A Look At Week 4 In The NFL

Last Week: 10-6

Overall: 32-16

Carolina @ Chicago

Cam Newton didn’t put up staggering statistics, but he found a way to guide his team to their first victory of the season, winning 16-10 over the Jaguars, throwing a 16-yard touchdown pass to Greg Olsen to complete the comeback. As if the rookie quarterback’s play through three weeks hasn’t been impressive enough, he’s done it while receiving almost no support from his running game. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart have been relatively quiet so far.

Chicago has been beaten up in the last two weeks by the top two teams in the NFC, getting blown out by the Saints in Week 2, and getting beat up at home by the Packers in Week 3. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been making mistakes in the last two weeks, and threw two interceptions against Green Bay. The Bears were unable to establish a running attack against the Packers, Cutler was the team’s leading rusher with 11 yards.

This is a must-win game for the Bears. After a couple of rough losses, this is the week for them to rebound and get back in the win column. The Chicago running attack should return in a big way this week, and the defense will make things difficult for the Panthers to win on the road.

Pick: Chicago

Buffalo @ Cincinnati

Buffalo has the world in a state of shock, coming from behind to defeat the Patriots 34-31, and they now sit by themselves on top of the division entering Week 4. While it was done in a bit of a sketchy fashion (how many times is Tom Brady going to throw four interceptions and cough up a 21-point lead?), its clear that the Bills are significantly improved. Ryan Fitzpatrick has nine touchdowns in three games, and running back Fred Jackson has been simply electric. What’s also impressive is that the Bills have come back from two holes of 18 and 21 points to earn their last two wins. Their defense (which has given up 69 points in the last two weeks) needs to improve for them to make the playoffs.

The Bengals generated only eight points against the 49ers, and lost their second straight game last week. Andy Dalton followed his 300-yard effort in Denver from Week 2 with a 157-yard, two interception performance against San Francisco. Receivers Jerome Simpson and A.J. Green each surpassed the 100-yard mark in Week 2, but the two combined for just 35 yards in Week 3.

The Bengals may be able to move the ball against the Bills defense a little better than they could against the 49ers, but can they won’t be able to contain the Buffalo offense. Fitzpatrick and company have scored over 30 points in all three games this season, and I believe they’ll score more than enough to beat the Bengals.

Pick: Buffalo

Tennessee @ Cleveland

The Titans won ugly at home in Week 3, topping the Broncos 17-14. Tennessee keeps waiting for running back Chris Johnson to break out and play like the electric running back that they know he is, but so far he’s been a major disappointment. He’s rushed for just 98 yards on 46 carries. This is the same running back who has ran for at least 1,200 yards in his first three seasons in the league, including a 2,008 yard season in 2009. The Titans also took a big blow last week, losing receiver Kenny Britt to a torn ACL. Britt was the team’s second best playmaker after Johnson, and by far their most explosive receiver.

The Browns have been really underwhelming through three weeks, yet they possess a 2-1 record. Last week they came from behind to win an ugly game at home over Miami 17-16. Colt McCoy threw for two touchdown passes in the win, including the game winner to Mohamed Massaquoi in the fourth quarter.

One of these weeks, Chris Johnson is going to break out for a big game. The Titans have one of top ranked defenses in all of football, and Matt Hasselbeck still threw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns last week without the presence of Britt for most of the game. I think their defense will make things hard for McCoy and Cleveland offense, and Tennessee wins their third straight.

Pick: Tennessee

Detroit @ Dallas

I’m not whether I should view the Lions win last week in Minnesota as a strong come from behind victory, or if I should simply believe that the Vikings were only interested in playing two quarters of football for the third straight week. In any case, the Lions have been very impressive through three weeks, and regardless of who it came against, coming back from a 20-point hole in one half is always impressive. Calvin Johnson should be looked at as a top-three receiver in the league along with Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson if he isn’t already.

I can’t give Tony Romo enough credit for his performance on Monday night. Playing with fractured ribs, a bumbling rookie center that almost cost them the game, and a depleted receiving corp, Romo delivered one of the strongest performances I’ve ever seen from him. Not many quarterbacks in the league can recover a botched snap and make a throw for 30-yards while also dealing with an all-out blitz. Though they didn’t score a touchdown, Romo showed great leadership qualities and the ability to find a way to win a tough game, both things that he has been criticized for before.

