What I Think Will Happen
A lot of people are holding out hope that the Eagles will use their high picks to address the defense, but I just don’t see it.
This coach thinks offense-first, and after making such a bold move to release a Pro Bowl receiver who had over 80 catches, 1,300 yards, and nine touchdowns, you can bet that Chip Kelly will want to make absolutely sure that he has as much top firepower as he can get his hands on.
A trade up doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Eagles. With only six picks available to them in this draft, they don’t really have the resources to justify sacrificing multiple picks in such a deep draft to move up for one guy.
I think the pick is going to be Marqise Lee. If Lee isn’t there, then the Eagles could still take either Kelvin Benjamin or Brandin Cooks, but trading down is also a very real possibility if the Eagles can pick up some extra picks and still get a wide receiver that they feel can make an impact.
It’s the sport of kings better than diamond rings… FOOTBALL!
Are you ready for some FOOTBALL!!!!
Let’s Go EAGLES.
Good Luck Howie.
Be prepared to scratch your heads, & be underwhelmed again.
DCar I think they either swing for the fences or take a walk back into end of first top of the 2nd. At 22 for what this team really needs and the talent in this draft(PASS RUSH) they aren’t getting anyone worth a damn.
You could draft 2bd coming if Troy Polamalu if Cole takes first 8 weeks to get a sack his impact will be minimal.
who I think the Eagles will select: Marquis Lee
who I want the Eagles to select: Stephon Tuitt
who I don’t want the Eagles to select: Kony Ealy
I hate Ealy… Tuitt at #22 is too high, trade back to where the 49ers are drafting and grab extra picks in rd 2, 3 and get a big man on the front line…I’m down with that.
Lee is a very good player. He would be coming to a coach who would really remind people of his sophomore (best WR in college) season.
Lee has the work ethic, attitude that would win Eagles fans over.
What if Eagles went WR with 2 out of their first 3 picks? I’m not encouraging such a move, shoot I want defense in first 2 rounds… but that would certainly drop some jaws…
I can respect that Jeff. I am on record that I think highly of Ealy’s potential, and that he will be a special player in the NFL..
But I all I would like to see tonight is some sign o us moving in the right direction in terms of getting Defensive, and Offensive talent – no more mediocre players, that we pray every week to play over their heads…..We need impact talent on Defense…..
Outside Watkins, I don’t like any of the expected 1st Round WR’s – I think the Second Round Guys will be better players – Cody Latimere, Allen Robinson, DaVante Adams, Paul Richardson….I’m hoping for a trade down with Cleveland, and again with the 49ers, and continuing to trade down throughout the remainder of the draft. Also a few trades involving perhaps Mathis, Brown, Graham, (and not Vinny Curry) resulting in something like this:
1 Kyle Fuller CB, or Ha Ha Clinton Dix FS (if he is there)
2a DeMarcus Lawrence – OLB, or Kony Ealy OLB/DE
2b. Cody Latimere – WR
2c. Jeremiah Attaochu – OLB
2d. Deone Buchannon – SS
3a. Gabe Jackson – OG
3b. Paul Richardson – WR
4. Daniel McCullers – DT
5a. Brandon Thomas – OG
5b. Walt Aikens – CB
6. Andrew Jackson – ILB
7. Brandon Denmark – ILB/OLB
Stephen tuitt thank god your not in the front office wow
Only players I want them to take @22 is cooks,Barr or ha ha.
But there best bet for the future of this team is trade down. That’s why I’m kinda hoping all the players I wouldn’t mind them drafting being gone that way they would have to trade down.
Only positions to draft in the first round are QB, OL, DL and perhaps DB.
I hope the Eagles trade down. Here’s why: (sorry, long article, but I took out all the graphs and mat items so that simpletons like Koolbreeze can more easily understand it)
Btw – the last line is clearly for GMCliff.
How NFL teams ignore basic economics and draft players irrationally
Updated by Joseph Stromberg on May 7, 2014, 1:00 p.m. ET
The NFL draft begins on Thursday. In the football world, it is a huge deal.
For non-football fans: this is when NFL teams select college football players to add to their rosters, the new players awkwardly hold up jerseys with the number one on them, and football fans everywhere freak out. The worst teams are given the highest picks, and if they want to improve, they need to use them as shrewdly as possible.
Teams that succeed — like the Seattle Seahawks, winners of this past season’s Super Bowl — tend to build their rosters heavily through the draft, and merely supplement their drafted talent through trades and free agency. NFL executives invest huge amounts of time and resources into scouting players and ranking them, hoping to draft stars in the first round and solid contributors later on.
it’s not their imperfect player evaluation, but their refusal to follow the principle of risk diversification
But here’s the thing: despite years of data, most NFL teams still have no idea how to work the draft most effectively.
It’s not their imperfect player evaluation, but something more basic — their refusal to follow the principle of risk diversification. That’s the conclusion economists Cade Massey and Richard Thaler came to after analyzing fifteen years of draft data in a series of papers — and it’s still true, despite recent changes to the wages rookies are paid.
Draft picks can be traded, and the success of any one player picked is highly uncertain. Because of that, their data says that in the current trade market, teams are always better off trading down — that is, trading one high pick for multiple lower ones — but many teams become overconfident in their evaluation of one particular player and do the exact opposite: package several low picks for the right to take one player very early.
“There are one or two teams out there that philosophically follow this idea,” says Massey, who serves as a draft consultant with several NFL teams that he can’t disclose. “But in my experience, teams always say they’re on board with it in January. Then when April rolls around, and they’ve been preparing for the draft for a long time, they fall in love with players, get more and more confident in their analysis, and fall back into the same patterns.”
1) It’s just not worth it to trade up
The first analysis Massey and Thaler did was to compare what teams are willing to pay to pick higher (in terms of extra draft picks packaged as part of a trade) with the value they ultimately get out of doing so, in terms of player production.
To calculate how much teams pay to trade up, they looked at 1,078 trades made between 1990 and 2008. The trades work something like this: a team will trade the 16th and 32nd overall picks, say, for the 5th overall pick. They might also include picks from next year’s draft.
