A Look At Week 3 In The NFL

Overall Record: 22-10

Last Week: 12-4

Week 2 Prophecies: “I see the Lions as the overwhelming favorite in this game. The Chiefs are going to have a hard time suppressing all of the dangerous offensive players of Detroit”

“Expect the Steelers to make amends this week with a blowout performance. The Seahawks will still be without receiver Sidney Rice, but even if he were available it wouldn’t make much of a difference. Seattle will serve as a punching bag for the Steelers and their frustrations on Sunday.”

“The Washington defense holds the key to this game. If they can suppress Kolb and the Cardinal offense to keep it close, I think Grossman and the offense can do enough damage to get the job done.”

“Chad Henne is very similar to Chicago’s Jay Cutler in the sense that he can look brilliant one week, and then be a turnover machine the next. I don’t think Henne sustains his level of play from Week 1, I think the Wade Phillips-led Houston defense will come up with a good gameplan to shut the Miami offense down, and move the Texans to 2-0”

Week 2 Lies:  “I have to believe the Colts win this game. Though they’re not the same team without Manning, this is still a team with a number of established veterans that won’t let the slaughter in Houston send this team to the bottom of the barrel just yet.”

“The Falcons are expected to give the Eagles a heavy dose of Michael Turner, but the Eagles have always contained him well.”

Week 3 Picks

New England @ Buffalo

The Patriots have had little difficulty marching to a 2-0 start. Tom Brady has thrown for 940 yards and seven touchdowns through two weeks, bringing back memories of how he started off during the 2007 season. The Patriots have also beaten a pair of quality opponents soundly, taking down Miami on the road and Chargers at home.

Buffalo is off to one of their best starts in years, and they’ve done it by scoring nearly 80 points through the first two weeks. Last week they rallied from a 21-0 hole to defeat the Oakland Raiders in dramatic fashion by a score of 38-35. Ryan Fitzpatrick is beginning to establish himself as a legitimate NFL starter, and has also thrown for seven scores in two weeks.

If the Bills were to take down the Patriots at home and go to 3-0, it would be a heck of a statement to the rest of the league. But unfortunately for Buffalo, that won’t be the case. I just can’t see the Bills coming up with an answer for Brady’s powerful offense. Chad Henne and the Miami Dolphins gave the Patriots their best game several weeks ago and it wasn’t enough, expect the same fate for Fitzpatrick and the Bills.

Pick: New England

Jacksonville @ Carolina

There is no 0-2 team that is feeling better about themselves than the Carolina Panthers. Cam Newton has put on two spectacular performances, throwing for over 800 yards in his first two games. The rookie made a number of big plays that helped get the Panthers out to double-digit lead against the heavily favored Packers. He did show his youth though, throwing three interceptions that helped bail Green Bay out.

Jacksonville got a little high on themselves after beating the Titans in Week 1 and talked a big game before getting smacked 32-3 by the Jets. Quarterback Luke McCown threw for 59 yards and four interceptions before being benched in favor of first-round pick Blain Gabbert. With Maurice Jones-Drew as the only legitimate offensive threat, the Jaguars will have trouble scoring more than 20 points.

The Panthers have suffered several significant injuries to their defense already, losing linebackers Jon Beason and Thomas Davis for the season, but if Newton sustains his level of play from the first two weeks of the season, the Panthers should win easily at home.

Pick: Carolina

Houston @ New Orleans

This is the first big test for the Texans this season. After blowing out a crippled Colts team and earning a nice road victory against the Dolphins, they’ll face one of the strongest teams in the NFC. New defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has his unit playing well, forcing turnovers in Week 1 and suppressing a Miami offense that put up over 500 yards in their first game. Will they be able to do the same against Drew Brees and the Saints?

New Orleans bounced back from their Week 1 loss with a solid 30-13 victory over the Chicago Bears. Drew Brees picked the Chicago defense apart, throwing for 270 yards and three touchdowns, and the New Orleans defense was much stronger last week, piling up six sacks, forcing three fumbles, and holding Jay Cutler to just 19/45 for 244 yards, 10 of those passes going to running back Matt Forte.

I believe that Brees and the Saints will knock Houston down a notch. The Saints have too many weapons for the Texans to account for. If the Saints defense can build on their strong performance against the Bears from Week 2, that will only makes things even more difficult for Schaub and the Texans to pull off another road upset.