Great performance aside, Dallas still comes into the game off of a short week, and still bothered by injuries. Romo’s effort on Monday was enough to overcome a tough, yet overachieving Redskins team, but Dallas will need a lot more than field goals to keep up with the Lions. I like Detroit to go on the road and upset Dallas.

Pick: Detroit

Pittsburgh @ Houston

Pittsburgh narrowly escaped Indianapolis with a win on Sunday night. The Steelers didn’t take care of the Colts nearly as easily as many thought they would. Ben Roethlisberger still threw for over 300 yards, but he got no support from his running game. Rashard Mendenhall has just 148 yards through three games. Pittsburgh needs him to be the 1,200 yard back he was a year ago for them to contend.

Houston ended up on the wrong end of a shootout with the Saints last week. They led for most of the game, but saw their lead fade away as they surrendered 23 fourth quarter points to the Saints. A late turnover by quarterback Matt Schaub proved to be costly.

If Pittsburgh’s running game continues to perform this poorly, they’re going to have trouble defeating quality opponents. If the run game continues to fail, it will make things easier for Wade Phillips to get his defense to pressure Roethlisberger and limit the passing game.

Pick: Houston

New Orleans @ Jacksonville

Drew Brees and the Saints had to work some fourth quarter magic last week to come out on top at home against the Texans last week. He threw for 370 yards and three touchdowns to fuel the comeback. The Saints also made use of their strong running back trio last week, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, and Darren Sproles were all mixed into the attack, and combined for 101 yards and two touchdowns.

Blaine Gabbert made his first NFL start in Week 3, and put up 139 yards, a touchdown, and an interception in a 16-10 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 122 yards, and the Jaguars scored 10 points in the second quarter, but allowed the Panthers to score 11 unanswered points in the second half.

Not much of a chance for the Jaguars to take down the Saints. A lot of stars would need to align for such an upset to occur.

Pick: New Orleans

Minnesota @ Kansas City

To blow a double-digit halftime lead for the third time in three weeks is nothing short of astonishing. The Minnesota Vikings have accomplished that rare feat, after seeing a 20-point halftime lead disappear and turn into an overtime loss to the Lions. In the first and second quarters, it seems like a solid football team takes the field, but after halftime everything goes south.

At least the Vikings have treated their fans to some decent play this season, unlike the Kansas City Chiefs. Though to be fair, they fared far better than anyone expected them to in San Diego last week, and made it a competitive game, though they still lost 20-17.

One of these 0-3 games has to come away with a victory this week, and I have to believe it will be the Vikings. Maybe this is the week this team plays a full four quarters.

Pick: Minnesota

San Francisco @ Philadelphia

The 49ers improved to 2-1, winning one of the uglier games of Week 3, 13-8 over Cincinnati. Alex Smith eclipsed the 200 yard passing mark for the first time all season, but Frank Gore struggled to put up 47 yards on the ground, the third straight letdown performance from the star running back.

The Eagles came up small in a division game against the Giants last week. Failure to convert in the redzone, turnovers, and a massive amount of defensive lapses and mistakes doomed the Eagles as they fell to their rivals from New York 29-16. The good news is that Michael Vick will be able this week despite a hand contusion. They’ve got to correct a lot of their mistakes from the New York game, and its got to start with finding ways to get receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin more involved in the offense. Jackson has only four catches in the last two weeks and has been a total non-factor, while Maclin has been quiet through three weeks with the exception of his performance in Atlanta.

It’s a must-win situation for the Eagles. There’s no way this team can afford to fall to1-3, and even though the 49ers may be able to move the ball against a soft Eagles defense, I have to believe the Eagles win and win big in this game.

Pick: Philadelphia

Washington @ St. Louis

The Redskins missed a chance to go 3-0 when they fell to Dallas 18-16 last Monday night. Washington had their opportunities in the game, but they failed to take advantage of several redzone opportunities, and Rex Grossman was responsible for several bad turnovers.