Massey and Thaler graphed all trades, which let them assign a relative value to each pick in the first five rounds of the draft:
The most important thing about this graph: the curve is very, very sharp in the first round (picks 1 through 32). That means teams think the very top picks are extremely valuable: the value of the 10th pick is only about half that of the first pick.
Now, it’s worth pointing out that for years, most teams followed something called “The Chart,” which assigned theoretically fair point values to each pick in the draft for trade purposes. Since 2008, many teams have smartly stopped treating “The Chart” as gospel, and the curve has become slightly less steep.
But Massey says it still hasn’t flattened out to anything near where it should be, in terms of the actual value derived from the players picked.
He and Thaler figured this out by calculating the odds that the first player picked at any given position will perform better — in terms of the number of games he starts in his first five seasons — than the second player drafted at that position. This is relevant because a team will often trade up when they identify a player they prefer at a needed position: they need a wide receiver, and a few highly-rated ones are available, but they trade up because they’re certain one is much better.
But the data says that teams just aren’t very good at figuring out when this is true. On average, the chance that first player will start more games than the second one picked at his position: 52 percent. Compared to the third, it’s still only 55 percent, and compared to the fourth, it’s merely 56 percent.
the chance that the first player picked at a position will start more games than the second is just 52 percent
These numbers suggest that moving up eight picks (the average distance between the first and second players at the same position) should cost a small amount, since you’re only increasing the odds of a getting a more productive player by four percent or so. But as the steep curve shows, teams pay a ton to move up, especially at the top of the draft.
“It’s basically a coin flip,” Massey says, “but teams are paying a great deal for the right to call which side of the coin.”
One recent trade epitomizes this point — and shows that even in the post-“Chart” era, teams still overvalue the highest picks. In 2012, the Washington football team traded the 6th pick, the 39th pick, and their first round picks in 2013 and 2014 to the St. Louis Rams so they could move up four spots and take Robert Griffin III — a player they were certain was a once-in-a-lifetime quarterback — with the second overall pick.
Just two years later, the trade already looks pretty shortsighted. That’s not because Griffin is a bad player (he’s almost one of the few that might make a crazy trade like this seem worthwhile), but because the odds of getting a great player with one high pick are so much lower than getting one with four high picks.
The team would’ve been better served sitting tight and just drafting the next-best quarterback (Ryan Tannehill) and using the other three picks on much-needed players. Or they could have waited and drafted a quarterback this year — say, Johnny Manziel — when they would’ve had the 2nd overall pick themselves if they hadn’t made the trade.
2) It really pays off to trade down
Given that teams, on the whole, are irrationally willing to pay a lot to trade up, smart teams can reap huge benefits by trading down. Even staying put and drafting from your original spot, the researchers’ analysis shows, is not a good strategy.
For each pick in the first round, they calculated all of the different two-pick packages a team could’ve gotten by trading down, based on the historical data (a team with the first pick, for instance, could get the 2nd and 181st picks, or the 14th and 15th picks, or any combination of picks in between that provide the same sum value).
teams are imperfect talent evaluators, so having two later picks is better than a single early one
Then they calculated what teams get out of these picks on average, in terms of the number of starts a player provides in his first five years and the number of Pro Bowls he’s voted to. (They included Pro Bowls to counter the criticism that their analysis ignores the unique impact of superstar players solely available in the first few picks.)
Again, the data was unequivocal. On average, trading down and getting two players gave a team five more starts per season and slightly more total Pro Bowls.
You could chalk this up to the simple fact that more players start more games, but it’s more than that. Even if you imagined that the team trading down could only keep the better one of the two players it drafted, it’d still get slightly more total starts and the same number of Pro Bowls. The truth is that teams are imperfect talent evaluators, so having two later picks is better than a single early one. Risk diversification at work.
3) Players picked lower are cheaper
All of these reasons to trade down don’t even include the fact that players picked later in the draft get paid lower salaries, because the NFL collective bargaining agreement sets wages for the first few years of players’ careers based on their draft slot. Saving money matters because all teams have to abide by a hard salary cap — this year, it’s $133 million — so paying less to draft picks means more is left over for veteran players.
For every single spot in the draft, the researchers compared the amount of salary paid to a player with the value a team gets from him on the field. (For this analysis, they used a more sophisticated metric for value: they looked at the average statistical production yielded by a player taken at that spot of the draft between 1994 and 2008, then converted that into dollars, based on what teams paid a player with that level of production on the free agent market on average).
In the graph below, the red line is the actual salary paid to a player picked at each spot, the green line is the average performance provided, and the blue is the difference — the money you save drafting someone at that spot instead of having to pay more for a veteran free agent who’d play at a similar level.
The blue line peaks around pick 33, the start of the second round — making it the sweet spot in the draft. If you had to make one pick, this is where you’d get the most bang for your buck, because there’s a pretty good chance of getting a productive player and he won’t command a particularly high salary. But since you can get multiple picks by trading a single high one, maximizing value means moving down into round two (picks 33 through 64).
One caveat is that the salary data comes from picks made under the old NFL collective bargaining agreement, which paid players picked in the top 10 considerably higher salaries then they get currently. But the salaries for picks from 10 onward have barely changed — and because trading down is so much more fruitful, Massey says the argument still applies for the first round as a whole.
4) Teams that trade down more often win more games
The most straightforward piece of proof for all this analysis is the fact that trading down and amassing more pick value — in terms of the blue line in the graph above — correlates with more wins on the field.
Massey and Thaler came to this conclusion by looking at the number of wins a team had in any given season between 1997 and 2008, and the total value of all picks they’d made in the previous four years (the amount of time, on average, a rookie is under contract for).
They found that one standard deviation in pick value translated to 1.5 more wins per season on the field. Sure, it’s a small sample size, and there’s a lot of chance and other factors built into the system — a coach’s strategy, for instance — but trading down correlates with a significant amount of victories, given that there are only 16 games in a season.
So why don’t more NFL teams follow this advice?