Pick: New Orleans

Cincinnati @ San Francisco

The Bengals showed a little life behind rookie quarterback Andy Dalton last week in Denver. Dalton threw for 332 yards and two touchdowns and the Bengals had two receivers (Jerome Simpson and A.J. Green) go for over 100 yards receiving. It wasn’t enough to complete a comeback on the road against the Broncos, but it was an encouraging performance nonetheless.

The 49ers looked as though they were on their way to an upset over the Cowboys, holding a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter. However, once Tony Romo returned to the game, they were unable to keep the Dallas offense in check and eventually lost in overtime. Once again, the offense was underwhelming, quarterback Alex Smith threw for just 179 yards and Frank Gore only ran for 47 yards on 20 carries.

Was Dalton’s performance against Denver for real or just a flash in the pan? Either way it’s going to be hard for Cincinnati to go out west and defeat San Francisco. The 49ers defense will be much more challenging for Dalton to put up big numbers against, and I have to believe that Frank Gore and the offense will be due for a much better performance after two mediocre efforts to start the season.

Pick: San Francisco

Miami @ Cleveland

The Dolphins season is off to a frustrating start after dropping their first two games at home. Predictably, Chad Henne was not able to sustain the level of play he had in Week 1, and threw for just 170 yards against Houston’s defense. Running back Daniel Thomas did however rush for over 100 yards, which is good news for Miami. They need a legitimate running threat for Henne to succeed regularly, and Reggie Bush isn’t the answer.

The Browns earned a road victory over a lifeless Colts team in Week 2. Cleveland took advantage of several Kerry Collins turnovers, and running back Peyton Hillis had a strong game, rushing for 94 yards and two touchdowns. Quarterback Colt McCoy connected with eight different receivers, but only threw for 211 yards.

I think this is the week Miami puts it all together for their first win of the season. The Browns couldn’t put away the Bengals in Week 1 at home, and were essentially handed a victory by a Colts team that seems to be playing with very little energy right now. It’s a must-win for Miami, who can’t afford to go 0-3 if they want any shot the playoffs.

Pick: Miami

Detroit @ Minnesota

So far so good for Matt Stafford and the Lions. Detroit has done a good job at living up to the expectations of dramatic improvement that many experts had set for them at the start of the season. The Lions pummeled the hapless Chiefs at home last week by a count of 48-3. Stafford threw four scores against Kansas City, giving him seven through two weeks.

For the second straight week, Donovan McNabb and the Minnesota Vikings only showed up for the first half. This time, they watched a 17-0 halftime lead slowly disappear and turn into an embarrassing 24-20 loss in front of the home fans.

It’s a must-win situation for Minnesota. A team that could be 2-0 is already 0-2, and to lose even more ground to the Packers, Lions, and Bears would be a disaster. However, the Vikings are going to have their hands full on Sunday. The Lions offense has been as good as advertised so far, and the Vikings don’t have the defensive strength to slow them down.

Pick: Detroit

New York Giants @ Philadelphia

The Giants avoided an 0-2 start by taking down the Rams on Monday night 28-16. It wasn’t the Giants’ best performance, but it was enough to get the job done. Eli Manning hasn’t been particularly impressive this season. He’s thrown just two touchdowns so far, and has been making a number of ill-advised throws. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs did a decent job in the running game last week. The two split carries, and combined for 109 yards and a touchdown on 31 carries. The Giants biggest strength comes from their pass rush, anchored by Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul.

Turnovers and poor defensive play cost the Eagles in their game against Atlanta last week. The good news is that Michael Vick seems likely to play, even though he was knocked out of the game with a concussion. The Eagles did a poor job against the run once again, allowing Michael Turner to gain 114 yards, including a 61-yard burst in the fourth quarter to help put the Falcons on top for good.

The Eagles have dominated the Giants as of late, winning the last six games between the two teams. A key to the game will be for the Eagles to jump out to an early lead, and force the Giants away from their running game. Brandon Jacobs has had some big games against Philadelphia in the past, and could be due for another because of the Eagles “wide nine” defensive line alignment, and their poor linebackers. If Vick and the Eagles offense can get off to a strong start, the Giants will be forced to lean on Manning rather than the run, something that would bode very well for the Eagles.

