A Look At Week 5 In The NFL

Last Week: 11-5

Overall: 43-21

Week 4 Prophecies

“This is a must-win game for the Bears. After a couple of rough losses, this is the week for them to rebound and get back in the win column. The Chicago running attack should return in a big way this week”

Matt Forte rushed for 205 yards to lead the Bears to victory over Carolina.

“If Pittsburgh’s running game continues to perform this poorly, they’re going to have trouble defeating quality opponents. If the run game continues to fail, it will make things easier for Wade Phillips to get his defense to pressure Roethlisberger and limit the passing game.”

Pittsburgh running attack continued to struggle, and the Texans defense held Roethlisberger to just 206 passing yards.

“Expect Denver to be completely overwhelmed in this game. They’re in way over their heads. They won’t be able to slow down Rodgers and the Packer offense, and they certainly don’t have the offense they need to make it interesting either.”

Aaron Rodgers threw for over 400 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout victory.

Week 4 Lies

“Mark Sanchez has put up some decent numbers (two touchdowns in every game, 300 yard efforts in two of three weeks) and is benefitting greatly from the addition of Plaxico Burress. The Jets should be able to limit what Joe Flacco can do through the air, and if the Jets can sure up their run defense, I like New York in this game.”

Though the Jets defense did indeed limit Flacco, Sanchez committed four turnovers to fuel his team’s loss.

“There’s no way this team can afford to fall to1-3, and even though the 49ers may be able to move the ball against a soft Eagles defense, I have to believe the Eagles win and win big in this game.”

We all know what happened.

Week 5 Picks

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh

The Titans have put together a nice three-game winning streak, taking down the Ravens, Broncos and Browns. After a slow start in Week 1, Matt Hasselbeck has done a good job leading the offense, throwing for over 750 yards and six touchdowns. Running back Chris Johnson turned in his best effort of the season, rushing for 101 yards against the Browns, a welcome sight for Titan fans.

The Steelers defense held the Texans to just 17 points, but their offense let them down. Once again, the Pittsburgh rushing attack was MIA, Issac Redman was the team’s leading rusher in Week 4 with 40 yards. To make matters worse, Ben Roethlisberger also played a poor game, passing for just 206 yards and throwing an interception. The result was a sluggish offensive effort that only generated 10 points.

Roethlisberger also suffered a foot injury in the game, but it isn’t expected to keep him out of action. At 2-2, the Steelers are falling behind the Baltimore Ravens in the division. This is an important game for them not just because of where they stand in the division, but they may need a win here to give them the edge with the Titans in a possible tiebreaking situation later in the year. I think it’s going to be hard for Hasselbeck to succeed against the Steeler defense, and with Roethlisberger playing I believe the Steelers rebound to win this game at home.

Pick: Pittsburgh

Cincinnati @ Jacksonville

Andy Dalton led the Bengals in an impressive second half rally, capped by 10 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to take down the previously undefeated Bills 23-20. Dalton threw for nearly 300 yards, threw for one touchdown, and ran for another. He’s kept the Bengals competitive in their four games, leading them on second half rallies in three games, completing a come-from-behind victory in two of them. The Bengal defense did a great job keeping an explosive Bills offensive under wraps. Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for under 200 yards, and Fred Jackson was held to just 66 yards rushing.

The Jaguars have already turned things over to rookie Blaine Gabbert, and are now watching him go through his growing pains. Last week the rookie completed just 16 of 42 passes for 196 yards with a touchdown and an interception against the Saints. Maurice Jones-Drew is the only legitimate offensive threat in the Jacksonville arsenal right now, rushing for 391 yards in four games, though he only has one rushing touchdown so far.

In a battle of rookie starters, clearly Dalton is farther along in his development than Gabbert. Dalton has made mistakes, but he’s also found ways to win some games. Gabbert is still very raw, and his team is going to struggle putting up points for awhile.

