This is the first installment in a series the will analyze each division and each team’s fantasy prospects. Look for Scott and Rob’s division previews and more fantasy coverage for Gcobb.com.
AFC North Fantasy Preview
Scott Pashley & Rob Warner
BALTIMORE RAVENS
Three Questions
1. Is Willis McGahee done?
2. Is there any Raven’s pass catcher worth having on your roster?
3. Can Flacco produce fantasy-wise?
Sleeper: Ray Rice. The former Rutgers standout will not be a sleeper by the time the season rolls around. He has a chance to be a #1 back and reminds a lot of people of Curtis Martin.
Over Valued: Todd Heap. Cannot and will not stay healthy long enough to contribute to your fantasy team and the addition of the king of false starts, LJ Smith, only makes him less likely to be a good fantasy option.
Under Valued: Derrick Mason. At least in a PPR this guy is more than solid. He may not catch many TDs and his YPC is not stellar but he hauls in a lot of passes and is dependable for points each week. He is rarely shut down. A very good #3 fantasy WR.
Stud: Um, none.
The Plan: Watch where Ray Rice sits on the depth charts, he could be a stud. The situation needs to be monitored. McClain led the team in rushing yards last year but he figures more as a blocker this year with the departure of FB Lorenzo Neal. Flacco’s not an option as a starting fantasy QB and of his receivers on Mason is worth considering. Watch the injury situation with Mason closely, he’s hobbled at OTAs.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
Three Questions
1. How many Bengals will end up in jail this year? Seriously, did you see the bad characters they continue to draft? The one man crime wave Chris Henry has plenty of company.
2. Can Ochocinco return to form and rank as a top 12 WR?
3. Is Cedric Benson for real?
Sleeper: Chase Coffman. Excellent pass catching tight end that is currently #3 on their depth chart behind Reggie Kelly and Ben Utecht, but the most talented of the bunch. Palmer would love to have a reliable valve from the TE position and the Bengals are tried to give it to him by taking Coffman out of Missouri in the 3rd.
Over Valued: Cedric Benson. Don’t even think of counting on this guy and his miniscule career YPC average as one of your top two RBs. He’s a number three that will be taken off the field on third down and maybe goal line situations in favor of newly acquired Brian Leonard.
Under Valued: Carson Palmer. Laverneus Coles should be listed as 1A in this category. But in Palmer we are talking about a guy that has ranked near the top of the fantasy QBs when healthy. He still has good targets in Ocho and Coles, has a good pass catching RB in Leonard, and may finally have a target at TE. He’s behind guys like Cutler and Roethlisberger in mock drafts and early rankings and he has more upside than either player.
Stud: Chad Ochocinco (Maybe?). He says he’s even going to workout this offseason. He had a really poor year and burned many a fantasy owner, including me, in 2008. But, with Housh gone and Palmer back, his numbers look to rebound. He may not really be a stud, but he is the closest this team has, strange considering that two years ago they had a list.
The Plan: The Bengals are ripe for draft day steals. Here are the players that can be had for less than they normally have been; Palmer, Ochocinco, and the #2 WR (Coles now). I have long been a fan of the draft strategy whereby you are the last to draft a QB and first to draft a backup, from there you play matchups.
You may end up with Palmer and Matt Ryan and rotating them. Follow the news on Coles. He is in the possession receiver spot for this team now and that has traditionally produced 80-100 catches a season. See is Chad is all talk and what the reports say about his rapport with Palmer and his speed and conditioning. Strongly consider Benson as your #3 RB.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
Three Questions
1. Who will be QB?
2. Can Braylon Edwards bounce back and where should be drafted?
3. Does Jamal Lewis have another 1,000 yard campaign in him?
Sleeper: Brain Robiskie – The home town rookie (Ohio State) may win the starting job opposite Edwards. If he doesn’t then it most likely means that fellow rookie 2nd round pick, Mohamed Massaquoi, has won the job and he is the sleeper. Pay attention to the battle.
Over Valued: Any QB – Derrick Anderson produced big numbers as a starter a couple years ago. It is that performance that fuels much of the attention the QB in Cleveland receives, but whoever wins will not be nearly a top 12 player at the position.
Under Valued: Jamal Lewis – Mangini thinks that the 2008 statistical underperformance for Lewis was largely due to the dreadful passing attack and inconsistencies on the offensive line.
Lewis is 30 now and while we think he has one more year, this year, we think that is all he has in him. The Browns have no real option behind him. He is a better receiver than he gets credit for and has never rushed for less than 900 yards in a full season.
Stud: None.
The Plan: Watch Edwards closely in the preseason and camp reports. He could be a steal if his hands of stone have softened and his attitude is better. The QB situation may never be clear and the winner may be on a short leash. Check to see which rookie WR is excelling and take a late flyer. Lewis is a mid-round steal as your number three running back.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Three Questions
1. How many carries with Parker lose to Mendenhall?
2. Can Holmes supplant Ward as the go-to guy and #1 WR?
3. Can Roethlisberger produce like 2007 (32 TDs) again?
Sleeper: Rashard Mendenhall. You can’t really call Mendenhall a true sleeper, but he’s the closest thing this team has to a sleeper. You would like to be able to call Limas Sweed a sleeper but nothing from his 2008 performance leads one to believe he is on track to put up any stats in 2009.
Over Valued: Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben is a 15-20 TD QB who is in a ball control offense and destined to be in the 15-20 TD range every year. His 2007 performance was an aberration.
Under Valued: Hines Ward. Every year people try to bury Ward, but he keeps on ticking. While Ward is no longer a #1, he is a reliable third receiver on your fantasy squad.
Stud: None. Fantasy-wise the Steelers are in flux. Willie Parker is in the final year of his contract and his heir apparent is on the roster. He most likely will not be on the Steelers roster next year, at least not as the number one back.
Mendenhall is essentially a rookie and will not be a stud this year. Ward is in a similar situation to Parker. His best days are behind him but his heir, Santonio Holmes, lacks emotional and on-field maturity and is too inconsistent to be labeled a stud right now.
The Plan: Stay tuned to what the staff is saying about the backfield balance. Drafting Parker as your third back in round 6 and Mendenhall as your fourth in round 9-10 will leave you deep at the position.
Mendenhall has much more value in keeper leagues. Holmes is being taken too high when owners draft him in the fourth and Ward is providing nice value in the 7th round right now. Ben is no more than a second QB. Pay attention to who wins the third receive spot.
Sweed has all the tools to be a good producer and if one of the starters gets hurt he could step in and produce as a bye week fill in. Heath Miller is a great late round second TE that sometimes gets ignored in drafts. Watch for a possible suspension for Holmes from his marijuana possession case.