If all teams took note of these findings and corrected their behavior, the principles would no longer apply. Teams would be much less interested in trading up, so the lucrative market for trading down would evaporate.
Why hasn’t this happened? One answer is a widely-known psychological bias called the overconfidence effect. As people are given more information, the accuracy of their analysis often hits a ceiling, but their confidence in it continues to increase.
As people are given more information, the accuracy of their analysis hits a ceiling, but their confidence in it continues to increase
This tendency has been demonstrated in all sorts of areas, from bettors picking horses to psychologists making diagnoses. It’s not hard to imagine that NFL general managers — who are given scouting reports on players that cover everything from their body fat percentage to their home life — fall victim to the same sort of overconfidence and, as Massey said, “fall in love” with certain players.
There’s also the fact that the sports world as a whole tends to glamorize superstars — leading many to disproportionately attribute a 53-player roster’s success to one or two highly drafted players. For a struggling GM, it might seem much easier to trade up and land a guaranteed superstar than patiently fill a roster with competent players.
The problem, though, is that there are no guaranteed superstars — and Thaler and Massey have found that, given a long enough timeframe, no teams are any better at accurately evaluating prospects than others. Sure, a GM might hit a hot streak over the course of a few drafts, but long-term, they estimate that 95 to 100 percent of the difference in teams’ odds of striking gold with any one pick is driven by chance.
So the key isn’t drafting better — it’s just drafting more.
As Cassey noted, there are a few teams out there following his philosophy. In a recent interview, Eric DeCosta — assistant GM of the perennially-successful Baltimore Ravens — dropped a hint about the identity of one of them:
We look at the draft as, in some respects, a luck-driven process. The more picks you have, the more chances you have to get a good player. When we look at teams that draft well, it’s not necessarily that they’re drafting better than anybody else. It seems to be that they have more picks. There’s definitely a correlation between the amount of picks and drafting good players.
My daughter’s doctoral thesis was slightly fewer words (and much less interesting). However, I agree completely. Trade down if you can. I think someone will want to jump in to the bottom of the first to get a QB. Accumulate picks. I trust the FO to get it right.
WTF Vinnie, I had a seizure half way through your long winded narrative WTF?!? LMMFBO!!!!!
“Draft Day, Johnny Manziel, 5 years later how am I the man still” – Drake
It Has Finally Arrived! Draft Day!
The Birds will surprise us today fellas, I can smell it in the air…
That smell is the shit in your diaper.
mh, that was beautiful! LMMFBO!!!!!!!
I slept like a little kid waiting up to see Santa Clause. I’m fired up…I want Chip to shock the world, why not? Trade up, trade down, stay at #22….. Get me playmakers Howie and Chip…
Let’s be mentioned with the Packers,Seahawks and 49ers this season as Super Bowl contenders.
The Chip factor is real,…oh is it real… E!A!G!L!E!S!….. LETS GO!!!!!!!!!
Jeff, change to decaf! Be prepared to be underwhelmed, disappointed, & angered.
If you draft into the strength of this draft, we will draft a CB, WR and G in rds 1 -2- then 3. Not sure that is because Chip is an offense coach, but rather that is where the quality is….
Trade down trade down trade down
Players that must be traded cause they don’t fit and be replaced with players in this draft that will fit.
1.graham- would be good the 4-3
2.curry- would be a pro bowler in the 4-3
3.brent celeck- getting paid to much just to block
4.cox- could be an all pro in the 4-3
5. Brown- if he starts somewhere could be 1000yd back
People need to wake up and see reality. The eagles aren’t trading up and mortgaging this year and next years draft. Not gonna happen.
gloomy, Cox & Celek aren’t going anywhere! Celek is our best blocker, & Cox still has upside, & growth to capitalize on.
All this waiting for one round tonight blows, after all the waiting if they trade down into the second round that would blow, if they draft an offensive lineman or Cooks that’ll blow as well. If they trade down and get a Evans or a Mack that’ll be great. If they trade Foles and draft Johnny Football I’ll become a Jags fan. LOL
I am sure that when Bill Walsh was struggling through 2-14 and 6-10 seasons at the start of his Pro coaching career he WAS saying those things.
He was gutting the 49ers and bringing in the players that he felt would be best for h=HIS system
Kelly is doing the exact same thing. He is making the determination that Vick, Mesean and others are not fits for his system and he’s overhauling the roster.
This overhaul will continue on the offensive side of the ball this weekend, becaus ehe is not done bringing in the types of players he wants for his offense to work the way he wants it.
So prepare to be pissed off.
D is coming in 2015. Right now he’s not done finding his types of players for his offense.
F^#@ Bill Walsh, & the Niners! Nobody wants to hear that shit after going 10-6, & making the playoffs!
Loser mentality, is for losers like havenoclue!
Pretty much DCar, I have no idea what Vinnie is talking about, anything less than a playoff win is a failure. Period!!!!
I sense 3-4 Trade Scenarios for the Eagles who are #22
That would involve a couple of Teams who want a QB and nay not get one if they sit tight
1) Texans offer #33 & #65 to get Eagles #22 to Select a QB
(Carr or Bridgewater) before the Browns pick at #26
2) Browns Offer Eagles #26 & #68 Picks to move up
To #22 to get their QB
3) 49ers offer Eagles #30 and #62 Picks to move up to #22 to get a top WR
4) Jaguars offer Eagles #35th and #65th to move up to #22 to get a QB
5) Colts have no 1st Rounder due to Trent Richardson Trade last year and want a top flight WR.. I see them offering their # 58th & #126 and their 1st around Pick in 2015 to get Eagles #22
Bottom line is that Eagles only have 6 Selections in this Draft starting out and GM Roseman loves his Picks so I see them Tradibg Back to acquire 2 more Picks and perhaps a 2015 Pick from one of the Teams I mentioned, plus they will look to trade Brandon Graham & Bryce Brown for mid-round Selections
The pick will be either Kyle Fuller or Odell Beckham.
