Now that we've had time to let all the Roy Halladay trade speculation sink in, let's look at the situation logically. First off, it isn't set in stone that Halladay will be traded nor is it set in stone that the Phils will trade for him.
A handful of teams have expressed interest in the ace and according to sources the price will be very steep, maybe to steep for some teams.
Is it worth trading away a large chunk of your future for what could turn out to be a year and a half rental? Will Halladay accept a trade to a team only if he's signed to an extension?
There area many factors to analyze before pulling the trigger on a deal of this magnitude..
More then likely the Jays will be asking for maybe three top prospects and major league ready player. As I'm typing this Pedro Martinez is on his way to Philadelphia to take a physical.
The speculation has been that Martinez would replace J.A Happ in the rotation, as Happ would be part of a package sent to Toronto for Halladay. However, GM Ruben Amaro Jr. stated he wasn't looking to subtract from the Major League roster. So that would mean Happ is not on the table? Also, the Jays will be trying to unload some payroll. So a team that wants Halladay may have to take on the huge contracts of either Alex Rios or Vernon Wells. So does this mean that Jayson Werth would have to be included in a deal for Halladay as well?
Now the prospects, it's hard to say who the Jays would want. Teams don't always value other teams prospects the same you know. Kyle Drabek has been named as the "center-piece" of a deal for Halladay.
However, like Happ we already have contradictions, it has been reported that the Phils see Drabek as a "untouchable." Although, like adding Vernon Wells or Alex Rios, the Jays may insist that Drabek be in the deal.
Lastly, it comes down to money. The team that does land Halladay will have quite a bit of work to do. First off working out all the prospects, then working out the payroll you may be taking on and finally what are you going to do with Halladay? He doesn't appear to be another C.C Sabathia, any team acquiring Halladay will most likely want to sign him. Halladay would be seeking over $20 Million a year.
Switching teams here, the Blue Jays no doubt hold the cards. They will do a lot of insisting when making possible deals with teams who want Halladay's services. However, they have to be careful, not taking a good deal offered to them because they get greedy could hurt them in the end.
Remember the Johan Santana deal the Twins made with the Mets? The Twins waited to long to pull the trigger on a deal for Santana and ended up having to settle for a lesser deal. Now the Twins have ended up with only a decent everyday outfielder for one of the best pitchers in the league.
So my advice to teams wanting to trade for Halladay? Blow the Jays away with an offer. My advice to the Jays? Take it.
