NFL Projections: The NFC North

The NFC North is another one of the deeper divisions in football. The North houses one of the elite teams in the league in the Green Bay Packers, a pair of Wild Card candidates in the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears, and the Minnesota Vikings playing the role of a punching bag at the bottom.

Minnesota Vikings

The 2011 Vikings finished the year 4-12, the worst season in franchise history. The good news is that once you hit rock bottom, usually there’s nowhere to go but up. The bad news is that the 2012 team won’t be vastly improved from last year’s model, albeit with a couple of notable differences.

The first of these differences is that Christian Ponder will be the starter from the beginning of the year, and should improve with the experience he gained last season. Unfortunately, Ponder didn’t give Minnesota many flashes of brilliance during his 10 starts a year ago. Head coach Leslie Frazier will be coaching for his job, so if Ponder doesn’t take a dramatic step forward fairly early in the year, the Vikings could easily turn things over to either Joe Webb or Sage Rosenfels.

Adrian Peterson suffered an ACL injury towards the end of 2011, and it’s hard to imagine him returning as the same dominant runner he has been in the past. Few running backs return to top form after sustaining such an injury, especially when they’ve taken as much of a physical toll as Peterson has. Toby Gerhart is a nice change-of-pace runner who is capable of spelling Peterson when he needs a break.

The Vikings badly needed to upgrade their wide receiver talent, but the best they could do was to sign former Bengal Jerome Simpson. Percy Harvin is still the team’s most dynamic playmaker at the position, but he’s far from a true number-one threat, and is best suited for a complimentary role.

Even more unimpressive than the Vikings’ offense is their woeful defense. They lost one of their leaders when linebacker E.J. Henderson left through free agency. Jarad Allen remains the face of the unit, and is coming off of one his best seasons, but he’s the lone bright spot. Defensive tackle Kevin Williams is still a decent run defender, but isn’t the force he was a couple of years ago. Antonie Winfield provides the secondary with smart, veteran leadership, but those traits alone can only go so far. The team spent their second first-round pick and third round pick on safety Harrison Smith and cornerback Josh Robinson to try and inject some fresh young talent into the defensive backfield.

This looks like a lost season for the Vikings. With Leslie Frazier looking like a lame duck, and no young nucleus to build around or be optimistic about, it looks to me as though Minnesota will simply go through the motions in 2012. The Frazier regime’s biggest mistake will prove to be spending last year’s top draft pick on Christian Ponder. They knew the 2011 draft class was weak when it came to quarterbacks, but they spent their high draft pick on the position anyway just to fill a need, even though the talent they used it on wasn’t ideal, and now they pay the price for that blunder. They’ll finish with one of the worst records in the league, fire Frazier, blow up the roster, and the new regime will spent their inevitably high first-round pick on a quarterback prospect that actually has a chance to develop into a franchise quarterback.

Projected Finish: 3-13, 4th place.

Detroit Lions

After years of mediocrity the Lions finally put together a solid team in 2011, and broke through for a solid 10-win season, and their first playoff appearance in years. But that they’ve finally enjoyed some success, what will the young Lions do for an encore now that there are expectations in Detroit?

Matt Stafford put together an excellent season, throwing for over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns. His interception total (16) isn’t awful, but it’s still something that he would do well to cut down on. He’s developed an excellent rapport with Calvin Johnson, who many consider to be the top receiver in football. Johnson caught 96 balls for over 1,600 yards and 16 touchdowns. He’s an absolute nightmare for opposing cornerbacks, and is one of the rare talents in the NFL that have fully realized their potential.

As special as the Stafford-Johnson connection is, the Detroit offense is only in top form when running back Jahvid Best is healthy. Unfortunately, the former first-round pick will begin the year on the PUP list. If he returns completely healthy, he’ll be the final key that pushes the Lion offense to the next level. Until then, the team will be forced to split carries between unproven Mikel Leshoure and dependable veteran Kevin Smith.

Life would be much easier for Stafford and the offense if they could get a little more from their defense in 2012. The front-seven of the Detroit defense is in great shape. Ndamakong Suh is a dominate force, and he is complimented by a pair of solid pass rushers in Cliff Avril and Kyle Vanden Bosch. The team also hopes for a breakout season from Nick Fairley. Stephen Tulloch, an excellent middle linebacker, anchors the linebackers and leads the defense.

The problem with the defensive unit is the secondary. The Lions were torched in coverage throughout 2011, and did little to address the issue in the off-season. They spent a third-round pick on cornerback Dwight Bentley, but he’s the only significant newcomer. Three of the four starters from last season return.