Good Job Big L, Ive been high on Beckham jr for months, when guys were saying hes strictly a slot receiver haha yeah right, this kid has shot up draft boards and some are even saying that it wouldn’t surprise them if he gets picked before Mike Evans in the 1st…
I would like either Pick, Unfortunately, I don’t believe either Player is on the Board at #22 .. Fuller is rising up the Big Board and the Jets are in love with Beckham to go along with WR Decker to give Geno Smith some weapons
Lord please let howie be smart and trade back.
It would be in the Eagles best interest to draft Manziel before the Cowboys get to him at 16 or earlier (since cowboys may move up)… We don’t wanna have to deal with this kid in our division for the next 8-10 years…
He has star quality, he will be a all pro, he will be a great in the league.. Manziel is made for Philadelphia..
The trade in my opinion would be to trade Foles for the 1st ovr pick, he’d be a Texan and he fits the description of a Bill Obrien QB, and draft Clowney or Mack. That solidifies the LB core and pass rush with 1 pick… (Im a Foles guy but I can see Manziel running this offense 100% over the 80% we see from Foles who cant run the zone read, a huge component in Chips offense…
Then watch Manziel fall to the teens and nab him before the Cowboys do because they want Manziel bad there in Texas…
It may sound wacky and unrealistic but that would transform this roster from good to great overnight… then they can still trade graham, brown, curry etc for later round picks…
what are they using to get in front of boys? also why would a team trade away a pic which is paid peanuts for guys getting ready to leave their rookie deal?
It would be a future first rounder to move up in front of the Cowboys..
Remember Foles is due a new contract soon I believe after this year, and Id rather pay Manziel for the next 3-4 years on his rookie deal then to have to give a guy who cant run the offense 100% the way you want to including the zone read.
I trade Foles for the 1st overall pick.. I draft Mack or Clowney there.. Then get up between #s 10-13 and you can get Johnny Tackle Football Manziel..
Hes made for Philly
lmfao. foles for the #1 pick in the draft.haaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
thats reasonable
You’re functioning under the assumption that the zone read is the major part of the offense when it isn’t. Kelly is more interested in tempo and accuracy which Foles meets.
Arm strength is a laughable measurable in QBs. Brady doesn’t have a cannon. Peyton throws absolute wobblers even before surgery.
Kyler Boller threw a football on one knee damn near 70 yards through a goal post. What good was that. The new style of QB fell on its face last year. Don’t point to Russell Wilson because their offense was predicated on the run, then playaction off of the run, THEN zone read. If anything Carroll used Wilson like Andy Reid used Vick dropping 6-8 yards back so he could see over the defense and work playaction. Difference is Wilson is smart and accurate and Vick wasnt.
All that being said I’m not sold on Foles. But I damn sure wouldnt mortgage the house on Johnny Manziel. Andrew Luck coming out two years ago yes. This year hell no.
IJ its not an assumption its a fact. We watched Chip try to use the zone read with Foles over and over and over and Foles would get a painful 1-3 yards if that.. It hurts watching him try to run…
You made my point for me, the Birds led what on offense in the entire league? Rushing… And that’s because we have Lesean McCoy, not because teams were fearful of Nick Foles taking off haha
If we put Manziel back there, a lot of lanes open up for Mccoy and more opportunities for Manziel to take off and get us 10-20 yds opposed to Nick getting us 3 tops…
Im a Foles Guy but Manziel long term in this offense appears to be a more natural fit..
Wrong Foles opened up lanes for McCoy because Foles was not afraid to throw the ball down the field. The Zone read works just as well if your QB cant run but he can throw accurately and consistently. Its the exact reason why this team took off. On many of Coopers passes hes singled up on a zone read play Foles put the ball in play for Cooper and it would have been even more of a passing team and deadlier if they got ANYTHING out of the 3rd WR on this team. Avant was horrible in the slot.
Why am I giving up my qb that went out 27-2 for a 5″11 qb with a suspect arm
lol drafting manziel would be worst than the Freddie Mitchell pick. I see some of you don’t have a clue about football wow.
only a fool (jon hart) or a doofus (koolbreeze) would suggest such an idiotic thing
Foles does not run the offense 100% that’s why… Im a Foles guy but he cant run the Zone Read, a huge weapon in this offense…
Foles is slow mechanically, yes hes accurate but has a weak arm..
Manziel is our guy and he fits the new mold of QBs entering the league that cant just run run run, he can make every throw and has a very high football IQ..
We could walk away in the first round with two future faces of the franchise..
If Im Lurie I ask myself, who will earn me more money long term, Nick Foles or Johnny Tackle Football Manziel? That’s a no brainer.. Manziels name alone will earn you big bucks… I just see Manziel taking this Eagles team further than Foles could, and again im a Foles guy but I like Manziel more for this offense…
Hes box office, if hes on tv no one on this site or in the country wouldn’t tune in…
Make the move Birds…
ur wrong about virtually everything
wrong about foles having a weak arm
wrong about foles not being able to run the zone read, he did it all last year.
wrong that manziel is our guy. he is your guy because you have a man crush on guys that espn covers a lot
you say we could walk away with two future faces but its not true because we dont have the ammo to make a bold move like moving up inside the top 9 to get manziel and the texans would never give us #1 for foles straight up
ur clueless .
Mhenski is totally right. All your points about Foles are wrong. And who’s to say Manziel can run it at 100%? He’s an unknown right now.
And while Manziel might be “box office” right now that could wear off pretty quickly if he doesn’t succeed. Look, we have a strong QB that we’ll find out more about this year, his first year going in as a starter. Let’s fill some actual holes and help the players we have not replace supposed 80% good players with 100%. We have plenty of 30 – 40% players that need to be replaced first!
He doesn’t run this offense 100% hes at 80%.. Its a fact Essope. Zone Read is a huge component of this offense. Without it it doesn’t operate at the level it could…With it its faster and more dynamic and almost impossible to keep up with.. They move at a frenetic pace…
Im a Foles guy but im not blinded by last years success…
Manziel does have some Flaws but im willing to work with a guy that actually fits the description of what im looking for in my QB in this offense over a slow moving flat footed accurate but string bean arm guy…
Maybe Im too honest for this site.. sheesh
I disagree. You’re pegging Kelly into one type of offense. No matter what you say the fact is that the offenses were entirely different under Vick and Foles. The offense construct for Foles was more efficient while at the same time being just as deadly. Not to mention his lack of mobility didnt hurt the one thing the zone read compliments the most…the run. If anything McCoy was even more dangerous with Foles because Foles could read the entire defense, not just half the field and could make the short accurate throws or live to play another play.
