It is usually around this time of year that casual hockey fans begin asking me what my expectations are for the Philadelphia Flyers, both in training camp and for the season.
Lately though, all anybody wants to know is, “Will there be another lockout?”
Probably?
After presenting their respective proposals for a new collective bargaining agreement, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and NHLPA Executive Director Donald Fehr have reached an impasse.
It does not appear that either individual is prepared to make substantial monetary concessions, although the players have at least indicated they are willing to take some form of a paycut.
Philosophically, the center of the dispute is whether or not the players or the wealthier owners should be responsible for assisting the financial success of the smaller market teams.
Realistically, it’s just about money. Always has been and, when it comes to unionized labor, always will be.
In reflecting on the NHL labor talks on Labor Day, one has to wonder what the long-term health of the league will be should the 2012-13 season be shortened by any substantial margin.
It’s no big secret that the American middle class isn’t doing so well. Today’s economic climate is not nearly as stable as it was in 2005 (which wasn’t exactly the ‘best of times’ either), when the NHL began the steady climb back to national relevancy following the previous lockout.
Some members of the media have warped a recent comment by Bettman- “We recovered well last time because we have the world’s greatest fans”- by suggesting the statement was meant to imply that the NHL looked at the fans as doormats.
That argument is tenuous at best, but the simpler truth is that counting on the “world’s greatest fans” to return after another lockout is risky.
For original six teams and a handful of franchises (including the Flyers), the majority of fans will be back. According to Canadian Business, the NHL experienced higher attendance levels after the previous two lockouts, including a 2.4% overall increase in 2005-06.
“If you look at most sports strikes, you really do see a big bounceback right away,” says Victor Matheson, an economics professor at the College of the Holy Cross in Massachusetts. “You don’t really have any lingering resentment on behalf of the fans.”
What about the small market teams, though? That same post indicates that, following the last lockout, a number of franchises saw sizable drops in attendance. St. Louis in particular saw over a 23% drop in attendance.
The redistribution of wealth at the center of the CBA debate will ultimately be in vain if casual hockey fans decide to no longer invest their time and, “more importantly,” money into their local team.
The franchise most distressed- the Phoenix Coyotes- could have used their recent playoff success as a catalyst for revitalization. Instead, the team remains unsold while the specter of a lockout looms.
Whenever I wonder privately about how casual fans will react, I think back to the final blog post by Ryan of Flyers Goal Scored By earlier this year. Ryan decided to call it quits after following the Flyers closely beginning with the 2007-08 season.
“The truth is that I’m tired of caring this much, and Billy Beane was right about losing the last game of the season. I’ll be there rooting for the Flyers in my own way, but no longer climbing into bed on a Thursday night thinking, ‘why did I just waste 3 hours.’ No longer staying in on a beautiful Saturday afternoon because ‘the boys are on.’ It’s not that I don’t have the time, it’s not that I don’t have the energy. It’s that the opportunity cost is too high when I can read the box score and watch the highlights any time I want.”
I don’t think it’s a stretch to think other fans may feel similarly. Why continue to spend hard earned money on tickets (whose prices did not go down after the last lockout) and merchandise that will likely eat a larger and larger percentage of the middle class’ dwindling income?
As long as the NHL and the NHLPA continue to argue over who gets what percentage of hockey-related-revenue, there is a risk of both the revenue pool and the number of teams operating in the league contracting in the near future.
A pretty disgusting face on Bettman above. Would I trust that guy? ….. Nah, not in a heartbeat! NHL needs to dump several teams/markets; tough on the locals but necessary for health of league… and both sides need to realize that.