Skip the introduction, let’s get right to the gist of this story:
Quarterbacks by Tiers:
Tier 1: The Elite Fantasy Producers
Tom Brady, New England
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay
Drew Brees, New Orleans
Philip Rivers, San Diego
Mike Vick, Philadelphia
Peyton Manning, Indianapolis
From 1-6, there’s really not a huge drop-off. All of these players will be at the top of the fantasy charts barring any injuries. Brady receives a new weapon this year in Chad Ochocinco and has a great set of young tight ends to go along with his top fantasy target, Wes Welker. Because of this, Brady should finish at the top of the tier.
Rodgers, Brees and Rivers put up similar types of numbers in ESPN’s fantasy leagues (about 30 points separated Rodgers and Brees), and all three should finish around the same point scale in 2011. Rodgers could see a bump in numbers with a healthy Jermichael Finley returning, while Brees may take a slight dip in numbers after losing Reggie Bush (a great receiving threat out of the backfield) and with the Saints appearing to build up a run game after selecting Mark Ingram in the first round.
Vick, who I have ranked at five, could easily jump into the top three if all goes according to plan this season. The Eagles have a shutdown secondary that should force more three-and-outs and give Vick more chances in each game. With DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, as well as Brent Celek, as his go-to options, Vick will once again be a top fantasy producer.
As foe Manning, he seems to always find himself atop the leading fantasy scorers. But one thing that could affect his standing is his offseason neck surgery. His health will play a major role in how he fares this season.
Tier 2: Just Shy of Tier 1’s Production
Matt Ryan, Atlanta
Matt Schaub, Houston
Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh
Tony Romo, Dallas
Both Ryan and Schaub have two of the best fantasy targets in the entire league. Ryan has Roddy White while Schaub has Andre Johnson. Because of this, both quarterbacks are guaranteed to put up terrific fantasy numbers, just as they did a year ago. Ryan also receives another go-to target in rookie Julio Jones, while Schaub will look for tight end Owen Daniels to have a bounce back season.
Roethlisberger returns familiar weapons in Mike Wallace, Hines Ward and Heath Miller, while second-year WR Emmanuel Sanders is considered one of the top young receivers in the league. As for Romo, he will lose Roy Williams (signed with Chicago), but he does return one of the top scoring tight ends in the league, Jason Witten.
Tier 3: The Potential Group
Sam Bradford, St. Louis
Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay
Jay Cutler, Chicago
There’s no question that Bradford is the best quarterback in his division. The Rams went out and added a weapon for Bradford in Mike Sims-Walker and rookie Austin Pettis. Along with Danny Amendola, Brandon Gibson and Laurent Robinson, Bradford has a potentially rising cast of receivers to work with.
Freeman had his break out year last year eclipsing the 20 touchdown mark. With Mike Williams having a year under his belt, and second-year WR Arrelious Benn looking to bounce back in 2011, Freeman should be able to finish around his 2010 numbers. Kellen Winslow Jr. also adds to Freeman’s points value.
The media is quick to jump on Cutler. However, he is a good fantasy option that should finish above his 2010 totals with some new additions on offense: WR Roy Williams, RB Marion Barber and rookie WR Dane Sanzenbacher. Leading receiver Jonnie Knox also returns, while tight end Greg Olson was traded this offseason — a move that could affect his numbers.
Tier 4: Hit-Or-Miss Group
Mark Sanchez, New York Jets
Joe Flacco, Baltimore
Matt Cassell, Kansas City
Matthew Stafford, Detroit
Kevin Kolb, Arizona
Eli Manning, New York Giants
Both Sanchez and Flacco will be working with a new cast of receivers. Sanchez loses Jerrico Cotchery and Braylon, but adds Plaxico Burress to the equation, while Flacco loses his two favorite targets in Derek Mason and Todd Heap, as well as Donte Stallworth, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Willis McGahee. Between the two, Sanchez is a safer bet.
Cassell could find himself at the top of this tier by seasons end. He has new receivers in rookie Jonathon Baldwin and Steve Breaston, and returns his favorite target in Dwayne Bowe. The new collection of talent could be just enough to make Cassell a solid starting QB in fantasy.
Ah, the injury-prone quarterback. Stafford could easily be in the next tier if it weren’t for all his setbacks. He has, arguably, the best WR in the game in Calvin Johnson, and a slew of talented players surrounding him, such as tight end Brandon Pettigrew. If (a big “if”) he stays healthy, Stafford will be in Tier 3 by the conclusion of the 2011 season.
Kolb and Manning are interesting options. Both are worth starting in fantasy leagues, but both have questions to be answered. Kolb has never been the lead man in his career and suffered an injury last year that led the way for Tier 1 QB Mike Vick. He teams up with Larry Fitzgerald in what could be one of the top duos in the NFC, but whether or not he can last a whole season is to be determined. Manning, on the other hand, returns his cast of receivers, but has absolutely nothing to work with at the tight end position (Kevin Boss was traded, Ben Patrick retired).