Marcus Marriotta and Johnny Manziel couldnt be more different and he would fit bit now in the pros under Kelly.
Kelly and Manziel fit perfect in college. In the pros totallly different ball game and if that kid is running zone read Manziel will be hurt withing 3-4 games of starting.
Remember when Vick got crushed by the Redskins or Rg3 against the Falcons…same thing.
And I also think Manziel has talent…but lets be realistic hes not setting the world on fire year 1.
Jon I didn’t say Foles was running it at 100%. I was trying to say that even if Foles was running it at 80% (which is hard to figure out given he hasn’t played a whole year under center yet) aren’t there bigger needs on this team? And there is no guarantee that Manziel will be able to be better than Foles is in this offense. It’s a risk. At least with Foles we saw some results in the NFL. I think you just have to give it to him this year and reevaluate after.
Maybe Manziel is going to tear it up in the NFL, who knows. And if Chip wants him maybe they will trade Foles. I like too much in Foles to pull that trigger. Draft just about any position other than QB and RB.
By objective measure at the combine Foles was gunned with one of the strongest arms of any qb of any modern class of qbs
He throws with touch because it’s easier for the receivers but he has plenty of hose and has flashed it when necessary
Yeah, it’s refreshing to see some nice air under the ball and watch him lead screens and crossing routes in stride. All the while he can zip it in there when necessary.
yet according to mr knownothing jon hart he has a weak arm.
what a tard you are hart
Maybe Im too honest for this site.. sheesh
If you were honest you would acknowledge the fact that Nick Foles ran the zone/read offense more effectively than the fastest QB who ever played in the NFL, Mike Vick.
If you understand the zone/read offense you know that it consist of more than one play. You, and many other people talk like the zone/read is nothing more than the QB pitching the ball to the RB, or keeping it himself…. That’s one play….
When a QB READS the ZONE there are many options. Making the correct READ and choosing the correct option is much more important than foot speed.
It’s funny that so many people think that they know better than Chip Kelly what his offense needs…. If Kelly thought he needed a running QB, the best running QB in the history of the NFL would not be in NY today.
Good points Jon…I think your on to something. I don’t believe we will get a QB but they are surely thinking about it because I don’t believe they are sold on Foles. Just listen to how Kelly talks about him…it was like pulling teeth to get him to endorse Foles as a starter or make any kind of commitment to him.
Ignore Asshead (mhenski) and Vinnietheloser, and a number of other nitwits here and look at the objective facts. Foles played well last year against some of the weakest teams in the league. He was the luckiest QB in the league and we still didn’t win a playoff game at home. I was listening to a scout on the radio yesterday who said that Foles had more ‘almost’ interceptions than any QB in the league….and he considers this year as the big test for Foles…and this was a scout who liked Foles too.
The bottom line on Foles is that:
His arm is at best average
He holds the ball too long
He doesn’t throw into tight windows
He doesn’t run the offense at a 100% can’t run the read option
He is not the QB for a Super Bowl contending team
I don’t think we will get a QB in this draft but unless Foles has a monster year and we win some playoff games this year…Foles is outta here
We need to draft defense…develop that…we are going to go 7-9 get a good pick next year…and will probably look to get a QB in the draft next year
you think jon is on to something because you dont know how to think doofus
I’ve been saying Mike Evans even when Djax was on the team and since the season ended. If we end up in the top 10 and get our hands on him or heavens forbid Sammy Watkins I will be ecstatic.
If we trade up to 15 for Odell Beckham I will be pissed. Not that he isnt a good player but you might as well stay at 22 and get Lee or trade down.
Leverage next years draft if you think this team is a division winner again. Hedge your bets if your not sold on the talent.
Im still not sold on our two biggest questions Cox and Foles. They will either eat up the cap next year or leave them with a ton of dough to rearrange the team again fully.
IJ, is Mike Evans Vincent Jackson, or David Boston?????
I wouldn’t speak too fast before he puts on an NFL Uniform. I have seen so many hyped players coming out of College into the NFL, and not turn out to be anything more than presumed potential…….
I don’t see Evans being that….
I see David Boston….
I disagree I see a better version of Vincent Jackson.
Every player coming out college is hyped some way or another. I saw RG3 as just another Mike Vick(never been a Vick fan but respected how he handled himself when he came back so didnt root against him)
With the Pass Interfence is called in this league I just think he would absolutely thrive day 1 in the league. You can leave him on the field no matter what and the biggest thing is he would be an absolute RZ threat at his size.
To me hes the type of player that can turn bad plays into good ones. He did that alot with Manziel. I am the opposite at times he was the only viable option on that A&M squad and he bailed out Manziel quite a bit. Also Nick Saban tried to throw the kitchen sink at this kid and he tore up that Alabama defense.
Hope I’m not wrong Cliff but thats my guy.
I don’t see Vincent Jackson. I wanted the Eagles to draft Vincent Jackson in 2005. I saw him dominate the competition at the Senior Bowl, and the combine running a 4.46 40 at 6-5, and at that time 220lbs.
They are similar in some measurables only, but that is where the comparison should stop. Bottom Line fro me is that he is not Vincent Jackson…..I think his overall career will reveal that….and you’ll look back on this and realize your assessment was wrong.
The only thing Evans have in common with Jackson, is that they both light skin brothers. Lol that’s the only comparison I see Gm not even close.
Diddy,…………..LMBO!!!!
No you’re wrong GM lol
I know you hope so IJ……..BUT I AM RARELY WRONG….
Lol is your shoulder sore from patting yourself on the back.
Oh and MCW begs to differ
I respect your love for Mike Evans and….