The Rams lost their third in a row, getting blown out at home by the Baltimore Ravens 37-7. Not much has gone right for St. Louis so far. They’ve been overwhelmed by a difficult schedule, and they’ve been ravaged by injuries. This week they hope to get a big boost by the return of running back Steven Jackson, who hasn’t been seen since he ran for a 47-yard touchdown against the Eagles on Opening Day.

While I believe in the Redskins defense, I don’t believe in Rex Grossman. The last two weeks the veteran has committed four turnovers, has cost his team scoring chances, and has failed to capitalize on redzone opportunities. The Rams have battered and bruised through three weeks, but even at 0-3, they’re still very much alive in the NFC West race. They need this game, and they’ll be desperate for a win at home. Its always difficult for a team to go out across the country to the west coast and win, and especially when considering the circumstances, it’s a tough spot for the Redskins this week.

Pick: St. Louis

New York Giants @ Arizona

After being embarrassed by the Redskins on Opening Day, things have only gotten better for the Giants. They earned a tough win against the Rams in Week 2, and snapped a six game losing streak, and got a giant monkey off of their backs with their upset of the Eagles in Week 3. Eli Manning had his best game in some time, throwing four touchdown passes and no interceptions against a secondary that has three alleged Pro-Bowl caliber cornerbacks. The Giants defense also did a great job to shutdown Michael Vick and the Eagles offense. The pass rush, led by Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul got to Vick throughout the game, eventually knocking him out with a hand injury. They also forced three turnovers.

For the second straight week, the Cardinals committed costly turnovers that allowed a winnable game to slip away, falling 13-10 in Seattle. Kevin Kolb threw two costly interceptions, and didn’t have a strong game. Even on his touchdown pass, Kolb was running for his life from the pass rush and took a chance by throwing the ball up for grabs into traffic. Luckily for him, he has an amazing receiver in Larry Fitzgerald, who found a way to make the difficult reception.

The Giants seem to be getting stronger every week, and the win over the Eagles will do a lot to keep the momentum going in their favor. If their pass rush can get in Kolb’s face all day like they did to Vick, they’ll have no trouble forcing the fifth year quarterback into more turnovers.

Pick: New York

Atlanta @ Seattle

A week after coming up with a big win over the Eagles, the Falcons came out completely flat against Tampa Bay. The Falcons were sloppy from start to finish. Matt Ryan threw for over 300 yards, but also threw an interception and lost two fumbles. A week after rushing for over 100 yards against Philadelphia, Michael Turner was nowhere to be found, gaining just 20 yards on 11 carries.

Seattle took advantage of several Arizona turnovers, and hung on to defeat the Cardinals 13-10. They won despite underwhelming offensive performances across the board. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson only passed for 171 yards, 109 of those going to receiver Sidney Rice, who was finally able to play for the first time all season.

It’s a west coast trip, but it’s also a game the Falcons have to win. Seattle shouldn’t have any business playing a close game with Atlanta if the Falcons come out focused, and are able to eliminate the high number of mistakes they’ve been making this season.

Pick: Atlanta

Denver @ Green Bay

As another week goes by in Denver, the cries for Tim Tebow seem to get louder and louder. The Broncos lost another close game, 17-14 in Tennessee last week. The Denver offense just isn’t dangerous or explosive right now. Orton is throwing to a bunch of average receivers, and the team isn’t getting anything from former first-round pick Knowshon Moreno or veteran Willis McGahee.

The Packers took care of business last week, pushing the Bears aside 27-14. Aaron Rodgers threw for another three touchdown passes, and the Green Bay defense played their first great game of the year, forcing Jay Cutler into two interceptions, and limiting the Bears to just 13 rushing yards on the day.

Expect Denver to be completely overwhelmed in this game. They’re in way over their heads. They won’t be able to slow down Rodgers and the Packer offense, and they certainly don’t have the offense they need to make it interesting either.

Pick: Green Bay

New England @ Oakland

The Patriots are recovering from a shocking loss to the Buffalo Bills last week. They jumped out to a 21-point lead, but then collapsed while Buffalo made a furious comeback. Tom Brady threw four interceptions to help fuel the implosion. Now the Patriots will have travel out west to face the Oakland Raiders.