Tier 5: Who Knows What to Expect
Donovan McNabb, Minnesota
Kyle Orton, Denver
Matt Hassleback, Tennessee
David Garrard, Jacksonville
All four of these guys are in similar situations. They’ve had their fair share of success in the league, but have also had a few forgettable seasons, as well. McNabb joins a Minnesota offense that loses its top receiver in Sidney Rice, but features the top RB in the league in Adrian Peterson. His season will greatly depend on how Peterson performs.
As for Orton, he isn’t even sure if he will be starting in 2011. I expect him to start Week One, but once Denver finds themselves out of the race, Tim Tebow will be inserted into the lineup. But, if Denver starts winning, then Orton will play out the entire 16 games.
Hasslebeck, like McNabb, joins a new team in Tennessee. He will be working with Kenny Britt, Nate Washington and Daniel Graham, as well as star running back Chris Johnson. He’s never been a great fantasy option, but he consistently puts up average numbers and he will be a good backup option, just as David Garrard will be. The Jacksonville QB will be without Mike Sims-Walker, and he will have to rely heavily on Mike Thomas in order to put up respectable numbers, or else rookie Jake Locker will be inserted into the lineup.
Tier 6: The Fantasy Backups
Tarvaris Jackson, Seattle
Colt McCoy, Cleveland
Ryan Fitzpatrick, Buffalo
Jason Campbell, Oakland
Cam Newton, Carolina
Jackson goes to Seattle with his former receiver, Sidney Rice. The two should bring their chemistry over to the west coast, which will benefit Jackson’s fantasy value. He also has a great cast of tight ends in John Carlson and Zach Miller. He will be a solid backup option.
Campbell, McCoy and Fitzpatrick play for perennial last place teams. Because of this, their fantasy values aren’t impressive. McCoy has the best options in Josh Cribbs, Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiski, while Campbell will be working with an inexperienced cast. Fitzpatrick adds a new weapon in Brad Smith, formerly of the New York Jets, to go along with Lee Evans and Steve Johnson.
Newton is an interesting option. He has a great weapon in Steve Smith, which should boost his stock just as the addition of Greg Olson will.
Tier 7: Try to Avoid These Guys
Chad Henne, Miami
Alex Smith, San Francisco
Andy Dalton, Cincinatti
John Beck, Washington
There’s not much to say about any of these guys. They play for losing teams and none of them are good options to have on your team. If you have to take one of these guys, I’d go with Henne, as he at least has some options in Brandon Marshall, Reggie Bush and Davone Bess.
2 QB’s who I think are sleepers are
Matt Cassell (KC Chiefs) – look at the WR’s that have assembled
…Derrick Bowe, Steve Breaston,Chris Chambers Top pick Jonathon Baldwin, Have a good young TE in Tony Moeaki and a strong running game with Charles & Jones.. The Chiefs may have themost dynamic offense in the AFC Conference and only behind the Packers/Eagles in the entire NFL
T JAckson – Seahawks – The Former Vikings Off/Coordinator is now the OC for Seahawks so T Jackson is familiar with system very well and should hit the ground running during camp and pre-season to help his confidence.. but look at the weapons the Seahawks have added ,l At WR there is Mike WIlliams, Sydney Rice, Golden Tate, B Obomanu and at TE, they signed Zach Miller to go along with John Carlson.. If the Seahawks get any kind of consistency with their rebuilt OL (they hired former Raider Coach T Cable to Coach their OL) this could be a team that will put up some big #s and T-Jax & Rice are bvery familiar with each other and this new “System” being put in place in Seattle and they happen to be best of friends also…
QB’s are their way down…
Peyton Manning — Coming off his 2nd Neck Surgery 2 years in a row, he hasn’t even begun to throw the ball yet which is unheard of for him and he will miss most of Summer Camp.. The Colts are just not the same team though Manning is still a very good QB, but their OL is weaker and going thru a big changeover, they may play 2 Rookies at LT and RT to open the Season, their Running game is not what it used to be and R Wayne is another year older and A Collie, T Gonzales, P Garcon have all had injury concerns th elast couple of seasons.. I expect Manning to get off to a very slow start until at least mid-October and would stay away from hiim at all costs the beginning of the Season.. He has thrown 1 ball or been able to do any passing drills since last January.. This is a QB who is used to throwing 1000’s of passes during the off-season at his camps, team workouts, etc,etc and he hasn’t been able to do due to re-habbing from his neck surgery, Also his legs and speed are in decline as well, I think we will see a very average performance and statisitcs from him this year..
