Projecting The Philadelphia Phillies Rotation

As the Phillies’ pitchers and catchers prepare to set their sights for Clearwater, Florida, all the cameras will be focused on the reigning Cy Young award winner Roy Halladay and his three counterparts who are equally impressive as him.

And then there’s the other guy, Joe Blanton.

But as a group, from top-to-bottom, the Phillies have, arguably, the best pitching rotation baseball has ever seen since the ’98 Braves, who had a combined ERA of 2.97.

The aforementioned Halladay, who has 169 career wins in 13 seasons,  is carving out his road to Cooperstown all while attempting to capture the one hardware he has yet to call his own – a World Series ring.

The Phillies prized possession of the past offseason, Cliff Lee, is ready to bring the city of Philadelphia something he nearly delivered to them two seasons ago – a parade down Broad Street.

Then there’s Roy Oswalt, who went 7-1 after being acquired by the Phils halfway through the season, and Cole Hamels, who saw his record not pan out the way he had hoped because of the lack of run production his offense provided him.

Manning the fifth spot is Blanton, who boasts a career record of 72-60. Though he is no where near the level of his colleagues, Blanton is a solid pitcher, especially as a fifth option.

Many experts and fans have offered up their take on how this rotation will fare in 2011. There’s been some folks who believe both Halladay and Lee will reach the 20 win mark, which would be an astounding feat.

Then there’s the anti-Phillies group who believes this rotation is over-hyped and none of them will get over 18 wins.

After hearing all these numbers and projections  fly around from mouth-to-mouth, I decided to take on the task of delivering my own predictions for this pitching staff.

Without further ado, I present my 2011 projections for the Phillies rotation:

Roy Halladay: 20-5, 2.86 ERA, 195 SO
As he does every year, Halladay will be among the Cy Young candidates throughout the season and with a “World Series or bust” mentality, Halladay will string together his first ever back-to-back 20 win seasons.

Cliff Lee: 16-6, 3.20 ERA, 175 SO
Lee’s a great pitcher, but he’s only won 15+ games twice in his season. However, during his first stint in Philly, Lee went 7-4 and pitched very effective, give him a whole season in red pinstripes and he will have a chance at 16+ wins.

Roy Oswalt: 15-8, 3.43 ERA, 171 SO
He has won 15 or more games twice since 2006 and seeing how he went 7-1 last season in Philly, it’s hard to imagine him not getting more than 15 wins, but someone has to finish with the least amount of wins among the Fab Four.

Cole Hamels: 16-9, 3.40 ERA, 190 SO
Out of the four aces on the team, Hamels could wind up being the most effective, especially if he gets matched up against the oppositions fourth pitcher.

Joe Blanton: 10-9, 4.25 ERA, 133 SO
10 wins for Blanton may be a bit high, but I’m banking on the Phillies’ offense stepping up when he takes to the mound. Knowing that he is vulnerable to surrendering anywhere from three to five (sometimes more) runs per game, the offense will have to provide run support in order to win on the days he pitches.