Before you begin to send hate mail towards me for even bringing up Justin Upton’s name in the same sentence as the Philadelphia Phillies, I am not suggesting that the Phillies should make a push to acquire Upton in a trade because, honestly, who wants a guy that strikes out just as much as Ryan Howard does, but has far less power and even a lower batting average?
I am, in fact, suggesting that an Upton trade to a team other than the Phillies COULD give Philadelphia a better chance of re-signing Jayson Werth.
Hear me out.
There are teams that are already interested in acquiring the right-handed bat of Upton, and one of those teams is the Boston Red Sox. Let’s say that the Red Sox find a way to acquire Upton, their need for a right fielder is gone, and with it, the chances of Werth going to Beantown are diminished.
That leaves Werth with one less team to sign with, and considering that the Red Sox may be the one team that could offer Werth the money he desires, his other suitors may not be able to pay him his desired contract and will not appeal to him as much as the Phillies are able to present themselves.
But that leaves the question, is Upton a better option than Werth for the Red Sox?
Well, Upton just signed a six-year contract last March, and the early stages of his contract are relatively low (he is due $4.25 million next season). However, his contract will get bigger towards the end of the contract, but he is still a very young player and was the first overall pick in the 2005 draft.
His numbers, aside from his strikeout rate, aren’t necessarily Werth-like numbers, but they’re not sub-par either. He batted .273 with 17 home runs and 69 RBI’s with the Diamondbacks last season, but in 2008, he batted .300 with 86 RBI’s. The potential is there, and that may be the biggest thing he has on Werth.
Now if the Red Sox do acquire Upton, it will take a very appealing package to convince the Diamondbacks to let go of the 23 year old. But Boston has a very good farm system and may be the one team that could offer the best deal for Arizona.
Werth is 32 years old and isn’t getting any younger. He is coming off a terrific 2010 season, but he will eventually see a decline in his numbers, and in my opinion, he isn’t a long-term option for any team, whereas Upton will be a long-term option for whichever club he ends up with.
If Upton lands with Boston, and Carl Crawford lands with the Los Angeles Angels, that will leave Werth with two-less contending teams and will result in him having to lower his asking price.
As a result of lowering his asking price, the Philles would most likely become the front-runners to land Werth, and if he chooses to come back to the city that made him who he is today, the Phillies would head into 2011 as not only the National League favorites, but the overall favorite to win the World Series.
I don’t think they’d be the favorite even with Werth. The Yankees are going to sign Lee, so they’ll be the favorite. And if our batting stays the same as last year, we won’t be making it to the World Series. If Werth signs somewhere else, we should put up the big bucks for Crawford. We’d probably still be under the cap that the Mets have spent. Jimmy looks like he’s lost his game (speed and hitting) and Ibanez is killing us out there. Three years for an ancient starting outfielder? That’s fine for a pitcher, but not someone who does so much running…. with speed.
I understand the Phillies’ bats went cold in the playoffs, but they still had the 2nd rated offense in the National League last season, and will return all of their bats (minus Werth, possibly). Yes, Rollins struggled last season, but he never was able to stay healthy for a good portion of the season to get his bat going, either.
The Phillies rotation will be just fine, and shouldn’t surrender too many runs, which will benefit the offense, who may only need to score 3-5 runs per game to win their games.
As for the Yankees, they will be good, and their rotation will be good with Lee and Sabathia at the top, but their offense isn’t as dominant in years past, and they didn’t hit well in the playoffs, either.
The Phillies and Yankees will be 1A and 1B in terms of the World Series.
People need to just let go of Werth. Dominic Brown should not be held up and he would cost the Phillies so much less leaving more money to sign Hamels and realistically get into the Cliff Lee sweepstakes. Getting Lee would allow them to move Blanton into the Bullpen to solidify middle relief.