Pick: Philadelphia

Denver @ Tennessee

The Broncos picked up their first win last week, outlasting the Bengals at home 24-22. Wide receiver Eric Decker had 113 receiving yards and caught two touchdowns, including a 52-yard score in the fourth quarter to seal the win. Denver’s defense has not been impressive so far, they allowed rookie Andy Dalton to throw for over 300 yards against them.

The Titans bounced back from a bad loss to the Jaguars to upset the Baltimore Ravens in convincing fashion 26-10. Matt Hasselbeck and the offense looked much more lively, the veteran threw for over 350 yards and a touchdown. The defense played very well in the win as well, intercepting Joe Flacco two times, and holding Ray Rice to just 43 yards rushing.

The Titans looked like a much tougher team in Week 2. This could be the week that running back Chris Johnson breaks out, facing a weak Denver defense. Johnson has put on two subpar performances to start the season, but looked stronger last week than he did in Jacksonville. Denver’s victory wasn’t particularly impressive. They jumped out to a fast start, and then essentially hung on for dear life as the Bengals made their comeback attempt in the second half. If Hasselbeck can operate the offense as smoothly as he did last week, the Titans should win this game at home.

Pick: Tennessee

New York Jets @ Oakland

The Jets had little trouble disposing of the Jaguars last week, blowing out Jacksonville 32-3. The defense intercepted quarterback Luke McCown four times, were never seriously challenged by the Jags at any point in the game.

Oakland blew a 21-point lead, and then lost to the Bills in dramatic fashion last week in Buffalo. Jason Campbell was much stronger in his second start of the season, throwing for over 300 yards and two touchdowns. Darren McFadden followed up his 150 yard rushing performance from Week 1 with 143 total yards and two touchdowns, though he did lose a fumble that led to a Buffalo score.

Is this a trap game for the Jets? It certainly would seem like one. After starting 2-0, and blowing out an inferior team last week, the Jets now have to go out west to face a more challenging (though still inferior) opponent. It seems like a natural spot for a bit of a let down. However, the Jets know that they need every victory that they can get. They’ll be pressing to keep up with the Patriots all season, and now is not the time for them to let winnable games slip away.

Pick: New York

Kansas City @ San Diego

No team may be feeling worse about themselves after two weeks than the Chiefs. They’ve been outscored 89-10 through two weeks, the supposedly explosive offense has had no life, and has now lost Jamaal Charles for the season with a torn ACL. Quarterback Matt Cassel threw seven interceptions in 2010, he’s already thrown four this year.

The Chargers enter the game 1-1 after being overmatched by the Patriots in Week 2. This is their first division game of the season, and they’ll get a chance to stick it to the team that won their division last season.

As poorly as the Chiefs have played, it just doesn’t look like there is any hope for them in this game. The Chargers are coming off of a frustrating loss, and will take it all out on what looks like one of the worst teams in football.

Pick: San Diego

Baltimore @ St. Louis

After crushing their rivals the Steelers in Week 1, the Ravens came out completely flat in Week 2, and fell to the Titans in Tennessee. Joe Flacco and the offense couldn’t get any momentum going, and turned the ball over three times. Defensively, the Ravens were torched for over 350 yards by Matt Hasselbeck, giving up over 130 of those yards to Kenny Britt, and 99 more to Nate Washington.

The Rams have suffered through a pair of hard losses to start the season. Last week they lost on Monday night to the Giants in New York. Sam Bradford threw for over 300 yards, but got no support from his running game. Cadillac Williams got the start for Steven Jackson, and only gained 36 yards, and lost a fumble that resulted in a Giants touchdown.

The Rams have had to deal with a brutal schedule to start the season, and their streak of hard losses is likely to continue this week. The Ravens are in no position to let down after just doing so against the Titans last week. Even though the game is in St. Louis, look for the Ravens to get back on track, and the undermanned Rams won’t be able to keep up.

Pick: Baltimore

Green Bay @ Chicago

A rematch of last year’s NFC Championship game, and a critical game for the early standings in the NFC North. Green Bay had their hands full last week while battling rookie Cam Newton in Carolina. They managed to come out on top in the end, thanks in part to handful of interceptions thrown by the rookie, but it wasn’t the blowout win that many anticipated.