Pick: Cincinnati

Seattle @ New York Giants

Want to see the definition of the word fluke? Look at Tarvaris Jackson’s stat line from last week. 319 yards and three touchdowns. He’s only going to accomplish similar feats so many more times in his career. A rare superhuman effort from Jackson allowed the Seahawks to stay competitive against the Atlanta Falcons. However, he still managed to throw two interceptions, and running back Marshawn Lynch contributed only 24 rushing yards, which was enough for their team to fall short against Atlanta in a 30-28 loss. It is clear that the presence of receiver Sidney Rice makes Jackson much more effective. In two games Rice has caught 11 passes for 188 yards and a touchdown.

The Giants earned a tough victory out west against the Cardinals in Week 4. The New York defense gave up 138 yards and three rushing touchdowns to Chris Wells, and the Giants themselves only got 57 yards from their running backs combined. However, Eli Manning put together another strong game, throwing for over 300 yards and two late touchdown passes to give his team the win. Receivers Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz combined for 260 receiving yards.

I have to believe the Giants win this game. There’s nowhere to go but down for Tarvaris Jackson coming off of one of the better performances of his career, and now traveling out west to take on a superior Giants team. As long as the Giants don’t take this team lightly, they’ll win easily.

Pick: Giants

Arizona @ Minnesota

Another week, another frustrating loss for Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals. They’ve now lost three straight games in the fourth quarter that have been decided by less than a touchdown. Kolb himself hasn’t been particularly impressive in the last two games, throwing just one touchdown and three interceptions. Last week Chris Wells was the focal point of the Arizona attack, rushing for 138 yards and three touchdowns.

Kolb will face his old teammate, Donovan McNabb, who is having problems of his own in Minnesota. McNabb and the Vikings fell to 0-4, losing 22-17 to the unimpressive Kansas City Chiefs. The Vikings are just finding ways to lose every week. McNabb hasn’t done much to improve the Minnesota passing attack, with just 680 yards and four touchdowns in four games. The Viking defense has also fallen off significantly from what it was back in 2009.

I think this game means much more to Arizona than it does to Minnesota. The Cardinals are 1-3, but in the NFC West that’s not an impossible hole to climb out of. They’ve had a number of positive elements (such as the performances of Chris Wells) to build off of, but Kolb must step up and prove he is worth the price that the Cardinals paid for him. On the other side, with every passing week, the Vikings become a step closer towards being completely dead in the water. They’re facing impossible odds to make the playoffs at 0-4, and haven’t even begun division play yet (against three very good teams in the Bears, Lions, and Packers). There’s already been talk of pulling the plug on the McNabb experiment, it’s just not a good situation for the Vikings right now.

Pick: Arizona

Philadelphia @ Buffalo

The loss to San Francisco at home after a 20-3 halftime lead easily ranks among the greatest regular season disasters in the Andy Reid era. It’s truly unbelievable that the Eagles allowed a game they desperately needed to get away, and now there is serious doubt about this team’s ability to make the playoffs with such a poor defense, and consistent failures in the redzone on offense.

The Bills jumped out to a 20-3 lead in Cincinnati last week, but watched that lead evaporate with a second half collapse to lose 23-20 on a last second field goal to Mike Nugent. Ryan Fitzpatrick was held without a touchdown for the first time all season, and Fred Jackson and the running game wasn’t as explosive as it had been.

The Bills shouldn’t have much trouble generating offense this week. The Eagles defense has proved through four weeks that they can’t stop anyone, after allowing the likes of a terrible quarterback like Alex Smith and a hobbled running back in Frank Gore gash them for big yardage. Michael Vick and the Eagles offense generated over 500 yards last week, but failed miserably in the redzone. They’ll keep struggling to find success if they keep calling absurd plays (such as carries to the fullback and running back pass options) on the goalline. In spite of how miserable the Eagles have performed through the last three weeks, if this team is in anyway the Super Bowl contender that many envisioned them as, I have to believe they find a way to win this game. If they don’t, we could truly be looking at the beginning of the end of the Andy Reid era.

Pick: Philadelphia

New Orleans @ Carolina

The Saints didn’t blow the Jaguars away last week, but they won easily enough 23-10 on the road. Drew Brees threw for 351 yards and a touchdown, but turned the ball over twice. The three-headed running back attack of Thomas, Ingram, and Sproles combined for 166 yards on the ground, and tight end Jimmy Graham had a career day with 10 catches for 132 yards and a touchdown.

