The newest series to GCobb.com, Phillies Phourcast, will dissect each player on the Phillies’ roster, analyze each player’s past seasons and release the player’s projections for 2011.
The fourth installment of Phillies Phourcast will spotlight the 2006 Home Run Derby winner and former MVP, Ryan Howard.
A fifth round selection in the 2001 draft, Howard has blossomed into one of the premier power hitters in all of baseball.
Typically, many of the top power hitters in the MLB have a habit of striking out…often. Despite his tremendous ability, Howard isn’t immune to this trend, having four straight seasons with 181+ strikeouts, including multiple 199 strikeout seasons.
But Howard, who switched up his stance heading into last season, cut down on his strikeouts, finishing with just 157 in 2010, his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter.
However, the lower strikeout rate didn’t improve his average, but considering that Howard, along with many of his teammates, experienced a disappointing season statistically, the critics who are quick to call out Howard for underperforming should hold off their remarks because I expect Howard to remain around 150-160 strikeouts AND finish with an average around .280.
Batting Average (Past Five Seasons)
2006: .313
2007: .268
2008: .251
2009: .279
2010: .276
Phillies fans know not to expect Howard to bat for average; instead, Howard is expected to deliver the “Howard Hammer” every time he steps up to the plate.
With 253 home runs in his career, Howard has garnered the respect of opposing pitchers. Averaging nearly 47 home runs per season, Howard accounted for just 31 home runs in 2010 — his lowest total since taking over for Jim Thome.
His power isn’t declining but seeing that he had zero home runs in the postseason last season is a bit unsettling.
Howard will definitely compile more than 31 home runs this season barring injury, and he has a chance to surpass 40 for the sixth time in his career.
Home Runs (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 58
2007: 47
2008: 48
2009: 45
2010: 31
With Jayson Werth gone, all the pressure to knock in runs lies on the shoulders of Howard. Though, he is more than capable of reaching 140+ RBI’s, which he has done three times in his career, Howard struggled to surpass 100 RBI’s last season, finishing with just 108.
The 2011 season may be the most important season for Howard and his wall-shots for four reasons: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels. All four of these pitchers will keep the score low on a regular night, and if Howard can hit just one gap shot with a runner on or execute a sacrifice fly, the Phillies could wind up winning a game 1-0.
Runs Batted-In (Past Five Seasons)
2006: 149
2007: 136
2008: 146
2009: 141
2010: 108
Howard is good for a few things: home runs, RBI’s, and striking fear in opposing pitchers, unless you’re Brian Wilson (see final out in NLCS).
The slugging first baseman will occasionally make a few nice plays in the field, but he will also make errors aplenty (14 errors in 2010).
He did a good job adjusting his swing to cut down on strikeouts, but now he needs to work on developing an eye at the plate so he can create more 3-1, 3-2 counts (counts that typically result in a fastball being thrown).
Without further ado, I present my projections, along with statistician Bill James’ projections, for Howard for the 2011 season:
Batting Average: .280/.276
Runs Batted-In: 141/133
Home Runs: 40/43
Runs: 101/98
Strikeouts: 160
R Howard has improved his overall game and cut back a little on the strikeouts and improved a lot with the glove though he still scares me playing 1st Base late in a game for his misplays or simply doesn’t get to the ball like most MLB 1st Baseman do..
I think batting wise, the key is going to be who effective is the #5 Hitter behind him… If Ibanaz,Francisco, or whoever bats 5th is simpley average or struggles, the R Howard will see more off-speed and breaking balls which he struggles to hit unless a Pitcher gets behind in count and grooves one..
Howards is not a bad-ball Hitter, he must get Pitches in his “Zone” to be effective, and Most pitchers have learned to stay away from his Zone..
Ithink if he cut down on his swing and that he could bat .285-.290 Consistenetly while getting in the upper 30’s in HR and still knocking in 120 RBI’s… But going into this season with a question marks on who effective the #5 and #6 HItters will be behind himi, I think he will see a lot more junk pitches which he will get frustrated and start chasing balls out of the Strike Zone
Paulmans 2011 Stats for R Howard
Batting Average .272
Home Runs 38
RBI”s 119
Strike-Outs 168
Errors 23
I’m not a huge baseball fan, but I love the Phillies’ aggressiveness in trying to stay on top. I can handle failure, but lack of effort makes me apathetic toward the sport.