I certainly agree with Jackson. Having Rice come over with him to SEA will help him, also has two great TE’s. And playing the NFC West defenses is far less of a challenge then the tough D’s in the North. He could have a solid season if all goes right.
As for Cassell, it’s true, the Chiefs have assembled a respectable WR core. But most of their production comes from the RB’s, and the TD’s come from Charles and Jones, so that steals a little bit from Cassell. They have the 3rd toughest schedule (.520%) in the league, so that could also hurt him.
Continued on their way down
GIants QB E Manning– not only a poor year last season leading the NFL in 30 Turnovers, but He has lost his 2 favorite targerts — TE K Boss and WR Steve SMith is most likely to miss the 4-6 Weeks of the Season while receovering from late season knee surgery and maybe more (similar to Brandon Graham’s situation but Steve Smith is still not signed)
I really think Coach Coughlin is going to go back to his bread and butter and pound the rock 50 times a game between Bradshaw/Jacobs and then a lot of Play-Action to WR Hakeem Nicks for big plays.. But I really think that Coach Coughlin./OC GIlbride are going to take the ball out of Eli’s hands a lot to avoid the Turnovers,dumb plays that have costed them many games th elast 2 seasons and Coughlin job is on the line and he is going to call a very conservative old style Giant type of game plan for his job is on the line..
If Baldwin lives up to his hype and potential, the Chiefs may have one of the Top 2-3 WR Corps in the entire NFL behind the Packers.. The Seahawks are going to be up there as will some other teams (49ers now have Crabtree,Edwards,TE V Davis who will present some tough matchups..)
I still think the Eagles WR Corps has room to improve to get into the Top #5
but there is a big drop-off after the D-Jax/Maclin/Avant so Cooper and the 5th WR need to step up and be productive and take advatange of their opportunites and also the WR Coprs must do a better job of being more physical and epecially in the Red-Zone ecause not every TD will be a 40-50 Yard bomb play..
I have my fantasy draft coming up in 2 weeks. I get to keep one player from my roster last year. My only 2league real options are Vick and Aaron Rogers. Vick has the chance to be great but could also miss some time due to injury. I’m trying to make a decision without being biased toward the Eagles. Who should save?
Chargers QB Phil Rivers is another interesting pick..He’s had some great years throwing the ball and will have both WR’s V Jackson and M FLoyd back for full seasons though he will be missing All-World TE A Gates who is currently on the PUP List and still having lingering issues with his knees like he had at the end of
last season and the Chargers are still trying to fin a identity on who is going to run the ball.. If last years Top Pick RB (R MAtthews) doesn’t step up, they will become too one-dimensional and not win as many games putting Rivers in the continual pass-mode which sooner or later, catches up to you and especailly when teams know that’s what your going to do…Also on a side note, the Chargers OC the last few seasons (Chudzinski) left the Chargers to work with HC R Rivera at the Carolina Panthers…
Either one can get hurt, but I would go with Rogers for he’s on a team that’s loaded on offense with all the important pieces back again and they have the best WR Corp in the NFL, an emerging TE in J Finley, some good RB’s and a creative Coach who is a master on taking advantage of certain match-ups..
Packers lost OG COlledge and TE D Lee and added 2 solid draft picks along the OL, their Offense shouldn’t miss a beat from last year’s team..
I’d say Rodgers. You have to think, Vick hasn’t worked with DJack or Maclin this year, so timing could be off at the beginning, whereas Rodgers returns all his targets in addition to getting a healthy Jeremichal Finley back. Lots of weapons for Rodgers, I’d say Rodgers.
A real longshot but maybe a decent back-up QB selection would be Cam Newton of the Panthers, who so far in camp, looks like he will be the #1 Starter when the Season starts.. But they have a good running game with a 3 Headed montster with D Williams/J Stewart/M Goodson, They have all 5 OL returning healthy for the 1st time in a few seasons, from left to right (Gross,Wharton,Kalil,Schwartz, Otah) which may be one of the best OL in the NFL with 3 potential All-Pros in Gross,Kalil and Otah) They still have dangerous WR Steve Smith who is excited and seems rejuvenated with Newton at the helm instead of the roller coaster at QB the last few seasons aand they finally have 2 good receiving TE’s in J Shockey and Recent pick-up Greg Olson from a trade with the Bears.. They have 2-3 young promising WR’s opposite of Steve Smith in D Ggettis, B LaFell and A Edwards and you have to like the fact the Cam Newton with his size and athleticism will get some TD’s on Scrambling/QB Keepers plays like Vick does.. but Newton at 6-5 and 250 lbs will be the one dishing out the punishment..May not be a bad pick for a back-up QB..
Panthers also picked up Big WR Legedu Naanee from the Chargers too who at 6-3 225 lbs is another Red-Zone target.