To me he’s the type of player that can turn bad plays into good ones. He did that alot with Manziel. I am the opposite at times he was the only viable option on that A&M squad and he bailed out Manziel quite a bit. Also Nick Saban tried to throw the kitchen sink at this kid and he tore up that Alabama defense………..
My response to that would be, he did that in College against a bunch of secondary’s that didn’t have NFL Caliber Talent that knew how to play him…We’ll see how he does in his career…..
GMCliff,
What do you think of WR, Odell Beckham Jr?
I know you would rather the Eagles draft someone else, but as WR go, how do you like Beckham?
I think he is a nice prospect, very fast….But you know me Irish, I pay attention to trends, and intangibles that make a player standout as special from another, not just measurables, and 40 times..
I think he’s ranked high by some mostly because of his speed EXCLUSIVELY….
But from what I have seen from him in his career, is that he is more dependent on that speed than skill, in route running, reading how he may be played in the NFL by experienced CB’s with the same speed, but different coverage abilities to compensate for his speed, and overall ability to catch the football with his hands – and not with his body, which is what he does a lot of….
He isn’t someone who I feel will be a game changer – outside the return game. He is just the flavor of the month so to speak. I feel he will be a good pro – but not a difference maker.
My trend comparison for Odell Beckham, is Donnie Avery, Eddie Royal type player – a possible2nd/3rd round talent, but will be over drafted because of hype…..
Marquise Lee, is actually a better prospect, although, I don’t see him bringing any more than Beckham to a team, but because he didn’t run as fast Beckham, will be drafted before him….He’s okay Irish
I’m surprised, a little. I thought Beckham had better hands than some of the other top ranked WRs. I don’t study these guys as closely as you do, so I will defer to your opinion…
Irish, the only receiver who has better hands is Watkins, Beckham is Avant with speed.
Beckham reminds me of Marvin Harrison.. quiet, very smooth runner,in and out of breaks at top speed, with very good hands..
I believe he may have the most Upside out of this Receiver Class
if he gets to the right Team .. He’s not very physical, not much of a blocker downfield, but if you are looking for a medium-deep route threat who can make plays down the field, then Odell Beckham is your WR.. He will have a nice NFL Career
Paul you are on the money with the Marvin Harrison comparison, except the hands – his hands are too inconsistent, to completely live up to this comparison..
But that is just my opinion Irish. ..Many I’m sure will disagree.
David Boston without the roid rage.
and the color contacts?
I agree with Paulmans trade down scenarios. That would be my first option – unless BARR or HaHa are there. BTW Paulman, when can we expect your final mock draft. Since you have picked virtually every player in this draft at one time, I am really interested in your final best final guess as to (a) who you think they will draft (b) who you want them to draft.
I’ll do one after work….
I’ll post one here tonight when I get home…
Probably under the Mock Draft Article
I will be very satisfied if one of these guys is an Eagle tonight in this order…
1: Barr
2: Pryor
3: CJ Mosely
4: Ha Ha
5: Beckam
6: Lee
I love Watkins and Evans but its just not realistic to think we would even have a shot at that so I’m not including them nor the top pass rushers
Swap Pryor with Mosely Dix with Pryor and I would be happy with that.
Let me ask this, does great production on the field equate to job security? No. Obviously not with this Eagles organization…
Ala Desean Jackson… If your not a “Chip guy” then you wont be here. A “Chip guy” could also mean a guy he didn’t draft. He didn’t draft Foles he inherited him. Though he had a great year it does not secure his job…
Ive been saying Chip loves Manziel and Manziel loves Chip.. Chip tried recruiting him at Oregon but Manziel picked Texas A&M at the last second (his home state)..
Manziel fits this offense like a glove..
If you liked what Foles did last year, wait until you see Manziel run it if they draft him…
lmfao gonna be waiting a lonnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnng time for manziel to run chips offense
production equates to job security yes. but desean had 1 great year in his entire career and was a headache. it was a good football move long term for us. desean wont catch more than 60 balls in a season ever again
Mhenski, what’s your definition of a great year? He’s (DeSean) been to 3 pro bowls in his 6 year NFL career. He’s one of the only wr’s to ever get selected to a pro bowl as a wideout and return man. He’s had 3 1000+ yard seasons. If you do not like him fine, don’t trivialize or minimize what he’s done in the league production wise or as an Eagle. He’s the 3rd leading receiver in Eagles history. Chip Kelly is not the reason DeSean was successful as he was already successful while Chip was still in Eugene Oregon as an OC. Whether he catches 60 balls again is not his baseline for future success or failure. He will have more impactful, successful seasons in the league with the deadskins.
No knowledgeable NFL fan, analyst or player, knowing DeSean’s history of production would say he’s only had one great year in his career, and that was because of Chip Kelly.
Yet your trivializing the fact that a guy who had a career avg of 50rec 1k yds and 5 tds a season had his best season in an offense that is unique to one specific coach and once specific QB because Djax was here in the with McNabb and Vick in the heaviest passing offense in the NFL and he was not a no.1 WR.
Pro Bowls are a joke because Evan Mathis is ALL PRO and didnt get voted to the Pro Bowl.
If your not going to take anything from DeSean than do likewise for Foles or Kelly. He put McCoy Djax Foles on another level. To say otherwise is laughable.
I never said that Kelly or Foles did’nt play a role in his success this past season, as my point was and still remains that Jackson was already recognized as successful as a wideout prior to Kelly or Foles becoming Eagles. You’re attempting to argue a point that I did not state…which was that he was successful prior to last year. That’s undisputable. My argument had nothing to do with me trivializing Kelly’s or Foles impact, but everything to do with Jackson being successful prior to, which mhenski stated the opposite position.
DeSean had one great year…last year. He was a very good receiver before that but he was not this revisionist no.1 that many on here tend to try and portray him as because they were pissed off because he got dealt.
If that wasnt your point apologies but the way I read your post was that DeSean was a monster before Kelly and I believe and the numbers suggest that was far from the truth.
However I will not take away from that fact that Day 1 he was a dynamic impactful player.
