It’s Too Early For The Phillies To Shorten Their Rotation

Kyle Kendrick has been hard to watch over his last six starts. Kendrick, who had pitched fairly well for a 5^th starter this season, has given up at least four runs in five of his last six starts. He’s only made it through six innings twice in that same stretch.

Kendrick’s ERA has also been climbing at an alarming rate. In his last five starts, it has risen from a respectable (for a 5^th starter) 4.40 to almost 5; rising steadily from 4.45, to 4.58 to 4.64 to 4.72, and finally to 4.89 after Sundays 4 inning outing against the Brewers.

Kendrick has lost the form that he had through most of July and his struggles have many people calling for the Phillies to shorten their rotation for the remainder of the season. The Phillies may want to consider such an option later in the month, but right now it’s too early to seriously consider that option.

A team that shortens it’s rotation too soon is a team that is usually in a desperate situation fighting for their postseason hopes. The best example of this may be the 2008 Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers were slipping away from playoff contention and had to run C.C. Sabathia into the ground by pitching him every third day in order to claw their way into the wild card spot. The Phillies aren’t in a desperate situation. They have a firm control over the wild card and are only one game out first place in the National League East.

The Phillies biggest strength in the postseason in going to be their starting rotation of Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt. All three pitchers have a lot of innings on their arms already this season. Asking them to work on short rest for the rest of September, and wearing them down by the time October arrives isn’t a good idea.

In fact, because the Phillies have the luxury of three aces (really a rare luxury in modern baseball) is another reason why it isn’t necessary for them to shorten the rotation. Three of every five days the Phillies will have a good chance to win any given game with their current rotation. Joe Blanton has also pitched much better recently and also gives the team a decent chance to win.

Maybe people are spoiled by the great pitchers at the top of the Phillies rotation, and maybe people expect too much from Kyle Kendrick. Kendrick is what he is,  a 5^th starter who will typically go between five and six innings and give up between three and five runs. Kendrick isn’t a guy you want on the mound in a big game, but he isn’t Adam Eaton either.

Like it or not, leaving Kendrick in the rotation is important. Skipping Kendrick’s turn in the rotation won’t help the Phillies chances in October. The time to talk about pitching Halladay/Hamels/Oswalt on short rest shouldn’t be coming in early September (especially considering where this team is currently positioned in the standings), that talk should be reserved for October, and October alone.