterson, Turner, Forte, Jones-Drew, and Chris Johnson. After those five, the rest of players have similar issues to LT, and maybe more.
Can Gore and Westbrook stay healthy? How much more of a role will Stewart have, and at what cost to D. Williams? Is Barber going to bounce back and are Jackson’s Rams so bad that he won’t see daylight? Finally, are there WRs and QBs worth taking?
A modest bounce back, which means a couple less aches and pains, and LT is a top five, even top 3 player. The Chargers did not acquire a new back and Sproles is no every-down back and will not vulture too many carries.
Tomlinson’s injury concerns are no worse than those you should have with Westbrook. The concerns about losing carries to a backfield mate are less than what you what should have with C. Johnson, D. Williams, and Barber.
We are talking about a true twenty touch back that caught more passes than any RB last year. I see LT as the eighth best player in this draft and worth the risk. Once these players are off the board; Peterson, Turner, Forte, Jones-Drew, Chris Johnson, Jackson, and Gore,
I think LT should be scooped up. If you want to argue that Westbrook, Williams, and even Barber feel safer to you, go ahead, LT would still crack the top 12 even with those players selected ahead of him.