That’s fair, however, I believe with more stable QB play he could have had more production, as his past production when compared to this year was not a by-product of his skill set, but a product of spreading the ball around, running QB’s (Vick) and strohman bread soft QB (Kevin Kolb) was a factor as well. And yes…I’m one of those guys that wish Djax was still here. He was my guy, I didn’t concern my self with the pain in the ass stuff. Dez Bryant is too, I’d take him. I’d rather they have kept him this year to focus on defense in this draft (hopefully they still take Barr in the 1st). i knew jackson wouldn’t be here in 2015, wanted to see him operate with all of the other weapons here in a second year of this offense. On the field, it could have been epic in my opinion! Who doesn’t want to see that?
eaglehaslanded,
I never said desean wasnt successful prior to last year, what i said was he was never GREAT prior to last year.
bottom line is his contract was paying him to be great and he wasnt. you dont pay a guy to be the 3rd highest paid WR in the game to not be great on the field, off the field and in the locker room.
happy trails desean
pro bowls are crap awards to me that mean squat
desean jackson was set to be the 3rd highest paid receiver in the game this year which is insane, he barely is and may not be a top 10 wr in the nfl. he doesnt block, he doesnt run all routes, he has quit on the team before and has a concussion history.
when i say he had 1 great season i mean it because to me this isnt great:
62 catches, 912 yards, 2 tds (Actually that is great for a rookie season)
62, 1156, 9tds (pretty good for year 2, not great)
47, 1056, 6tds (gross, not good at all for a #1 WR)
58, 961, 4 tds (gross not good at all for a #1 WR)
45, 700, 2 tds ( gross not good at all for a #1 WR)
82,1332, 8 tds GREAT
b
Looking at the QB’s he was playing with, I think that’s ok. You can see what hewas able to do when he played with a good QB, having a good system. You’re coorect, his last year was great, which says pay the money to continue that production. Yes, it’s happy trails DeSean, but, now we have a hole to fill that we have to squander a draft pick on, happy trails draft pick…and possibly an impact player that could have been addition to, not to replace. Anyway…Anthony Barr!!!
JH, I will say this. Johnny Manziel is not an NFL QB, and will be the biggest bust of draft history, because of all the unnecessary hype he is receiving…
The team that drafts him will be sorry, and the GM will be fired within 3 years – For me he is a more athletic Matt Barkley……Not a good idea…at all
No way in hell will he be the biggest bust ever no fkn way.
Johnny Football is a NFL QB for he will be Drafted tonight and Play in the NFL.. I am not saying he will be an All-Pro or even Good, but he will be drafted and play in the NFL which makes him an NFL QB..
Will he have a 8-10-12 Year Career with Championships, probably not, but can he make plays, win games and excite a Franchise and Fan Base for whoever selects him, yes he can..
Paulman you are correct, I really don’t like Johnny Football and having him and Kelly here would be tough for me to take but he will be drafted and he will play in the NFL. But hey Matt Barkley is a QB in this league and he’s the epitome of a stiff.
I expect that Johnny Football will actually see the Field and Play in the Games …
I don’t believe that Matt Barkley will see the field much and probably will be out of the NFL in a few Years and be a Back-up at best
Johnny Football is going to be a winner…just like he was in college IF he goes to a team that utilizes his talents, that runs the ball and has weapons around him. He has the ‘it’ factor that you can’t teach…he has heart…the moment will never be too big for him…he has a strong arm and a high football IQ…he will make the necessary adjustments for playing in the league.
I don’t believe that the Eagles will get him…I think he is going early but if we do what has been rumored and give away draft picks for Evans…expecting him to replace DJax…that would be foolish…the Eagles should draft for defense…defensive tackle specifically…is what they need!
koolbreeze,
That sounds like you just described Vince Young.
But they both will go down in history, as stiffs regardless…..LOL
no way he last 8 years in the NFL Paul…..Totally disagree, and stand pat on my stance that with all this hype for Johnny Football(BS), He will be the biggest bust ever…..He is MATT BARKLEY WITH MORE ATHLETICISM……That’s it…
Barkley sucks horse cock!!!!
Light a match and set that dumpster on fire please.
LMBO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I didn’t say he would play 8-10 Years in the NFL, Cliff..
Did you read my Post ??
okay Buddy, I read it through….I still disagree
gmc, you must have forgotten Fatmarkus Russell, & Ryan Leaf?
DCar, I don’t know of any prospect that has been hyped up this much, including the two you’ve mentioned……He will be the biggest bust ever..
Well no he won;t. Because he isn;t going 1 or 2 like Leaf, or Jamarcus were. Both those guys were more hyped than Manziel was. Vince Young too….esp coming off the National championship.
He was plastered with the “he’s just a WINNER!” tag too. “All he does is WIN GAMES!.” LOL
I never read as many “he will be a bust” articles with those guys (even though I knew thay’d all be busts” as I have with Manziiel.
Akili Smith drafted 3rd overall was awful but he ran fast.
From PFT
“Texans still want to swap first-round picks this year and add a 2015 pick in the top round to go with a 2014 second-round pick. In place of a third pick in the opening round, though, McClain says that the Texans are now looking for a 2014 third-rounder. There’s no word on how far down in the first round the Texans would be willing to drop in such a move.”
Would you make that deal in order to get your hands on Clowney Mack or Watkins and if you are the Eagles would throw in an additional pick and pretty much mortgage two drafts?
Clowney. Yes
Watkins Mack 50/50.
I would not do this and mortgage the next 2 Drafts for 1 Player, even if it were for Clowney who I think will be an underachiever..
This will be a Big Year for Foles, If he plays well, then he is the Future QB
of the Eagles with a long-term Deal.. If he were to struggle, then Chip Kelly will go all in for the 2015 Draft to get his QB..
He is going to struggle big time Paulman…and anything short of what he did last year will make Kelly look else where. They snatched his biggest weapon from him and it is not fair to expect a rookie to come in and give us what DJax would have given….WR need at least 2 years to develop. We better stock up on defense now…hopefully we can draft a DT that can collapses the pocket and stuff the run..