The Lions are getting closer to becoming one of the dominant teams in the NFC, but some lingering issues are still in their way. As electric as the offense is, the defense needs to great as well for this team to seriously contend. They can outscore the majority of teams in the league, but can’t keep up with Green Bay, New Orleans, and the other super powers of the league. Elite defenses like San Francisco also gave them fits in 2011. Playing in a very competitive division also hurts their playoff chances, and they’ve got a difficult schedule in the second half of the year with games against Chicago, Atlanta, Houston, and two games against the Packers. This team’s time will come, but 2012 isn’t the year.

Projected Finish: 9-7, 3rd place

Chicago Bears

If ever a team could use the injury bug as an excuse for a disappointing finish, it was the 2011 Chicago Bears. The team finished the season with stars Jay Cutler and Matt Forte out of action, and limped to an 8-8 finish after beginning the year 7-3. Now the Bears are healthy again, and they’ve added a great deal of depth to their team in hopes of finally making a return to the playoffs.

Cutler has made great strides since his horrid first year in Chicago. He’s dramatically cut down on his turnovers, and is a much better game-manager than he’s ever been in the past. He’s now reunited with his old target from Denver, Brandon Marshall. Marshall and Cutler have enjoyed their best years together when they were Broncos, and should have no trouble rekindling their old magic. The Bears have also drafted Alshon Jeffrey in the second-round, and expect him to start right away.

Matt Forte, the other big piece of this offense, is healthy again and primed for another big season. Forte does everything well, and doesn’t have any glaring holes in his game. He’s one of the best all-around running backs in football, and has been the engine of the Chicago offense. However, the Pro Bowler won’t be asked to shoulder as heavy a load as he’s had to in the past. The presence of Brandon Marshall means that the Bears will lean more heavily on the passing attack, and the team also signed a very talented running back in Michael Bush, who will take some touches away from Forte.

The Chicago defense has been solid over the years, but this group’s age is a concern. The major players on this unit (Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, Lance Briggs) have all been in the league for over a decade, and their age will show sooner rather than later. Urlacher himself has undergone multiple medical procedures in the off-season in order for him to continue his career. The team tried add some youth to the squad by drafting defensive end Shea McClellin in the first-round, and safety Brandon Hardin in the third.

The Bears are ready to make a run this year. Its taken a couple of years, but they’ve finally got Jay Cutler in a very comfortable position. He’s got a firm grasp of the system, he’s learned to cut down on his turnovers, and now he’s got a number-one receiver that he has instant chemistry with. Matt Forte and Michael Bush will make for an excellent running back tandem, and the addition of Brandon Marshall give this offense a chance to be both explosive and efficient. If the aging stars on the defensive side of the ball can hold up and do their part for one more year, this team will be a strong Wild Card in 2012.

Projected Finish: 11-5, 2nd place

Green Bay Packers

Last year, the Packers stormed through the regular season with a 15-1 record. They dominated almost every team they played, overwhelming them with a deep group of offensive weapons. And yet in spite of all that they accomplished in the first 16 games, it all went for not as the team collapsed in a miserable let down at home against the New York Giants. Green Bay now looks to forget about their embarrassing playoff failure, and take care of some unfinished business in 2012.

Aaron Rodgers is brilliant. He put up a season for the ages in 2011, throwing an incredible touchdown-to-interception ratio of 45-6. Few teams were able to come up with answers to slow Rodgers down, as he was able to move the ball almost at will for the majority of the season. The depth in his receiving corp only rivals New England. Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are elite targets, and James Jones, Donald Driver, and Randall Cobb make for excellent role players. He’s also got a top tight end in Jermichael Finley.

The passing attack is what makes the Packers successful, and it covers up a lot of the problems on this football team. They’ve still got no running game. Ryan Grant was not re-signed, and the team’s best option may be veteran Cedric Benson who was unsigned until about a week ago.

The Packer defense is also a major weak spot. The secondary was torched all season long, setting a league record for the most passing yards allowed in a single season. Charles Woodson is showing his age, and 2011 playoff heroes Tramon Williams and Sam Shields played very poorly last year.

Many of the other veterans on this unit disappointed last year as well. Clay Matthews also had a down year, and saw his sack total from from 13.5 in 2010 to just six last year. A.J. Hawk signed a big contract extension before the lockout, but returned to have a poor season, and was burned regularly in coverage. Defensive tackle B.J. Raji was a force two years ago, but his play dropped off as well. The Packers spent their top draft pick on linebacker Nick Perry, who they hope will improve their situation.

The deficiencies of this Packer team are a little troubling, and it will be very hard for them to enjoy another 15-win season. That being said, the impact that Rodgers and his passing offense has on this team cannot be overstated. Assuming that the star quarterback is able to keep up his high level of play, and assuming that some of the defensive veterans are able to bounce back from down years, this team is still the best in the NFC. They aren’t invincible, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a situation in which you feel comfortable betting against the odds of Aaron Rodgers on Sundays.

Projected Finish: 13-3, 1st place