The newest series to GCobb.com, Phillies Phourcast, will dissect each player on the Phillies’ roster, analyze each player’s past seasons and release the player’s projections for 2011.
The first edition of Phillies Phourcast will begin in centerfield, a place where Shane Victorino calls home.
Victorino, who began his career with the San Diego Padres back in 2003, finished with the lowest batting average of his major league career, .259. In previous seasons, Victorino batted .292 (2009) and .293 (2008), respectively.
Don’t get down on the Phylin’ Hawaiian just yet. Though, his numbers suggest he could be approaching a period of decline, especially because he is 30 years-old, I believe his average will fall between .270 and .280, which would be a major improvement from his numbers in 2010.
In the final month of the season, Victorino reverted to his normal self, batting .296 with three homers.
Batting Average (Past Five Seasons)
2006: .287 (153 games)
2007: .281 (131 games)
2008: .293 (146 games)
2009: .292 (156 games)
2010: .259 (147 games)
However, from a power standpoint, Victorino surprisingly saw an increase in terms of home run totals compared to seasons past. The 2009 All-Star selection belted 18 home runs in 2010, which was four more than his previous high of 14 back in 2008.
He finished with the third highest total on the team behind Ryan Howard and the now departed Jayson Werth.
As I mentioned earlier, I expect Victorino to bounce-back from his .259 average, but I do not believe he will surpass his career-high 18 home runs set last season. I do, however, expect him to finish with 13 or more home runs this season.
Home Runs (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 6
2007: 12
2008: 14
2009: 10
2010: 18
His results in the power department translated into a career-high for RBI’s with 69, which was seven more than his previous high set in 2009. His 69 RBI’s ranked fourth on the team and fourth in the National League for centerfielders.
As of now, Victorino appears to be penciled in as the team’s six-hole hitter in the lineup with Jimmy Rollins and Placido Polanco manning the top two spots. If the Phillies can receive 60+ RBI’s from Victorino, their offense should continue to reign in the NL, assuming that Chase Utley and Ryan Howard live up to their expected numbers.
But the question remains, can Victorino eclipse 60 RBI’s for the third consecutive season?
In my opinion, he will have no trouble reaching the 60 RBI mark, but I don’t expect 70 or more RBI’s from him this season.
Runs Batted-In (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 46
2007: 46
2008: 58
2009: 62
2010: 69
The biggest threat with Victorino doesn’t lie at the plate. It’s his legs that have kept him near the top of the league in steals and runs.
His 34 steals in 2010 led the Phillies and placed him in a tie for third place with Washington’s Nyjer Morgan among NL centerfielders.
He also accounted for 84 runs, which was his lowest total since 2007 (78). But this goes back to his poor average and lackluster .327 on-base percentage, which was a career-low.
Without further ado, I present my projections, along with baseball writer/statistician Bill James’ projections , for Victorino in the 2011 season:
Kyle Phillippi’s Projections/Bill James’ Projections
Batting Average: .280/.279
Home Runs: 15/16
Runs Batted-In: 63/66
Stolen Bases: 35/30
Runs: 90/97
How do you believe Victorino will perform in 2011? Will he keep up the power numbers or rely more on average?
If he were to choke up on the bat and cut down on swing a bit and concentrate on hitting down on the ball, and combine this batting style with mastering on how to bunt, I think he could be a .300 Hitter easily and be on base a lot more which in turn would lead him to more steals and more runs
He pops-up way to much for a small guy.. I would rather he hit 6-8 Homers a season and bat .300 than hit 14-15 Homers and bat .275 and he pulls the ball too much and has a tendancy to overswing and especially on the down and in curve/slider pitches.. he also chases too many high pitches..
Paulman’s 2011 Projection for Victorino
Batting Average .279
HR – 14
RBI’s – 57
SB – 26
Strike Outs – 82
Bases on Balls – 48
Your BA projection comes up a whole 7 points today as compared to yesterday?Ribs comes up 5?
All i know is the dude is a gamer who can win us a game with a liner/homer and runs everything down in the outfield.
I project a bobblehead night with much fanfare.
Nice pic too G.
Hey catcher….get some Philly style!
To Erock,
I did bump up Victorino’s batting average since Batting Coach said he solved Victorino’s problem from chasing high strikes by getting a new pair of glasses
so I figured he would get a few more base hits ..
Sure dude…they also found a man wondering the Mohavee for a few years living off of rain water and cactus. And he had no knowledge of the Phills inking Cliff Lee or there recent world title.He picked the Braves to win the division.However,he was informed of there moves and updated on our line-up for this year. He changed his pick to the Phills… and was quoted as saying..” Only a man lost in the desert or some dude out of touch in the mountains would pick the sucker Braves.”
I hope your Right about the Phils Erock,
I like the headline of “Batting Coach Gross Solves Dom Brown’s Swing”…
Let’s wait until he faces some live Pitchers that aren’t throwing him battinig practice..ridiculous..
I see the Phils everyday line-up as above average and nothing more..
Theie Defense & Bench have gotten weaker, their Bullpen is about the same and has lots of old arms in it (Lidge,Contrerars,Baes,Romero in it)
and let’s see how the “Fab Four” fare..
I think the Reds,Brewers,aves,