If the Eagles select someone that comes in and starts, then is as good as Lane Johnson was the 1st round will be a success. I’m hoping for Fuller or Dix. I’ll worry about 2nd and 3rd rounds tomorrow.
Yes Johnson was a GREAT pick last year. He was the best pick the Eagles could have made last year and he will be a better OLman then anyone selected last year.
I see only a Safety who has a chance to be an Eagle Starter in 2014 Season
Any WR or CB or OLB will be a rotational player in the 2014 Season and then compete for a Starters Position come 2015 ..
3rd receiver is a starter now paulman.
An Eagles 3rd Receiver is a Rotational Player along with Double TE Sets and Double running Back Sets that the Eagles will use with McCoy/Sproles..
Any WR the Eagles Select will be a 12-18 Snaps a Game Receiver their Rookie Year..
Labels man depending on the system and the team, last year Denver had 3 starting receivers, if Avant didn’t run like he was pulling a bus the Eagles would have employed more 3 receiver sets. Ertz and Celek are both starters think outside the box man.
Exactly BigL….Avant was a glacier.
“Cool as the other Side of the Pillow” ..
Yes, they will run more 3 Receiver Sets and
More Double TE Sets and more double RB Sets this Season
but just not all at the same time…
You still need 5 OL & 1 QB on every Play
Sheldon Richardson was the best pick they could’ve made last year.
Not at #4!!!
Smitty that was a GMCliff call – some people don’t want to hear that, but last year, trading down was the option that should have been taken……
But like I said some don’t want to admit GMCliff was right….But that’s their problem…Go Eagles!!!!!
I think people are looking at this trade up deal all wrong. In 2011 some guys were held under contract an extra two years and that released a glut of FAs onto the market all at once that year (and of course allowed us to assemble a Dream Team). Since then FA has been weak because everyone good just signed 1-3 years ago. What do you think happens when all these under classmen are coming out? Do you think that makes next year a good draft when all the guys that were supposed to be in the class of ’15 are coming out now? So who cares about trading a pick that should be in the 21-25 range in next year’s draft. I think Chip would gladly give away his first next year to get his guy this year. I think that first next year and maybe a fourth this year gets you way up there. Maybe top five. What does a team like the Raiders need with a 3-4 OLB when they have ran the 4-3 for years? Khalil Mack is not a scheme fit and I could see them making a deal. But that begs the question, how the hell is Clowney a scheme fit for Houston when Romeo Crennell runs a strict two gap 3-4. Clowney cannot be a stand up OLB. He is too big! So what is he going to be a two gap DE with his skinny ass?? I don’t understand what people think!! He only fits with St Louis and Oakland and StL doesn’t need him with Quinn and Long (who can’t hold up full-time at DT). If Houston can’t trade out, Mack is the pick.
Draft Allen Robinson in the first round! He’s the guy that best fits Chip’s system out of all the receivers!
Chip/Belicheat/O’Brien are all masterminds in their own right and they discuss football/talent/schemes on the regular. You don’t think Chip was watching Penn State the last two years and recognizing that a big reason behind O’Brien’s success was Allen Robinson? He’s comfortable with the hurry-up tempo already and I’m sure BOB gave Chip the thumbs up. DRAFT ALLEN ROBINSON!
Okay fellas give me one guy before the madness starts then once the Eagles are on the clock throw your guy out there. My guess right now is Odell Beckham.
Eagles trade down a few spots and then take Xavier Su’a-Filo.
Athletic. Team Captain. Graduate.
That wouldn’t surprise me Vinnnie, he’ll be a pro bowler by his 2nd year.
My boy and his squad at Bleacher Report think he’s the best lineman in the draft.
Lee will be the selection, Tuitt is my preference.
My guy is Cody lattimer big
So stupid that itsa 10 min wait for the pick everyone knows they’ll make.
Gotta love the Jags they get rid of Gabbert and draft Gabbert 2.0. LOL
I love that I just looked at 10 mock drafts and not one had the Jags taking Bortles.
Mock drafts are stupid.
mike evans to tampa vj lil bro
brownies making moves
NOW IS THE TIME TO MOVE UP BIRDS!! JOHNNY FOOTBALL, PRYOR, HA HA, BECKHAM LETS GOOOO
MOSELY!!!
Beckham picked by the giants, DAMMIT
Browns want Manziel, they are frantically trying to get infront of Dallas for him..
My understanding is that the Browns want Bridgewater. I hope manziel does go to Dallas.
Bye bye Beckham.
Beckham will give us fits for years to come
Don’t worry about it. In Chip we trust. 😀
wrong stupid
Manziel just has to get by the Rams and Steelers (who might both want a QB) to make it to the Cowboys.
Can’t wait to watch the Birds chasing that mini-man around and slamming him onto Injured Reserve every year for a decade!
All the Manziel hype. He’s having a Geno Smith moment.
Cowboys going Pryor or Manziel
wrong again stupid
Not Manziel!
Not Pryor either.
I’d never take a Norte Dame player. I like Jerry Jones…as an Eagles fan that is!
Johnny to the Birds????!!!!
jon bequiet they got a olinemen
Hes falling like I predicted…
no u didn’t predict that clown. just today u suggested eagles need to get to 10-13 to get him. u said the cowboys were gonna take him then the giants and somewhere before or between the browns ur clueless
Oh goodness are we going to draft Manziel really?
I want to turn the tv off but i cant…..please no…
WOW the Eagles are going to have Ha Ha Dix fall right into their laps, they better not mess this up.
Big….if hes there…and they pass….rip away….
He has to get past the ravens and green bay
That’s 1 down
Ha Ha or Pryor to the Jets
Or they could use WRs big time…
Foles to Chiefs for Brandon Flowers and picks?
Or take CJ Mosely
dark horse canidate is jets for manziel
Lets see if the Jets take Brandon Cookes
this is setting up very nicely for us. Dix Pryor cooks nix lee or my favorite and wish pick dennard
can’t see Stevie Johnson not getting cut. he’d look good in an eagles uni