Is Phillies First Baseman Ryan Howard Overrated?

After singling home a run during last Wednesday’s nine to one win over the Pirates, Ryan Howard increased his RBI total to a National League leading 74. However, the 31-year-old was not selected to attend this year’s All-Star Game for the first time since 2008.
Did the Philly slugger get snubbed?

Prince Fielder was selected by the fans, while Gaby Sanchez was chosen by Kirk Gibson to finish out the lineup. The Brewers’ first baseman leads Howard in all offensive categories except RBIs in which he trails by only one. On the other hand, the Marlins’ former rookie of the year brings solid contact and a batting average 40 points higher than the 2006 MVP. (Not to mention an on-base-percentage over 20 points higher.)

Fielder ended up getting the job done for the National League during their five to one win over the AL. The hefty Brewer hit a three-run homerun in the bottom of the fourth, off C.J. Wilson which proved to be the game-winner. But should the Phillies’ lefty have been sitting in the desert with the rest of the NL’s best?

Seventy-four RBIs in July is nothing short of a great season, but how much has Howard actually been bringing to the table for Philadelphia?

Although keeping his power numbers up, Howard has seen his average and on-base-percentage slowly dropping year after year. With an average below .250, the Philly Faithful are hoping for an enormous finish to the season out of their Silver Slugger, but if 2010’s injury plagued second half proves to be the trend expect nothing better than his non-all-star caliber first half.

Even with a drop in his average, hits and OBP, the main concern I have is with the steady decline in the amount of walks Howard has received over the past six years. This simple stat shows that pitchers are beginning to figure out how to pitch to the centerpiece of Philadelphia’s lineup. His steadily dropping average also shows the success pitchers are beginning to have exploiting his less-than-stellar eye.

Don’t get me wrong, Howard is going to continue to put up great power numbers, especially in the RBI column. But how important are RBIs to a baseball team?

Sure they bring in runs, but during this age in baseball, statisticians are starting to believe that RBIs are slowly becoming less pertinent when compared to WAR (Wins above Replacement) and RAR (Runs above Replacement).

Howard’s WAR is less than half of what he posted just two years ago, while his RAR is 43 runs less than his MVP season in 2006. I don’t necessarily agree with the way these stats are calculated because it is nearly impossible to assume how the average Triple A player will cope in the majors, but even those calculations point to the trend that the Missouri native’s best years are past him.

With many teams moving their approach to small ball, on-base-percentage becomes extremely important. I know Philly is far from being a small ball team, but what if they decide to give in to the inclination before their clean-up man’s contract expires in 2017?

Philadelphia isn’t going to up and trade one of their key players, they proved that after moving top-prospect Jon Singleton to the outfield. But if Charlie Manuel does decides to give this OBP based style a try, for the first time in his career, Howard won’t fit in. Philadelphia has time to decide but by the time his extension is up, the slugger will have just turned 38 and there won’t be much left in his tank.

With not many stellar first base prospects in their farm, the only real threat for Howard’s current position would be a diamond in the ruff. Singleton, Phillies top prospect, was moved to the outfield and Matt Rizzotti is starting to seem like a career Double-A player, so Howard is safe. For now.

But when will the Phillies draft a stud first baseman to take over the throne? I think it will be sooner rather than later.
There is no doubt Howard is a fan favorite, but how long will he be able to keep fans in the stands? Think of it this way, if his numbers are steadily declining now, what will they be like in five years, better yet in 2017?