The Saints will have their hands full on Sunday, as they go out to visit rookie sensation Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers. Newton and the Panthers are 1-3, but they have been a tough out in every loss. Last week they fought back from a 24-10 deficit to pull to within one point of the Chicago Bears, but the Bears managed to hang on for the victory. The Panthers have proven that they’re not a team to be taken lightly, and though they’ll still have to deal with growing pains from Newton, they’re clearly a team on the rise.

Expect another tough fight from the Panthers, but ultimately the Saints will overwhelm a banged up Panthers defense.

Pick: New Orleans

Kansas City @ Indianapolis

The Chiefs picked up their first win of the season, taking down the Vikings 22-17 at home in Week 4. Matt Cassel came up with his best performance of the season, throwing for a season high 260 yards and a touchdown. It was the first game this season that the former Patriot had not thrown an interception. After suffering a pair of blowouts in the first two weeks, the Chiefs have played significantly better in the last two weeks. They’re still sorely missing the presence of running back Jamaal Charles. Thomas Jones is beginning to show his age, and Dexter McCluster doesn’t seem to be cut out to be a featured back.

Like the Chiefs, the Colts have played much better in the last two weeks. Though they lost 24-17 in Tampa Bay on Monday night, they got a very encouraging performance from quarterback Curtis Painter, who passed for 280 yards and two touchdowns. The Colts played with much more energy with Painter under center than they did for Kerry Collins.

I think this is the week for the Colts to win their first of the season. They’ve gotten a couple of positive performances from Painter, and if the veterans on that team have their heads in the game again, this could be a team that becomes a tough out as the season goes on. For now though, they’re facing a Chiefs team that may not be as bad as they looked in the first two games, but a team that still has plenty of problems.

Pick: Indianapolis

Oakland @ Houston

The Raiders were no match for a frustrated Patriots team last week, and were completely overwhelmed by a focused Tom Brady and his weapons. Quarterback Jason Campbell threw for over 300 yards, but also threw two interceptions in the loss. Darren McFadden was held to just 75 yards on the ground.

The Texans bounced back from a heartbreaking loss to the Saints, and earned a tough victory at home over the Steelers, 17-10. It was a defensive struggle, and Matt Schaub was limited to just 138 passing yards. Arian Foster had his first big game of the season, picking up 155 yards and a touchdown. The Wade Phillips-led defense was able to frustrate the Steelers, and limit them on the ground and in the air.

The bad news for Houston is that they’ll be without star receiver Andre Johnson for at least the next three weeks, taking away their best vertical threat. The good news is that their defense looks to be the strongest in franchise history under the guidance of Phillips. With the exception of their game against the Saints, the Texans have performed very well defensively in the first quarter of the season. Without Andre Johnson, it’s going to be that much more important that the defense continues its high level play. They should be able to do that this week against a mistake-prone quarterback like Campbell.

Pick: Houston

Tampa Bay @ San Francisco

The Bucs had to pull another come-from-behind victory of their hats in order to get by Curtis Painter and the Colts on Monday night. Give this team credit, they never win pretty, but they do constantly find ways to win. Josh Freeman rallied his team for 14 unanswered points in the second half, and LeGarrette Blount ran for 127 yards and a touchdown to get Tampa to 3-1.

Speaking of finding ways to win, the 49ers pulled off a major upset of the Philadelphia Eagles, rallying from a 20-3 hole at halftime to win 24-23. Though Alex Smith and the 49er offense looked incredibly efficient in the second half, their success had less to do with them and more to do with the ineptness of the Eagles defense.

Expect Smith and the 49er offense to come back down to Earth now that they’ll face be facing a competent defense again. Freeman and the Bucs outclass the 49ers in terms of talent, and I believe they’ll find another way to pull off a victory on the road.

Pick: Tampa Bay

San Diego @ Denver

The Chargers knocked Miami quarterback Chad Henne out of the game early last week, and cruised to a fairly easy 26-16 win. Phillip Rivers threw for over 300 yards and a touchdown, and the San Diego defense forced a couple of turnovers, and were never seriously challenged by the Dolphins.