Oakland is coming off a significant upset of its own, taking down the New York Jets 34-24. Darren McFadden continues to establish himself as one of the league’s top running backs. He put up 171 yards and two touchdowns on the Jets. If there’s one concerning element about the Raiders, it’s there lack of a passing attack. For the second time in three weeks, Jason Campbell threw for under 200 yards.

Through three weeks, the Raiders also seem to be a team on the rise. They’ve played three strong games, and hold a 2-1 record. Their only loss has come to the Bills, in the dramatic shootout from Week 2. Its still not clear just how good they really are, but I don’t think they’re ready for the storm that’s coming their way on Sunday. The Patriots have got to be frustrated and embarrassed at how they let the game against Buffalo slip away. They’ll be much more focused this week, and I believe they beat the Raiders without much difficulty.

Pick: New England

Miami @ San Diego

Only three weeks into the season, and Miami is already out of the playoff picture. Coming out flat in a desperate situation against the Browns was inexcusable, and it could mean the beginning of the end for head coach Tony Sparano. Chad Henne was simply average for the second straight week (255 yards, one touchdown, one interception), and their “major” offseason acquisition, Reggie Bush, continues to be a major disappointment, gaining 13 yards on 10 carries, fumbling twice, losing one of them.

The Chargers came out a little flat themselves last week, and nearly let their game against the Chiefs slip away. Phillip Rivers played a poor game, throwing two interceptions and no touchdowns, but running back Ryan Matthews was able to step up and rush for 98 yards and two scores. Overall though, it was a disturbing effort by the Chargers. The Chiefs had been getting blown away through the first two weeks. San Diego themselves were coming off of a bitter loss in New England. They learned the hard way last season about how important it is to not play down to the poor levels of opponents, and it was a game that they should have won going away.

With that in mind, I think this game will be a fairly close one. The Dolphins are in quite a hole, but it’s still too early for them to completely throw in the towel. Miami has enough talent to put it altogether and bite an unsuspecting team, though they rarely are able to put it altogether. I still expect the Chargers to win, but more so because of Miami’s inconsistencies.

Pick: San Diego

New York Jets @ Baltimore

Last week’s game against the Raiders certainly had all of the makings of a trap game for the Jets. The Jets didn’t have an answer for Darren McFadden and the Oakland running game, and a pair of costly turnovers gave the Raiders the extra boost they needed to finish the job. The Jets lost an opportunity to gain some ground on New England, but instead sit at 2-1, tied with the Patriots and behind the Bills in the division.

The Ravens picked themselves up from a bad loss to the Titans, and blew away the Rams in Week 3 without much difficulty. Joe Flacco threw three touchdown passes, all to Torrey Smith, and the Baltimore defense sacked Sam Bradford five times. It was a good recovery for Baltimore after being upset by the Titans in Week 2.

The Jets were a pretty a good team last season coming off of losses. They went 3-1 last the season in the following week after a losing effort. Mark Sanchez has put up some decent numbers (two touchdowns in every game, 300 yard efforts in two of three weeks) and is benefitting greatly from the addition of Plaxico Burress. The Jets should be able to limit what Joe Flacco can do through the air, and if the Jets can sure up their run defense, I like New York in this game.

Pick: New York

Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay

The Colts came up with an unexpected effort last week, showing a little life (though still losing) against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Curtis Painter got an opportunity to run the Colt offense when veteran Kerry Collins was knocked out the game with a concussion, and led his team on an 80-yard drive to tie the game with two minutes remaining. He’ll get the start on Monday night.

Tampa Bay won ugly against the Falcons in Week 3. Josh Freeman didn’t have a good game, throwing for just 180 yards and two interceptions, but his defense forced Matt Ryan into three turnovers, which allowed the Bucs to build a 13-point lead by the fourth quarter. They allowed the Falcons to score 10 unanswered points at the end of the game, but ultimately were able to hang on for their second win of the season.

This will be an interesting game to watch. With Painter under center, the Colts may have some new life. Veterans on the team like receiver Reggie Wayne weren’t happy that the organization handed the job to Kerry Collins, pushing aside a player who had been in the system for several years. Now he’ll get his chance to be the guy. Tampa Bay hasn’t been very impressive so far, but they have the defense the force the first-time starter Painter into mistakes. I think Freeman and the Bucs find a way to win another close game.

Pick: Tampa Bay