Chicago couldn’t get much from their offense in Week 2, and lost in New Orleans 30-16. Jay Cutler wasn’t sharp at all, and the defense was unable to slow down Brees and his weapons. The Bears did job limiting the Packers offense last season, and didn’t allow them to score anymore than 21 points in any of the three games played between the two teams. However, the Bears offense was only able to put up 20 points on the Packers once last season.

Green Bay suffered a bit of a let down last week offensively and defensively, both units didn’t perform as well as they were expected to against the Panthers. I think that changes this week against the Bears. I think the Packers defense will play a strong game, and frustrate Jay Cutler into mistakes. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and his full complement of weapons will too much for the Bears defense to account for, much like the Saints were a week ago.

Pick: Green Bay

Arizona @ Seattle

The Cardinals lost a tough game in Washington last week. Though the Redskins outplayed Arizona, Rex Grossman continued to breathe life into the Cardinals by turning the ball over deep in Cardinal territory. They had a chance to comeback and win late, but a turnover on the final drive ended those hopes.

Seattle has looked pretty bad so far. The offense has had no punch with new quarterback Tarvaris Jackson. The loss of receiver Sidney Rice to injury really dilutes the potency of their offense dramatically. Running back Marshawn Lynch hasn’t done anything to pick up the slack either. Seattle was shutout in Pittsburgh in Week 2.

I like the Cardinals in this game. Kevin Kolb performed fairly well against a tough Washington defense last week, throwing for 251 yards and two touchdowns. He’s gotten good support from his running game too, running back Chris Wells has rushed for over 90 yards in each of the first two games. The Cardinals will have too many weapons for the Seahawks to shutdown, and the abysmal Seattle offense won’t be able to keep pace.

Pick: Arizona

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Both teams avoided 0-2 starts with late come-from-behind victories. Atlanta came out on top in a shootout with the Eagles, thanks to strong performances from Matt Ryan, Michael Turner, and Julio Jones. Ryan threw for a career high four touchdowns, Jones made several key receptions, including one that kept a drive alive late in the game, and Turner ran for over 100 yards.

Tampa Bay trailed the Vikings by 17 points at halftime, but Josh Freeman and company rallied to win 24-20. It was a win that was very similar to how Tampa won a lot of their games a year ago.

I think Atlanta is the better of the two teams. The Falcons have a number of legitimate, explosive threats in their arsenal, while Tampa Bay is a scrappy team that often wins on heart alone. The problem with that style is that when they approach a team with far greater talent than their own, it overwhelms them. I expect that to be the case this time, Atlanta’s offensive talent will prove to be too much for the Bucs this week.

Pick: Atlanta

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

This is the type of game that will make the NFL consider enacting flex scheduling much earlier in the season. The Colts enter this game with almost no hope of taking down the Steelers, even though the game is in Indianapolis. Kerry Collins has done nothing to inspire even the slightest bit of confidence that he can save the season. This team couldn’t even summon enough strength to take out a weak Browns team at home last week after getting humiliated by the Texans on opening day. What chance do they have of overcoming the tough Steeler defense and outscoring Ben Roethlisberger’s offense?

Pick: Pittsburgh

Washington @ Dallas

The Redskins are off to a 2-0 start, but they’ve done little to convince me that they still won’t finish the year in fourth place in the division. They managed to pull off a victory over the Cardinals last week in spite of Rex Grossman trying his hardest to throw the game away. The veteran threw several interceptions deep in Arizona territory that took points off of the board for the Redskins, and could have thrown several more.

Tony Romo came back from a fractured rib and a punctured lung to lead the Cowboys to a comeback victory over San Francisco. He threw for over 300 yards and two scores in the win. His health remains a great concern for the Cowboys moving forward.

If Romo was completely healthy, I wouldn’t have any doubts about Dallas winning this game easily. Their defense is stronger than Arizona’s, and should be able to force Grossman into several mistakes during the game. But if Romo is hurting, the Redskins have a strong enough to defense to limit the Cowboys and keep the game close enough for it to go either way in the fourth quarter. I still like Dallas to win this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Redskins find a way to steal another game.

Pick: Dallas