The Broncos were doomed to failure last week, tasked with going out to Green Bay and facing the most complete team in the league. The result was a 49-23 blowout. Denver’s secondary gave up over 400 yards passing, and Kyle Orton made matters worse by throwing three interceptions.

The Chargers have avoided letdowns in the last two weeks, but they haven’t exactly blown away their competition. They let the Chiefs hang around for the entire game in Week 3, and even with Miami’s quarterback knocked out early, they still weren’t able to completely blow them out either. San Diego has had a terrible tendency to play down to their opponents in recent years, and their last two performances have raised some red flags. That said, I don’t see Denver beating them on Sunday. Their defense just can’t stop anyone.

Pick: San Diego

New York Jets @ New England

Mark Sanchez came up with one of his worst games in recent memory as the Jets fell in Baltimore 34-17. He completed just 11 of 35 passes, threw an interception, and lost three fumbles. It was truly a disturbing performance from the third-year quarterback. The good news was that the Jet defense played a very good game, keeping the Ravens to under 250 yards of total offense, and forced several turnovers, a strong rebound from their poor effort two weeks ago in Oakland.

Tom Brady and company bounced back from a shocking loss to the Buffalo Bills in Week 3 by going on the road and pounding the Raiders 31-19. Brady connected with receiver Wes Welker nine times for 158 yards and a touchdown. Running backs Stevan Ridley and BenJarvus Green-Ellis both ran for over 75 yards.

In this battle between division rivals, the series has gone back and forth over the past few years. The Jets won the most recent meeting the playoffs of last January, 28-21. The Jets have had some struggles with consistency this season, while the Patriots have looked strong every week, with the exception of their hiccup in Buffalo. I think Brady and the Pats come out with revenge on their minds for the playoff loss last season, and they’ll still have a chip on their shoulders from the Buffalo loss.

Pick: New England

Green Bay @ Atlanta

The Packers have looked unstoppable through four weeks. Aaron Rodgers is putting up staggering numbers, throwing for an average of over 300 yards and three touchdowns through four games, while turning the ball over only twice. Though their defense hasn’t been as effective as they had hoped though. Linebacker Clay Matthews is off to a slow start, and with only one sack in four games, he just hasn’t been the force he was last season.

Atlanta has been a disappointment so far. They currently sit at 2-2, but they haven’t been overwhelming anyone. Last week they were given all they could handle by Tarvaris Jackson and the Seattle Seahawks. The Falcons allowed the much maligned quarterback Jackson to throw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns. Matt Ryan has only thrown for six touchdowns in four weeks, and has also committed seven turnovers. There’s still plenty of reason for optimism about the Falcons, but they aren’t playing very well right now.

It’s a possible revenge game for the Falcons, who will get a chance to make up for their disappointing effort against the Packers last year in the playoffs, a game they lost at home. The Packers defense should be weak enough for Ryan and the Atlanta offense to put up points, but the Falcons defense won’t have an answer for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay aerial attack.

Pick: Green Bay

Chicago @ Detroit

Chicago survived a tough battle with the Carolina Panthers last week, winning by a narrow 34-29 margin. After a quiet game against the Packers, running back Matt Forte came back with a superb game, rushing for 205 yards and a touchdown. His great effort helped offset a poor performance by quarterback Jay Cutler, who threw for just 102 yards and an interception.

For two straight weeks, the Lions have pulled off impressive comebacks on the road. They trailed by 20 points in Minnesota in Week 3 and were behind by as many as 24 in Dallas, but managed to overcome both deficits. Matt Stafford has played very well, but its clear that Calvin Johnson is the engine that makes the Detroit offense go. He’s caught eight touchdowns through four weeks, averaging two a game, and makes all kinds of spectacular catches with defenders draped all over him.

The Lions are in a good position to get to 5-0. The offense is clicking on all cylinders, and they’ve got to be feeling really good about themselves after what they’ve had to overcome in the last few weeks to remain undefeated. They may have trouble stopping Matt Forte, but Jay Cutler isn’t consistent enough to be relied on to lead the Bears on enough scoring drives to stay with the Lions.

Pick: Detroit