The newest series to GCobb.com, Phillies Phourcast, will dissect each player on the Phillies’ roster, analyze each player’s past seasons and release the player’s projections for 2011.
The second installment of Phillies Phourcast will move to the hot corner where Placido Polanco resides.
In 2010, Polanco batted .298 with 52 RBI’s and six home runs, which was his lowest total since 2006 (4).
Many believed the switch from Comerica Park to Citizens Bank Park would result in a power surge for Polanco; however, his power numbers dipped, but his average and runs batted-in remained constant to his career averages.
Polanco, who is coming off offseason shoulder surgery, should be able to maintain his .295+ average throughout the 2011 season if he is fully recovered from the surgery. Ruben Amaro Jr. said earlier this week that Polanco “should be 100 percent” heading into spring training.
With that said, I believe Polanco will continue to be one of the team’s top hitters in 2011 and remain a tough out for opposing pitchers.
Batting Average (Past Five Seasons)
2006: .295
2007: .341
2008: .307
2009: .285
2010: .298
As I mentioned earlier, Polanco’s power numbers didn’t live up to the expectations many had set upon him after he joined the Phillies.
Citizens Bank Park ranked 10th among MLB stadiums in terms of home runs, whereas Polanco’s former home, Comerica Park, ranked 18th.
But don’t let his decreasing power numbers be a cause for concern. Before Polanco arrived, the Phillies never had a quality bat at the hot corner. Sure, Pedro Feliz had some big hits but those hits came sparingly, and he never batted above .266 while in Philadelphia.
Home Runs (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 4
2007: 9
2008: 8
2009: 10
2010: 6
Though, his home runs went down, his RBI’s didn’t necessarily fall drastically. Aside from his superb 2009 season when he batted in 72 runs for Detroit, Polanco tends to hit between 50-60 RBI’s per season.
Considering that he most likely will be batting in the two spot in the order, Polanco won’t have as many RBI opportunities as a middle-of-the-lineup hitter.
However, I do expect him to knock in at least 50 runs this season, but I won’t get impudent and say he’ll surpass his career-high of 72 RBI’s.
Runs Batted-In (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 52
2007: 67
2008: 58
2009: 72
2010: 52
Unlike his counterparts, Polanco doesn’t provide flashy, top-ten plays; however, he is a great all-around player who has tremendous contact skills and a good glove at the hot corner, as well as at second base when Chase Utley gets a day off.
His strongest asset is his consistency. The Phillies’ organization, fans, and opposing teams know what to expect from Polanco game-in and game-out. He will fight off pitches at the plate, take the ball the other way and make smart decisions on the base paths.
Without further ado, I present my projections, along with statistician Bill James’ projections, for Polanco for the 2011 season:
Batting Average: .290/.295
Home Runs: 10/7
Runs Batted-In: 58/62
Stolen Bases: 7/5
Runs: 90/83
Polanco’s is one of the best all-around players in baseball who no one knows..
He had hand,elbow and shoulder injuries all year last Season..
I expect his Power #’s to jump up a little bit, but he’s never really been a powere hitter, he’s a contact hitter which you can never have enough of
Paulman’s 2011 Forecast for Polanco
Batting Average .286
# of HR’s — 14
# of RBI’s — 62
# of Strike outs — 46
# of Base on Balls – 38
Good projections. If the Phils can get 14 home runs from Polanco, that would be huge. He hasn’t had that many since 2004.
Your average may be a bit low, but not far off from what many are projecting, I still feel he’s a .290+ hitter.